Parties Reversed
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Parties Reversed
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Author Topic: Parties Reversed  (Read 601 times)
True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 02, 2005, 03:06:52 PM »
« edited: August 02, 2005, 03:29:30 PM by Senator True Independent »

I've created a timeline starting in 1976 that ends in 2004.  I'll work backwords.

First off, let me tell you this will be the final result.  I know, 2004 reversed.  Smiley



After easily receiving the Democratic nomination when former President Clinton decided not to run for the nomination, labor activist and Governor Evan Bayh, a Democrat from Indiana, yes a Democrat, decides to pick the youthful Utah Senator Jim Matheson.  This is seen as an odd pick, but it cements the growing Democratic stronghold in the Mountain West.  The Mormon Church immediately comes out and endorses Bayh.

For the Republicans, it's hard to pick someone to replace three term beloved President Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania.  Vice-President Thompson decides to return to Wisconsin to run for an open Senate seat.  The nomination is between New York outspoken Representative George G. Pataki and Masschusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  Romney, a Protestant convert from Mormonism is immediately shunned by the Mormon Church.  Seven years earlier he left the church because of disagreeance on social issues.  Romney is seen as one of the most socially liberal Republican governors.Romney easily beats Pataki simply because of name recognition, though Pataki pulls upsets in a few primaries:

Blue: Romney
Red: Pataki



Romney chooses Vermont Republican Representative Patrick Leahy as his running mate.  This angers many conservatives out West.

In the general election campaign, Bayh starts off with a large lead early on because of his success in the interior West more than any other Democrat has pulled since Carter's historic reelection victory.  Bayh holds his lead throughout the campaign.  On election day it is closer than expected, but Bayh pulls out a win.  In the Mountain West Bayh does much better than ever expected.  He upsets Romney in Kansas, Wyoming (Mormon vote), and Virginia, but loses California, Michigan, Minnesota, and Hawaii.  Hawaii is the biggest surprise where the Republican machine has been working hard ever since Specter gave autonomy rights to the native Pacfic islanders in that region.

Bayh/Matheson: 53%, 286 electoral votes
Romney/Leahy: 46%, 252 electoral votes



Bayh's best state is West Virginia, where he receives 65.7%, with second being Arkansas where he gets 61.9%.  Romney's best state is New Hampshire (68.1%) followed by Maine (67.4%) with a close third being Massachusetts (66.9%) with fourth being Vermont (60.2%).
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Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2005, 03:17:37 PM »

very good I like it.
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True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

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« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2005, 03:28:41 PM »

2000:

After one term of being President, President Bill Clinton, a decidingly populist pro-life Democrat has seen approvals as high as 80%.  As election year rolled around, his approval went back down to about 60%.  After an unoppposed nomination, Clinton decided to drop former Iowa Governor Tom Harkin from the ticket and instead pick up Montana Democratic Senator Conrad Burns.  This is part of a new Democratic strategy to pick up Libertarian voters out West.  However, many Democrats in the upper midwest refuse to endorse Clinton, including Harkin. 

After the passage of the 28th to the constitution, repealing the 22nd amendment, the Republican leadership decides to ask former President Arlen Specter to make a run for a third term.  Although he first refuses, he eventually declares his intention to seek the Presidency for a "third and final term" as he calls it.  No Republican delcares against him in the primaries.  When he left office four years earlier, Specter had approvals in the low 70s, and four years later his popularity has only increased.  His favorability rating has been tracked anywhere from 73-84.  For his Vice-President, he does not choose for VP and 1996 losing candidate Pete Wilson of California, but instead tries to pick up on Democratic discontent with Clinton in the upper midwest and chooses Wisconsin Governor A. Ed Thompson (look at Wisconsin Governor's race 2002), who is known as a very Libertarian Republican. 

The race ranges from Clinton leads of 4 to Specter leads of 12.  this proves Specter a fairly large advantage going into election day.

On election day, many upsets are found.  These include Specter in Minnesota, Iowa, and Ohio.  Clinton wins Idaho and Montana and does very well in the Great Plains states (North Dakota through Kansas).  Clinton even picks up California.  However, this combined with his huge victories in the South is not enough to put him over the top.  Specter wins a third term in a close election.

Specter/Thompson: 49%, 277 electoral votes
Clinton/Burns: 49%, 261 electoral votes

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True Democrat
true democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,368
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2005, 06:01:54 PM »

1996:

After two terms of President Specter (who is wildly popular) the people ready for a change.  In the Democratic primaries there are three main candidates.  They are Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas, Iowa Governor Tom Harkin, and New York Governor Mario Cuomo, the last of a dying breed of liberal Democrats.  Harkin easily wins Iowa, however, with the help of Zell Miller, the 1992 candidate, helps Clinton in the primaries as he is now heading the Democratic party and is a friend of Clinton.  Miller changes the primary schedule so Southern states are first after Iowa and New Hampshire, followed by the West, followed by the Midwest, and finally liberal Northeastern and West Coast states.  This enables Clinton to get early lead and win easily even with Harkin's upset in New Hampshire.

Red: Clinton
Blue: Harkin
Green: Cuomo



At the convention, in order to secure the nomination and unite the party, Clinton chooses Harkin as the VP candidate.

For the Republicans, the obvious favorite is moderate VP and former Governor of California Pete Wilson.  An unknown conservative challenges him early and pulls 25% in New Hampshire, but Wilson still goes onto win every primary with Specter's endorsement.

Wilson picks Ernest J. Istook, Jr., a little known Oklahoma Representative with a strictly conservative record.  This is used to balance out the ticket.

Wilson starts out leading Clinton 54-29, mainly because of Clinton's low name recognition.  However, once Miller starts campaigning for Clinton, he becomes a much more recognizable figure.  Clinton easily narrows the gap with his truly powerful way of speaking, great charisma, and upbeat populist message.  Going into election night, Clinton is running about 50-50 with Wilson, who has made many blunders on the campaign.

On election night, Clinton shocks the country by garnering over 350 electoral votes.  He even takes New York, with great help from Mario Cuomo.  Clinton takes the entire South and even tops 70% in his home state and Miller's home state of Georgia.  The biggest surprise of the night however is Clinton's win in California.  However none of the networks are able to declare a winner by midnight.  Clinton is leading in California by only 7,000 and in New York by only  5,000.  Clinton needs only one of these to win, while Wilson needs both.  A recount is taken in California, and it shows Clinton up by 11,942.  Wilson concedes both New York and California to Clinton.  The popular vote is not nearly as close as the electoral college (which wasnt that close because Clinton won NY and CA, but the votes were close).  One good area for the Republicans is Minnesota. This state has since the 1960s been known as a hugely liberal Democratic state, however Clinton barely wins it.  It is a clear indication of the state moving to the right.

Clinton/Harkin: 52%, 351 electoral votes
Wilson/Istook: 47%, 187 electoral votes

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