Is GA-06 gerrymandered?

[Simfan34]

Tom Perez said the other day that the problem for the Dems in GA-06 was that it was gerrymandered. Was he right, or is he just seeking excuses?

[Brittain33]

It's not gerrymandered in itself, but neighboring district GA-11 is and other neighbor GA-7 is the shape it is in order to "pack" Dem voters in 3 districts.

[Gass3268]

Yes, Republicans admitted to this just over the weekend.

[Adam Griffin]

I don't really feel that GA-6 was an intentional gerrymander in the sense that anybody expected the area to become competitive at all in this decade. I would say 7 and 11 are definitely more so than 6; especially in conjunction with 5, in order to ensure no other metro district could become competitive this decade (whoops).

GA-12 - at the time - was probably the most obvious of them all: just a blatant attempt to unseat Barrow (again).

[krazen1211]

What a load of Malarkey!


The GA-06 that the Democrat party created in 1991 and again in 2001 was more Republican than the current iteration drawn by the Republican party. They are the ones who placed GA-06 in the Northern Suburbs of Atlanta.


Take a look at what the Democrat party does.

[Adam Griffin]

Perhaps the GOP had precognition, and saw all of these rumbles coming this decade. If so, then this is exactly why the GOP packed GA-5 and put it where they did, along with making the other 2 VRA districts just a couple of points blacker than was needed. Compared to below, potentially sacrificing GA-6 would be a bargain.

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It's really not that much of a difference (3 points on average), but in conjunction with moving GA-5 to the north just a bit, you potentially get a totally different result in today's climate.

I'm largely using interstate and major highway boundaries wherever possible, since that's just as relevant of a boundary in metro ATL as anything. I started out drawing the 3 VRA metro districts in a reasonable fashion, followed by GA-5 to the north. I left GA-2 & 14 identical and effectively identical, respectively, since Bishop's VRA district is legit and 14's configuration is about as fair as one can get being tucked in the corner of the state. Filled in the blanks from there.

GA-5 becomes a majority-white VAP (55%) district that went 65% Obama (59.5% agg Dem), becoming a fifth reliable Democratic district. Prior to Trump, that'd be where the interest in this map ends for the most part.

The problem is that if this current climate is indicative of trends that'd be present throughout the broader metro, then you'd have three more vulnerable metro districts. McCain's 08 margin in GA-6, GA-7 and GA-11 below are smaller (20, 17 and 18 points, respectively) than Romney's 12 margin in the real-life GA-6 and are of similar consistency. Potentially, you now have 7 solidly Democratic and/or vulnerable districts in the metro: every single one of them.

Of course, you also still have Bishop's district on top of that. So we're at 8 non-safe GOP seats.

But it doesn't stop there necessarily. GA-10 is arguably at least as competitive as some of those northern metro districts (McCain 52-46; agg Dem 47%). It includes Augusta, Columbia County (if you have suburbia around ATL rebelling, then you likely have movement here, too), a small portion of Athens and a decent chunk of Barrow's final stomping grounds. It would make for an odd coalition and would require an ideal candidate perhaps, but potentially vulnerable nonetheless.

Then, you have GA-1, which McCain won by 8 (agg. Dem 46%). Not too different in raw numbers from the current GA-1, but considering that the more polarized portions of the real-life GA-1 are cut out + you have a higher than average percentage of suburban moderates in both Chatham and Effingham, and suddenly this district doesn't look quite that safe, either.

Anyway, the point is that one can't just look at the lines in a GOPmander and say it's gerrymandered or not. Allocate the Dem votes just a tad bit differently with boundaries that make sense/are neat and you suddenly have reduced the GOP to a minority of seats being guaranteed for them - especially in Trump's climate. Losing GA-6 being the worst-case scenario doesn't look like that bad of a deal.

[publicunofficial]

If GA-06 is a gerrymander, it's a very clever one because I don't see it.

That being said you could easily put another majority-minority seat in the Atlanta metro.

[Lachi]

If GA-06 is a gerrymander, it's a very clever one because I don't see it.

That being said you could easily put another majority-minority seat in the Atlanta metro.

Or it could be am unintentional one, but that's also extremely unlikely.
I do agree with the second sentence though.

[DrScholl]

Considering that a Republican state Senator said that the lines were not drawn for a Democrat to represent that district...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

How would the previous version of GA-06 (2006-2013) have voted in 2016?

