The New Century: A Parliament for The People

[Kamala]

Could you possibly provide a list of past Prime Ministers?

Ask and ye shall receive.

1. Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic-Farmer-Labor) - 1931-1945
2. Harry S Truman (DFL) - 1945-1948
3. Thomas Dewey (Union for the Republic) - 1948-1951
4. Estes Kefauver (DFL) - 1951-1954
5. Richard M. Nixon (UfR) - 1954-1960
6. John F. Kennedy (DFL) - 1960-1963
7. Lyndon B. Johnson (DFL) - 1963-1968
8. Richard M. Nixon (UfR) - 1968-1973
9. Hubert H. Humphrey (Labor) - 1973-1975
10. James E. Carter (Lab) - 1975-1981
11. Ronald W. Reagan (Conservative) 1981-1990
12. George H.W. Bush (Liberal) - 1990-1993
13. William J. Clinton (Lab) - 1993-1996
14. Newt Gingrich (Con) - 1996-1999
15. Daniel P. Moynihan (Lab) - 1999-2004
16. John Kyl (Con) - 2004-2007
17. John McCain (Lib) - 2007-2010
18. Mark Warner (Lib) - 2010-2013
19. John Boehner (Lib) - 2013-2015
20. Paul Ryan (Lib) - 2015-2016
21. Nancy Pelosi (Lab) - 2016-

[MAINEiac4434]

So the Liberals are sort of free-trading Democrats and non-Freedom Caucus Republicans, while Labor is the Democratic Party's left?

[Kamala]

So the Liberals are sort of free-trading Democrats and non-Freedom Caucus Republicans, while Labor is the Democratic Party's left?

Basically. Labor is less socially liberal too.

[Kamala]

Chapter 1.6: Happy Days

The optimism in Washington was palpable. After nearly ten years of Liberal rule, a new party was back in power. Labor's coalition seemed stable enough, and Prime Minister Pelosi was certain she could pass a large portion of her party's manifesto.

First on the agenda was workers' rights; specifically, the issue of women in the workforce. The Supreme Court decided in the 2007 case Ledbetter v. Goodyear that the statute of limitations for equal-pay suits began at the initial discriminatory salary decision, not with every paycheck. The Parliament crafted the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2017, which clarified that the statute of limitations reset with every paycheck. To appease the Liberal members of the coalition, a 1% corporate tax cut incentive was to be given to small businesses who did not have a single equal-pay suit be brought against them in the past year.


With 228 votes in favor (NI and the NDP joined the government in support) and only 208 in opposition, the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2017 became the first major piece of legislation passed by the Pelosi government. Labor Minister Tim Ryan swore to make sure that Ledbetter was well-enforced throughout the fifty states.


The next goal of Labor was to insure insurance for their traditional base: rural blue-collar workers. A bill written by Rep. Joe Manchin (Lab-Canaan Valley), the Energy Workers' Insurance Guarantee Act, opened government-run hospitals in depressed rural areas, such as West Virginia, Kentucky, western Pennsylvania, and the Ohio River valley, modeled on the VA hospitals. These hospitals, however, served energy workers, primary coal miners, and their families for free, and charged at low rates to treat other citizens.



"Today, we've shown the world that the United States government does care about its most vulnerable families. Our rural areas have suffered, and they've missed out on the increase in quality of life that many of our urban and suburban areas have experienced. These hospitals are the first step in improving the lives of coal miners and their families. Bringing high-quality healthcare out to the forgotten will greatly reduce much of the problems facing our rural folks, including opioid addiction, lung cancer, and other health issues."

The week after the passage of Ledbetter, the EWIG Act passed once again with margins greater than the government's majority; this time, ten Conservatives from Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania stood in approval of the Act.


Health Minister Michelle Lujan-Grisham celebrated the passage, and at a press conference following the signing of the act, lauded its potential for success.

"In addition to its obvious benefits, this bill could also be the stepping stone to something greater. If EWIG hospitals become very successful, it will show that the government could be a major player when it comes to healthcare. A roaring success in West Virginia could bring about a new chapter about healthcare and how we view it in America."

Meanwhile, a new door opened up in foreign policy. On a ceremonial tour of Europe, Pelosi also visited Ukraine.



Despite the publication of this meeting as merely an introductory meet-and-greet with world leaders, Pelosi's visit to Kyiv also included an important confidential meeting with President Petro Poroshenko, as well as Giorgi Margvelashvili, president of Georgia, and Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan.

