2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yeah, I somehow doubt that Ann Kirkpatrick running against Martha McSally is a good idea. I mean, she could win if people are mad enough at Republicans, but she doesn't seem like a great option to me.

McSally is already losing to a generic Dem by a significant margin.. 43-50.
https://perma.cc/FQ4L-ZWV2

That is a blue trending district and "carpetbagging" isn't a real attack in Arizona from what I've heard

[Figueira]

Yeah, I somehow doubt that Ann Kirkpatrick running against Martha McSally is a good idea. I mean, she could win if people are mad enough at Republicans, but she doesn't seem like a great option to me.

McSally is already losing to a generic Dem by a significant margin.. 43-50.
https://perma.cc/FQ4L-ZWV2

Kirkpatrick isn't really a "generic" Dem. She recently lost the Senate race, including losing this district, so even ignoring "carpetbagging" there are reasons to believe she's not the best candidate.

[Kamala]

Yeah, I somehow doubt that Ann Kirkpatrick running against Martha McSally is a good idea. I mean, she could win if people are mad enough at Republicans, but she doesn't seem like a great option to me.

McSally is already losing to a generic Dem by a significant margin.. 43-50.
https://perma.cc/FQ4L-ZWV2

Kirkpatrick isn't really a "generic" Dem. She recently lost the Senate race, including losing this district, so even ignoring "carpetbagging" there are reasons to believe she's not the best candidate.

Hmm... who would be the best candidate? Mayor Jonathan Rothschild of Tucson?

[Figueira]

Yeah, I somehow doubt that Ann Kirkpatrick running against Martha McSally is a good idea. I mean, she could win if people are mad enough at Republicans, but she doesn't seem like a great option to me.

McSally is already losing to a generic Dem by a significant margin.. 43-50.
https://perma.cc/FQ4L-ZWV2

Kirkpatrick isn't really a "generic" Dem. She recently lost the Senate race, including losing this district, so even ignoring "carpetbagging" there are reasons to believe she's not the best candidate.

Hmm... who would be the best candidate? Mayor Jonathan Rothschild of Tucson?

Maybe. I don't know much about the situation on the ground there; I just think that Kirkpatrick doesn't strike me as a winning candidate.

[publicunofficial]

Yeah, I somehow doubt that Ann Kirkpatrick running against Martha McSally is a good idea. I mean, she could win if people are mad enough at Republicans, but she doesn't seem like a great option to me.

McSally is already losing to a generic Dem by a significant margin.. 43-50.
https://perma.cc/FQ4L-ZWV2

Kirkpatrick isn't really a "generic" Dem. She recently lost the Senate race, including losing this district, so even ignoring "carpetbagging" there are reasons to believe she's not the best candidate.

Hmm... who would be the best candidate? Mayor Jonathan Rothschild of Tucson?

Randall Friese
Stefanie Mach

[The Other Castro]

CA-10 (Jeff Denham, R): Ex-Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno, and Former astronaut Jose Hernandez are both considering runs.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/15/1661753/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-15?t=1494865338016#update-1494865337000

In other news, it sounds like Kathy Hochul is going to stay on as Lt. Gov, and not challenge Chris Collins.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/lt-gov-hochul-plans-cuomo-running-mate-2018-article-1.3165696

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CA-10 (Jeff Denham, R): Ex-Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno, and Former astronaut Jose Hernandez are both considering runs.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/15/1661753/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-15?t=1494865338016#update-1494865337000

In other news, it sounds like Kathy Hochul is going to stay on as Lt. Gov, and not challenge Chris Collins.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/lt-gov-hochul-plans-cuomo-running-mate-2018-article-1.3165696

Hernandez would be an excellent recruit, too bad Hochul isn't running against Collins though

[Nyvin]

Polls of 61 districts show that Generic Democrats could win the House in 2014.

Link

Generic Democrats now lead GOP incumbents in 37 of 61 districts polled since the beginning of the government shutdown.

Guess how many won....I guess Gary Miller?