[publicunofficial]

Considering that a Republican state Senator said that the lines were not drawn for a Democrat to represent that district...

That State Senator may just be an old man whose logic is "A District with northern Fulton county and parts of Cobb? There's no WAY a Democrat can win that!" because he doesn't get how trends work.

Hell you can draw a very clean and fair GA-06 that drops the DeKalb portion altogether in exchange for more of Cobb that's Safe R even by 2016 standards.

[Barnes]

Considering that a Republican state Senator said that the lines were not drawn for a Democrat to represent that district...

That State Senator may just be an old man whose logic is "A District with northern Fulton county and parts of Cobb? There's no WAY a Democrat can win that!" because he doesn't get how trends work.

"At a GOP breakfast on the district’s eastern DeKalb outskirts, state Sen. Fran Millar criticized Democrats who think it’s a 'done deal that this kid’s going to become the Congressman.'

" 'I’ll be very blunt: These lines were not drawn to get Hank Johnson’s protégé to be my representative. And you didn’t hear that,' said Millar. 'They were not drawn for that purpose, OK? They were not drawn for that purpose.' "

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/15/warring-republicans-try-to-unite-against-ossoff-in-georgias-sixth/

[krazen1211]

This map is much better.

https://ibb.co/edbnAk

[Tintrlvr]

Looking at the border with GA-11, it is obviously gerrymandered. The Fulton parts of GA-11 should be in GA-6, and the Cobb parts of GA-6 should be in GA-11. If those were switched (with maybe a small part of Cobb staying in GA-6 for population equality, not sure exactly how the population works out), Ossoff would have won an easy majority, probably over 55%.

[JerryArkansas]

How would the previous version of GA-06 (2006-2013) have voted in 2016?

The old 6th is comparable to the new 11th, so somewhat along those lines.

[krazen1211]

Looking at the border with GA-11, it is obviously gerrymandered. The Fulton parts of GA-11 should be in GA-6, and the Cobb parts of GA-6 should be in GA-11. If those were switched (with maybe a small part of Cobb staying in GA-6 for population equality, not sure exactly how the population works out), Ossoff would have won an easy majority, probably over 55%.

Hmm, what?

Buckhead was put into the 11th district, but it came out of the prior 5th district, not the prior 6th district. Many homeowners in Buckhead were upset at having all-talk no action John Lewis as their Congressman and requested that they be freed from that district.

At the time, Democrats were upset about Buckhead being split away from the 5th district! And here you are claiming that Buckhead should go into the 6th district.

For the record, though, the Buckhead section of Atlanta cast 2/3 of its vote for Congressman Loudermilk in the 2016 elections! The swap you propose is at best break even for the Democrat party and could even worsen their performance in the 6th district.

[krazen1211]

How would the previous version of GA-06 (2006-2013) have voted in 2016?

Roughly 54-41 Trump.

[Bacon King]

Looking at the border with GA-11, it is obviously gerrymandered. The Fulton parts of GA-11 should be in GA-6, and the Cobb parts of GA-6 should be in GA-11. If those were switched (with maybe a small part of Cobb staying in GA-6 for population equality, not sure exactly how the population works out), Ossoff would have won an easy majority, probably over 55%.

Hmm, what?

Buckhead was put into the 11th district, but it came out of the prior 5th district, not the prior 6th district. Many homeowners in Buckhead were upset at having all-talk no action John Lewis as their Congressman and requested that they be freed from that district.

At the time, Democrats were upset about Buckhead being split away from the 5th district! And here you are claiming that Buckhead should go into the 6th district.

For the record, though, the Buckhead section of Atlanta cast 2/3 of its vote for Congressman Loudermilk in the 2016 elections! The swap you propose is at best break even for the Democrat party and could even worsen their performance in the 6th district.

That section of Buckhead was specifically moved from the 6th district to the 11th district in the very last revision of the current map because of concerns about the 6th district potentially becoming competitive later in the decade.

(the other major change in that final revision was putting Moody AFB into the 1st district to give Kingston more sway on the Armed Forces Committee)

[scutosaurus]

Looking at the border with GA-11, it is obviously gerrymandered. The Fulton parts of GA-11 should be in GA-6, and the Cobb parts of GA-6 should be in GA-11. If those were switched (with maybe a small part of Cobb staying in GA-6 for population equality, not sure exactly how the population works out), Ossoff would have won an easy majority, probably over 55%.