[In this TL, Russia declines to intervene in either Ukraine or Georgia, thus Crimea is still part of Ukraine and the Russo-Georgian War never happened.]

The issue at hand: their membership in NATO. Pelosi believed a strong coalition of states beyond simply Europe was necessary to temper Russian aggression in Europe and the Middle East. While her predecessors were more cautious when it came to foreign policy, not wanting to repeat the mistakes of John Kyl, and refused to even consider Ukraine, Georgia, or Azerbaijan's entrance into NATO, Pelosi was a lot more pragmatic.

Thus, behind closed doors in the Mariyinsky Palace, all three of those countries' NATO ambitions were legitimized. Pelosi has stated that the United States would officially support each of those countries joining the defense treaty.

While this would not become public for several months, optimism spread within the Labor party as news reached back home.

It seemed as if nothing could stop Pelosi right now. Successes at home and abroad, it's as if something was bound to go wrong soon.

[Kamala]

Chapter 1.7: Something is Rotten in the State of Texas

While the Liberal Party was facing a leadership crisis at the national level, it also saw problems form in one of its most important states. In fact, Texas was vital for all three major parties' strength. At a boisterous crowd in Houston, Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller was brewing up a storm.


"Howdy y'all!

I've got an important message for y'all, now that the socialist Pelosi is this nation's Prime Minister. It is time that Texas finally gets the respect it deserves from the rest of the country. I promise I will fight Pelosi at every turn. I will fight Paul Ryan at every turn when he threatens our Texan values. I will even fight Cathy Rodgers if she doesn't respect Texas and what it represents.

From Beaumont to El Paso, from Brownsville to Amarillo, Texas has a culture that the rest of the country doesn't understand. But it all makes sense - after all, we were an independent country for years before we were absorbed into the United States. It's high time that we regain our status as the premier state in the Union.

Which is why, y'all, I am announcing the formation of the Texan National Party. We will seek to uphold Texan values at the national level. We will run candidates in every constituency in our great state. We will push for an independence referendum, oil drilling freedom, and bring a halt to the liberal, socialist agenda that the witch in Washington has been crafting.

Join me, and together, let's seize the day! Make Texas Independent Again!"

The crowd went wild. Howling shouts repeated Miller's final sentence. It really seemed as if the enthusiasm is there for the Texan National Party to sweep the state offices of Texas as well as many of the 36 constituencies in the state.

However, not everyone was pleased.



Former Conservative representative and Governor Kay Bailey Hutchinson was on CNN the next day as many Texan officials and representatives were scrambling for a sane voice.

"I do agree greatly with the proposition that Texas ought to have its voice heard better in Parliament. For far too long we've been kicked to curb in favor of the other 49 states.

Yet Sid Miller managed to turn such an important idea into a disgusting movement, filled with hate and half-baked ideas. His sexism is palpable. I disagree with nearly all of the Prime Minister's positions, but I respect her as a person and as a leader. She is not a 'witch,' Mr. Miller. She is your Prime Minister, so you ought to respect her. Hasn't your mother taught you better than that?

Additionally, the proposition of an independent Texas is ridiculous to me, and should, as well, be to anyone with a brain. You have to be a blubbering lunatic to believe that Texas isn't stronger in the United States than it would be independent. Besides, how would Texas be able to accomplish many of the programs that have helped it succeed and grow? Much of the oil processed in the Houston area comes from North Dakota and Canada. Texas surely wouldn't be able to join NAFTA, because it would only incite Quebecois independence fervor in Canada and give it legitimacy. They would never be able to amend and join the agreement. Texas also depends on federal infrastructure to protect its southern border - otherwise, drugs and cartel violence would simply spill into our great state.

If you're watching this, Sid, I only have one thing to tell you: next time, do your homework before opening your mouth."

[MAINEiac4434]

I am really, really enjoying this.

[Kamala]

Before the next update, here is some polling.

