New York and Pennsylvania

[TML]

Since 1900, New York and Pennsylvania have been won by the same candidate in all but four presidential elections: 1912, 1932, 1988, and 2016. Given the opinions expressed elsewhere on this forum, could it be the case that at some point this century these two states will no longer consistently vote for the same candidate in the same election?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Long term the GOP will likely be very strong in Pennsylvania. If the trends in the southwest continue and Dems manage to break the polarization of the white vote in the Deep South then the GOP will have to make New York competitive.

So I could see these two states occasionally voting differently.

[The Govanah Jake]

For the time being, they may diverge more then in the past. However this can change in the near future if the republicans moderate and try to develop a sort of northern strategy to counter what will be a much more drastic change in southern voting habits once states like Georgia, South Carolina and other southern states start to become more leaning towards the democratic party as their youth liberalize the states and also the increasing racial minority populations make it harder for republicans to win there. They can make up there loses in the south and in the southwest by expanding in the North and holding onto the rust belt and expanding that. If this were too happen then the two states voting habits could become more alike as they have been in the past.

[Young Moderate Republican]

Long term the GOP will likely be very strong in Pennsylvania. If the trends in the southwest continue and Dems manage to break the polarization of the white vote in the Deep South then the GOP will have to make New York competitive.

So I could see these two states occasionally voting differently.

I doubt Dems would ever break the polarization of the southern white vote. I think the more likely scenario is that they simply get outnumbered.

[SoLongAtlas]

I can see some states in the South shifting to the Dems on occasion due to demographics, namely GA and AL but projection wise it is harder to tell. I read that due to temp increases due to gw a lot of ppl in the South will move to the North - if that happens Dem majority vote share will be diluted and some states might be more tossup or lean R. It is a few decades out at least. http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2060-2069.htm#us-population (Their conclusions are not likely - US ceding back territory, etc. but the pop growth and temperature projections are worth noting.)

[RaphaelDLG]

New York, single-handedly because of New York City's gigantic minority/yuppie population, is politically more like California than other R-trending northern states like OH, MI, WI, MN, NH, PA, ME right?