Hmm, what?

Buckhead was put into the 11th district, but it came out of the prior 5th district, not the prior 6th district. Many homeowners in Buckhead were upset at having all-talk no action John Lewis as their Congressman and requested that they be freed from that district.

At the time, Democrats were upset about Buckhead being split away from the 5th district! And here you are claiming that Buckhead should go into the 6th district.

For the record, though, the Buckhead section of Atlanta cast 2/3 of its vote for Congressman Loudermilk in the 2016 elections! The swap you propose is at best break even for the Democrat party and could even worsen their performance in the 6th district.

Evidently you aren't actually from the area being referred to. Buckhead is conservative compared to many areas of Atlanta, but it is not as conservative as East Cobb, no matter how you look at it. Congressman Loudermilk ran against a no-name candidate, Don Wilson, whose campaign, according to FEC reports, had not received a single donation by September 30th of last year. (http://www.mdjonline.com/news/don-wilson-challenging-barry-loudermilk-house-seat/article_d49970a0-9be8-11e6-8ce4-8378c8c68ddd.html) It's to be expected that Buckhead would cast 2/3 of its vote for Loudermilk. Also, I have no idea whatsoever what your first paragraph is supposed to mean. It makes no sense.

And yes, GA-06 is gerrymandered, as State Senator Fran Millar admitted. It's not as bad as some, but it was created by a partisan assembly. All districts created this way are gerrymandered, more or less.

[krazen1211]

Looking at the border with GA-11, it is obviously gerrymandered. The Fulton parts of GA-11 should be in GA-6, and the Cobb parts of GA-6 should be in GA-11. If those were switched (with maybe a small part of Cobb staying in GA-6 for population equality, not sure exactly how the population works out), Ossoff would have won an easy majority, probably over 55%.

Hmm, what?

Buckhead was put into the 11th district, but it came out of the prior 5th district, not the prior 6th district. Many homeowners in Buckhead were upset at having all-talk no action John Lewis as their Congressman and requested that they be freed from that district.

At the time, Democrats were upset about Buckhead being split away from the 5th district! And here you are claiming that Buckhead should go into the 6th district.

For the record, though, the Buckhead section of Atlanta cast 2/3 of its vote for Congressman Loudermilk in the 2016 elections! The swap you propose is at best break even for the Democrat party and could even worsen their performance in the 6th district.

Evidently you aren't actually from the area being referred to. Buckhead is conservative compared to many areas of Atlanta, but it is not as conservative as East Cobb, no matter how you look at it. Congressman Loudermilk ran against a no-name candidate, Don Wilson, whose campaign, according to FEC reports, had not received a single donation by September 30th of last year. (http://www.mdjonline.com/news/don-wilson-challenging-barry-loudermilk-house-seat/article_d49970a0-9be8-11e6-8ce4-8378c8c68ddd.html) It's to be expected that Buckhead would cast 2/3 of its vote for Loudermilk. Also, I have no idea whatsoever what your first paragraph is supposed to mean. It makes no sense.

And yes, GA-06 is gerrymandered, as State Senator Fran Millar admitted. It's not as bad as some, but it was created by a partisan assembly. All districts created this way are gerrymandered, more or less.

Congressman Loudermilk got 67% of the vote in this territory in the 2016 elections. But he is not the only one. Congressman Gingrey got 70% of the vote in this territory in the 2012 elections. I would provide 2014 numbers but Congressman Loudermilk got over 99% of the vote as he was unopposed.

Suffice to say, this is not territory that this Ossoff fellow would want in the district. And the prior claim was much more than that.....the prior claim was that this sliver of territory would push this Ossoff fellow up to 55% in the district!

Any set of lines involves a set of choices. One benchmark to measure against is the prior set of lines. There is simply no dispute that Georgia Republicans weakened this district by 3 points by 2008 Presidential numbers when they drew the district.

[krazen1211]

Looking at the border with GA-11, it is obviously gerrymandered. The Fulton parts of GA-11 should be in GA-6, and the Cobb parts of GA-6 should be in GA-11. If those were switched (with maybe a small part of Cobb staying in GA-6 for population equality, not sure exactly how the population works out), Ossoff would have won an easy majority, probably over 55%.

Hmm, what?

Buckhead was put into the 11th district, but it came out of the prior 5th district, not the prior 6th district. Many homeowners in Buckhead were upset at having all-talk no action John Lewis as their Congressman and requested that they be freed from that district.