If the election was held today, which party would you vote for? [Undecided leaners added to party]
Labor - 39%
Conservative - 25%
Liberal - 21%
Farmer-Populist - 5%
Texan National - 3%
Libertarian - 3%
New Deseret - <1%
True undecided - 4%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nancy Pelosi is handling her job as prime minister?
Approve - 63%
Disapprove - 32%
No opinion - 5%

[Liberal voters only] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Paul Ryan is handling his job as party leader?
Approve - 39%
Disapprove - 45%
No opinion - 15%

[Liberal voters only] Who will you vote for in the January 25th Liberal Party leadership election?
Paul Ryan [incumbent] - 41%
Steve Scalise - 33%
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen - 18%
Undecided - 8%

[Voters in Texas only] Do you approve or disapprove of the Texan National Party?
Approve - 37%
Disapprove - 35%
No opinion - 16%
Never heard of it - 12%

[Voters in Texas only] Do you approve or disapprove of Sid Miller, founder of the Texan National Party?
Approve - 24%
Disapprove - 27%
No opinion - 29%
Never heard of him - 20%

[Kingpoleon]

I don't quite understand how Cathy McMorris Rodgers leads what seems to be the "socially conservative" party, and Paul Ryan's party is somehow "fiscally conservative." It seems to me the names or ideologies of the two parties should be switched, or their leaders should be. Paul Ryan himself may be fiscally conservative, but the people he typically aligns with are fiscally conservative and socially conservative, him just representing the former wing. On social issues, he opposes SSM, background checks for guns, abortions, and supports strict limits on immigration.

[Kamala]

I don't quite understand how Cathy McMorris Rodgers leads what seems to be the "socially conservative" party, and Paul Ryan's party is somehow "fiscally conservative." It seems to me the names or ideologies of the two parties should be switched, or their leaders should be. Paul Ryan himself may be fiscally conservative, but the people he typically aligns with are fiscally conservative and socially conservative, him just representing the former wing. On social issues, he opposes SSM, background checks for guns, abortions, and supports strict limits on immigration.

To me, Ryan is truly a fiscal conservative at heart. I think he's socially conservative more because of his party. In this TL, he naturally would gravitate toward the Liberals.

[Kingpoleon]

What about Cathy McMorris Rodgers? How is she more socially conservative?

[Kamala]

What about Cathy McMorris Rodgers? How is she more socially conservative?

http://www.ontheissues.org/House/Cathy_McMorris-Rodgers.htm
This is what I based it on. If you disagree, write your own TL

[Kingpoleon]

I didn't mean to sound critical. I was just curious.

[Kamala]

Chapter 1.8: The Most Tumultuous Week (in the Middle East)

January 15th, 2017 - Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon had an announcement to make. He was at the end of his rope with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Despite Kahlon's demands, the rest of the Netanyahu government refused to pass a rent control measure for urban centers.

"Prime Minister Netanyahu's refusal to work together with Kulanu to pass a rent control measure, an issue vital to our party, is indicative of the direction he wants to lead this country in. Netanyahu's haughtiness has not gone unnoticed. As of today, Kulanu will no longer support the current government. We know the Israeli people will vote for the right party to fulfill their will; the party that desires to make life better and easier for everyone. I hope you will all join Kulanu in removing Netanyahu from power."

January 19th, 2017- From the northern Syrian town of Qamişlo, a small radio station broadcasted a message that would greatly complicate geopolitics even further in the Middle East. Hediya Yousef, the Co-President of Rojava, an unrecognized autonomous region in Northern Syria, stated her message.

"For too long, my fellow Rojavans, we have been ignored. Oppressed. Disrespected. Slaughtered. Bashar al-Assad has nearly destroyed Syria with chemical weapons and violations of the most basic human rights of all Syrians. Rojava has shown that the Middle East doesn't have to be a region of the world that the rest views as barbaric. We have been tolerant. We have shown that Kurds and Arabs can coexist. We have shown that freedom of religion is a universal principle. We have even pushed back against Da'esh forces. Thus, I believe it is time. It is time for Rojava to separate itself from Syria. The Cantons of Rojava have today officially declared themselves to be independent."


January 21st, 2017 - The Iraqi Army has seemed to be making no wrong moves recently. It has successful rebutted Da'esh up into Mosul, completely surrounding it by September 2016. However, Da'esh forces within the city were still significant, and a long drawn-out siege seemed more and more likely. Slowly but surely, the Iraqi army eliminated more and more Da'esh soldiers.

By New Year's, the end was in sight. By the 14th, Da'esh was limited to the Wadi Ekkab cemetery and areas surrounding it. A final surge by the Iraqi Army, and Da'esh was completely defeated.