That was with a Democrat in the White House.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Politico Pro is reporting that House Majority PAC released internals on 3 Trump GOP reps who are all losing to "unnamed democrats" take it with a grain of salt obviously but:

IA-01: Blum trails 32-47

MI-06: Upton behind 37-41

ME-02: Poliquin down 43-44

(all against unnamed Democrat)

From @AliLapp on twitter

I was watching a video of protesting in Fred Upton's district. Obama won the district in 2012, so I wouldn't doubt it given a favorable national mood.

He won it in 2008.  Romney won the 6th 50%-49%. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP: D 49, R 38.  A month ago they had it 47-41.  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/05/health-care-puts-house-in-play.html

[Devout Centrist]

PPP: D 49, R 38.  A month ago they had it 47-41.  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/05/health-care-puts-house-in-play.html

Not good!

[Virginiá]

That's separate double digit polls, and then the CNN one showing a 9 point lead. Looks like the public is starting to turn against the GOP itself now. Unfortunately, it's still very early. There is a lot of time for things to change in the GOP's favor (or get worse for them as well).

On the other hand, it also seems likely the Trump and the GOP's overall support will stay anemic for this year's elections in November, which would give Democrats a good chance to make some gains in the VA HoD, hold their statewide offices and make a sweep in NJ.

[ajc0918]

The S.S. Trumptanic has hit an iceberg and, unfortunately, vulnerable republicans are in third class and will go down with the ship.

[The_Doctor]

That's separate double digit polls, and then the CNN one showing a 9 point lead. Looks like the public is starting to turn against the GOP itself now. Unfortunately, it's still very early. There is a lot of time for things to change in the GOP's favor (or get worse for them as well).

On the other hand, it also seems likely the Trump and the GOP's overall support will stay anemic for this year's elections in November, which would give Democrats a good chance to make some gains in the VA HoD, hold their statewide offices and make a sweep in NJ.

Most interestingly this is with a good economy (relatively). They shouldn't be at this level of damage this early.

[The Other Castro]

MN-3 (Erik Paulsen, R): Vodka and Gelato Tycoon Dean Phillips (D) is running.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/erik-paulsen-dean-phillips-minnesota

[windjammer]

CA-10 (Jeff Denham, R): Ex-Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno, and Former astronaut Jose Hernandez are both considering runs.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/15/1661753/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-15?t=1494865338016#update-1494865337000

In other news, it sounds like Kathy Hochul is going to stay on as Lt. Gov, and not challenge Chris Collins.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/lt-gov-hochul-plans-cuomo-running-mate-2018-article-1.3165696

Hernandez would be an excellent recruit, too bad Hochul isn't running against Collins though

To be honest she would have been a heavy underdog, Trump +25 quite massive lead.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CA-10 (Jeff Denham, R): Ex-Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno, and Former astronaut Jose Hernandez are both considering runs.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/15/1661753/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-15?t=1494865338016#update-1494865337000

In other news, it sounds like Kathy Hochul is going to stay on as Lt. Gov, and not challenge Chris Collins.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/lt-gov-hochul-plans-cuomo-running-mate-2018-article-1.3165696

Hernandez would be an excellent recruit, too bad Hochul isn't running against Collins though

To be honest she would have been a heavy underdog, Trump +25 quite massive lead.

Collins has been making tons of unforced errors and is being investigated for insider trading IIRC.

[Maxwell]

Hochul also only lost that district to Collins by like 2 points a few years ago.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

PPP: D 49, R 38.  A month ago they had it 47-41.  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/05/health-care-puts-house-in-play.html

Not good!

Bad!

[BuckeyeNut]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

5/17 yougov weekly tracking numbers:

Democrats - 40 (+/-)
Republicans - 33 (-2)
Not Sure - 16 (+/-)
Other - 3 (+/-)

Crosstabs and such: http://tiny.cc/9197ky
question number 101/page 115

[publicunofficial]

NY-19: Hospital executive Sue Sullivan (D) is in.

Sullivan describes herself as a "lifelong resident" of the district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way. 

[socaldem]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way. 

Oddly, one poster on Daily Kos claimed that Portune was "cool" because he is gay. He's not. Gay.

Another questioned his ability to run because of his physical handicaps.

Jeez.

[Kamala]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way. 

An opPortune recruit. Sorry. I'll leave the premises.