At the time, Democrats were upset about Buckhead being split away from the 5th district! And here you are claiming that Buckhead should go into the 6th district.

For the record, though, the Buckhead section of Atlanta cast 2/3 of its vote for Congressman Loudermilk in the 2016 elections! The swap you propose is at best break even for the Democrat party and could even worsen their performance in the 6th district.

That section of Buckhead was specifically moved from the 6th district to the 11th district in the very last revision of the current map because of concerns about the 6th district potentially becoming competitive later in the decade.

(the other major change in that final revision was putting Moody AFB into the 1st district to give Kingston more sway on the Armed Forces Committee)

I might be willing to agree with you, if such a behavior was rational. But, if the motivation was to safeguard the performance of the 6th district, the legislature would have left a portion of Cherokee district in the district, and certainly not added further areas of Dekalb County into the district.

Perhaps you are simply alleging incompetence, which is fair.

[scutosaurus]

Looking at the border with GA-11, it is obviously gerrymandered. The Fulton parts of GA-11 should be in GA-6, and the Cobb parts of GA-6 should be in GA-11. If those were switched (with maybe a small part of Cobb staying in GA-6 for population equality, not sure exactly how the population works out), Ossoff would have won an easy majority, probably over 55%.

Hmm, what?

Buckhead was put into the 11th district, but it came out of the prior 5th district, not the prior 6th district. Many homeowners in Buckhead were upset at having all-talk no action John Lewis as their Congressman and requested that they be freed from that district.

At the time, Democrats were upset about Buckhead being split away from the 5th district! And here you are claiming that Buckhead should go into the 6th district.

For the record, though, the Buckhead section of Atlanta cast 2/3 of its vote for Congressman Loudermilk in the 2016 elections! The swap you propose is at best break even for the Democrat party and could even worsen their performance in the 6th district.

Evidently you aren't actually from the area being referred to. Buckhead is conservative compared to many areas of Atlanta, but it is not as conservative as East Cobb, no matter how you look at it. Congressman Loudermilk ran against a no-name candidate, Don Wilson, whose campaign, according to FEC reports, had not received a single donation by September 30th of last year. (http://www.mdjonline.com/news/don-wilson-challenging-barry-loudermilk-house-seat/article_d49970a0-9be8-11e6-8ce4-8378c8c68ddd.html) It's to be expected that Buckhead would cast 2/3 of its vote for Loudermilk. Also, I have no idea whatsoever what your first paragraph is supposed to mean. It makes no sense.

And yes, GA-06 is gerrymandered, as State Senator Fran Millar admitted. It's not as bad as some, but it was created by a partisan assembly. All districts created this way are gerrymandered, more or less.

Congressman Loudermilk got 67% of the vote in this territory in the 2016 elections. But he is not the only one. Congressman Gingrey got 70% of the vote in this territory in the 2012 elections. I would provide 2014 numbers but Congressman Loudermilk got over 99% of the vote as he was unopposed.

Suffice to say, this is not territory that this Ossoff fellow would want in the district. And the prior claim was much more than that.....the prior claim was that this sliver of territory would push this Ossoff fellow up to 55% in the district!

Any set of lines involves a set of choices. One benchmark to measure against is the prior set of lines. There is simply no dispute that Georgia Republicans weakened this district by 3 points by 2008 Presidential numbers when they drew the district.

I do agree with you, as a Buckhead resident, that Buckhead is absolutely not a Democratic-friendly area. I was just refuting what you said in that it is potentially more Republican than East Cobb, which is not true. And I completely agree that it is absurd to claim that Ossoff would achieve 55% in the district with Buckhead replacing East Cobb, as, again, it is most certainly a Republican area of Atlanta.
As for the congressional results, you are correct; I can't argue with the results! However, it is important to remember that, due to this district's boundaries, Democrats don't bother running serious candidates, largely due to the presence of the extremely Republican Cherokee and Bartow counties. Again, though: you are definitely correct that both Loudermilk and Gingrey have won District 11 by very significant margins.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

GA-06 here, it voted for Obama by 17 points.

[KingSweden]

I think it's a mild gerrymander in that it was obviously drawn to favor GOP, sort of like Indiana, but it is mild, like Indiana, in that the geographic distribution of votes naturally favors the GOP so few if any shenanigans are needed to get this result. Maryland or NC, this is not