In reciprocal fashion to traditional Da'esh techniques, the Iraqi Army took no prisoners. All around the world, leaders applauded the Iraqi forces for their bravery and efficiency. A major blow was dealt to Da'esh, and the threat of this caliphate was nearly entirely defeated.

January 22nd, 2017 - At a hospital in central Ankara, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was declared dead. An immovable force in Turkish politics for past two decades, Erdoğan succumbed to stomach cancer at the age of 62. His Prime Minister, Binali Yıldırım, spoke with a tear in his eye.

"President Erdoğan was a great man for our nation. He fought against the powers that threaten our country with zeal and enthusiasm. We must respect his memory in the coming days. We must do what is best for our country, what Erdoğan would have wanted. Do not succumb to political opportunism, merely do what is good."

[Kamala]

Chapter 1.9: Survival of the Fittest
Note: I can't write a script for debates.

Paul Ryan thought he was safe - after all, he did capture the spirit of the Liberal Party at the leadership debate yesterday, while Ileana and Steve mostly sparred with each other. He had momentum, and was bound to most likely win a majority of the vote - at least the Liberal party members, although the Parliamentary Representatives would likely vote against him.

Yet as the results trickled in, Paul was nervous. Votes were coming in much more strongly for his opponents. He still had a lead, but it evaporated away slowly.

At the end of the long night, Paul cautiously celebrated. All the news channels had called the election for Paul. While he was satisfied, he wasn't happy.



He barely won with just a bit more than 40% of the total vote. He had nearly lost his plurality in Parliamentary votes to Steve - and had the loyalty of even fewer than the votes he got. Nearly two-thirds of his Party voted against him, and whipping party-line votes was sure to be even more difficult than usual. His only saving grace was his relatively popularity with party voters, who appreciated his efforts to salvage the party rather than push it in a direction it didn't need to.

The next three years would be difficult. The parliamentary Liberal party was nearly ungovernable.

[MAINEiac4434]

Do you mind posting the history of leaders for each party?

[Kamala]

Do you mind posting the history of leaders for each party?

I'll do the major parties -

DFL -> Labor
FDR 1931-1945
Truman 1945-1948
Adlai Stevenson 1948-1950
Estes Kefauver 1950-1956
Adlai Stevenson 1956-1959
JFK 1959-1963
LBJ 1963-1968
HHH 1968-1971 (as leader of DFL)
HHH 1971-1975 (as leader of Labor)
Jimmy Carter 1975-1981
Ted Kennedy 1981-1992
Bill Clinton 1992-1996
Daniel P. Moynihan 1996-2004
Dick Gephardt 2005-2009
Steny Hoyer 2009-2014
Nancy Pelosi 2014 -

UFR
Charles Curtis 1931-1934
William Borah 1934-1940
Robert Taft 1940-1947
Thomas Dewey 1947-1952
Richard Nixon 1952-1963
Barry Goldwater 1963-1964
Richard Nixon 1964-1973
Gerald Ford 1973

Liberal
Gerald Ford 1973-1974
John B. Anderson 1974-1981
Larry Pressler 1981-1987
George H.W. Bush 1987-1993
Richard Lugar 1993-2000
George W. Bush 2000-2004
John McCain 2004-2010
Mark Warner 2010-2013
John Boehner 2013-2015
Paul Ryan 2015-

Conservative
Ronald Reagan 1973-1990
Jeane Kirkpatrick 1990-1994
Newt Gingrich 1994-1999
Bob Dole 1999-2003
John Kyl 2003-2008
Mike Huckabee 2008-2012
Cathy McMorris Rodgers 2012-

(Seeing as "The American Parliament" is an existing TL, I also changed the name of this TL. Sorry for any confusion!)

[MAINEiac4434]

Damn, Teddy is opposition leader for twelve years and never PM. Sad.

What's Hillary up to?

[Kamala]

Damn, Teddy is opposition leader for twelve years and never PM. Sad.

What's Hillary up to?

I'm not sure. Maybe she's the Labor representative from AR-02?

[GoTfan]

Damn, Teddy is opposition leader for twelve years and never PM. Sad.

What's Hillary up to?

I'm not sure. Maybe she's the Labor representative from AR-02?

Bernie?

[Kamala]

Damn, Teddy is opposition leader for twelve years and never PM. Sad.

What's Hillary up to?

I'm not sure. Maybe she's the Labor representative from AR-02?

Bernie?

Corbynesque backbencher for Vermont At-Large.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Fascinating TL, definitely one of the best here. Loved it!

[Kamala]

Chapter 1.10 : The Rite of Spring

The Pelosi government was on top of the world - American optimism has reached an all-time high. Opposition parties such as the Liberals have effectively neutered themselves.  A poll conducted by Fox found that Labor's popularity is at an all time high, at its highest since the Clinton government.

If the election was held today, which party would you vote for? [Undecided leaners added to party]
Labor - 44%
Conservative - 23%
Liberal - 18%
Farmer-Populist - 4%
Texan National - 4%
Libertarian - 2%
New Deseret - <1%
True undecided - 5%

Yet a few roadblocks have begun to emerge. A court case, Bevin v. Beshear, made its way up to the Supreme Court. Kentucky's Conservative governor blocked the Ministry of Health from beginning the construction of an EWIG hospital in Maysville via an executive order. KY Attorney General Andy Beshear (of the Labor party) refused to grant the injunction, leading Governor Bevin to sue the Attorney General for refusing to uphold state law.

The case moved up through the court system, and was just granted certiorari by the Supreme Court. Experts agree that a decision in favor of Beshear would effectively solidify the constitutionality of EWIG hospitals and restrict state governments' abilities to stop their construction. A decision for Bevin would leave the question in the air.


Meanwhile, in foreign policy, Nancy Pelosi consulted her Justice Minister, close friend, and trusted confidante Barack Obama. Despite not being involved in foreign affairs, Barack was a key advisor for Nancy, regardless of her action.



It was now mid March. Rojava declared its independent over a month ago, and two countries have already recognized it as an independent state - Finland and the Czech Republic. Nancy believed it was time the United States also did, as it would create a snowball effect and quickly grant legitimacy to the fledgling republic.

Yet she was unsure of its repercussions. Even though Bashar Al-Assad was a murderous dictator, the question of whether Rojavan independence would further destabilize the region was almost of greater concern. Iraq, an ally, and Turkey, a country still trying to fill the power vacuum after the death of Erdogan, would surely be angered, as Kurds inside those countries might become inspired and mobilized to declare independence as well. Russia would also throw a fit, seeing as Assad is an important ally of theirs.

But Barack reassured Nancy. He reminded her that Labor needs to be on the right side of history, and the right side of history included standing up for the Kurds. Everything will be resolved in the end, he said. His trademark optimism never ceased to shine.

After he left her office, Nancy sat alone in the Oval Office, contemplating what to do.

At 1:38 A.M., she drafted a resolution to recognize Rojava. She was certain it would be successfully passed, but also that she was ready to fix any foreign policy woes that would come afterwards.

The next day, debate over the resolution continued for just a few hours, with many speeches given praising the Rojavans and their dedication to human rights and democratic values. Only one Representative, Dana Rohrabacher, voiced his concerns, rather aggressively, claiming passage of this resolution would lead to war with Russia.

That evening, the Resolution to Recognize the Autonomous Cantons of Rojava as Independent passed the Parliament, on a vote of 435-1, with Mr. Rorhabacher casting the sole opposition vote.

The Results of the Dutch General Election


The Dutch were obviously tired of seven years of VVD rule; yet, in a rejection of far-right populism, they chose not to vote for the PVV. Instead, the Netherlands tilted slightly left, following the United States' movement. All around the world, centre-right politics were being rejected in favor of more socially and economically liberal beliefs.

Additionally, the CDA collapsed in support, bleeding significant amounts to the more economically liberal Christian Union and the more conservative SGP.

A centre-left coalition of D66, GL, PvdA, SP, CU, and 50+ is seen as the most likely future path. Alternatively, a right-wing coalition of the VVD, D66, PVV, and CDA is seen as the only path for a right-wing party, but no one wants to work with the PVV.

Finally, a centrist grand coalition of the VVD, D66, GL, and PvdA is seen as the alternative.

[mvd10]

The Results of the Dutch General Election


The Dutch were obviously tired of seven years of VVD rule; yet, in a rejection of far-right populism, they chose not to vote for the PVV. Instead, the Netherlands tilted slightly left, following the United States' movement. All around the world, centre-right politics were being rejected in favor of more socially and economically liberal beliefs.

Additionally, the CDA collapsed in support, bleeding significant amounts to the more economically liberal Christian Union and the more conservative SGP.

A centre-left coalition of D66, GL, PvdA, SP, CU, and 50+ is seen as the most likely future path. Alternatively, a right-wing coalition of the VVD, D66, PVV, and CDA is seen as the only path for a right-wing party, but no one wants to work with the PVV.

Finally, a centrist grand coalition of the VVD, D66, GL, and PvdA is seen as the alternative.

I seriously doubt a coalition like that would ever be a possibility. D66-GL-PvdA-SP-CDA would be more likely (but still very unlikely). We probably would get a centrist  coalition led by the VVD in this case. Maybe even VVD-D66-GL-CDA (the one we might get irl, but the coalition in this timeline would be more left-wing since GL won more seats here than irl).

But I love this timeline

[Kamala]

I seriously doubt a coalition like that would ever be a possibility. D66-GL-PvdA-SP-CDA would be more likely (but still very unlikely). We probably would get a centrist  coalition led by the VVD in this case. Maybe even VVD-D66-GL-CDA (the one we might get irl, but the coalition in this timeline would be more left-wing since GL won more seats here than irl).

But I love this timeline

Thanks! I was trying to see if its possible to avoid a GreenRight scenario, but I'll definitely take one of your suggestions as the final government (once the one IRL is formed.)

I was just thinking, would ChristeUnie's economically progressive positions ever get it to enter in a centre-left coalition? And, a D66-GL-PvdA-SP-CU would have 73 - which party would be best suited to provide those last 3 seats? DENK? I'm obviously not that well versed in Dutch politics

[mvd10]

I seriously doubt a coalition like that would ever be a possibility. D66-GL-PvdA-SP-CDA would be more likely (but still very unlikely). We probably would get a centrist  coalition led by the VVD in this case. Maybe even VVD-D66-GL-CDA (the one we might get irl, but the coalition in this timeline would be more left-wing since GL won more seats here than irl).

But I love this timeline

Thanks! I was trying to see if its possible to avoid a GreenRight scenario, but I'll definitely take one of your suggestions as the final government (once the one IRL is formed.)

I was just thinking, would ChristeUnie's economically progressive positions ever get it to enter in a centre-left coalition? And, a D66-GL-PvdA-SP-CU would have 73 - which party would be best suited to provide those last 3 seats? DENK? I'm obviously not that well versed in Dutch politics

Nobody wants to work with DENK, they're as toxic as the PVV among most mainstream parties. CU isn't that left-wing on economic issues anymore, I'd say they are pretty centrist on economics but they wouldn't have much problems with joining a centre-left government. They would demand a block on progressive legislation on issues like abortion and euthanasia though, and I don't think D66 wants that. That's the main reason we might not get a VVD-CDA-D66-CU government irl even though I thought it was the obvious choice.

I'm not sure who could provide the last 3 seats. 50+ said they won't join a coalition unless the retirement age was lowered to 65 (extremely unrealistic even with a global left-wing comeback) and PvdD says influence is more important than power (they would rather shift the overton window than join a cabinet). And you also have to take the senate into account. The last senate elections were in March 2015 so I don't think they are different in this timeline. VVD-CDA-PVV-SGP have 36 out of 75 seats in the senate, so it becomes very hard to form a coalition without any of these parties, basically every other party would have to team up. And the PvdA still suffered the biggest loss in Dutch parliamentary history in this timeline so I'm not sure whether they want to be part of a government again.

In the end I still think we would end up with a GreenRight cabinet after months of gridlock (though it would be significantly to the left of the GreenRight we might get irl because VVD/CDA have much less leverage).  If you really want a progressive cabinet I think D66-GL-PvdA-SP-CDA is the best option. Klaver and Roemer actually pushed for it irl, but nobody really wanted it. It would be suicide for the CDA, but it might be possible if Buma's right-wing campaign is blamed for the terrible result and he is replaced by someone from the left of the CDA. Maybe VVD-D66-GL-PvdA with outside support from some other parties (in the senate) is an option, but I don't think anyone really wants a government without a majority in the senate anymore.

Maybe you could have a GreenRight coalition in which someone from D66 is the PM? GL and D66 combined have more seats than VVD and CDA combined and it happened a few times in the 60s and 70s that someone from a small party became PM. The VVD probably would refuse it, but if the country really is that tired of Rutte in this TL they might not have another choice. I don't think it's very likely though, I think the 2 options I named earlier are much more likely.