2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I'm going to try to amuse you all.

I believe the wall is even further back than PA18 might suggest.

I believe, wholeheartedly, that KY05 could be won, and with less than a million dollars.

The district is actually majority democrat, Hal Rogers power in congress is waning, and they're waiting to put forward his replacement when the presidential cycle comes around next year. There's an opening for this district, CPVI of R32, to flip.

R+32? No way. Not unless Hogers is the next Bob Ney. Ojeda's going to have his work cut out for him running in WV-03 and it's "only" R+23.

I can guarantee you that the several recent winning statewide Democrats in WV have won WV-03. Nick Rahall was still hanging in there several years ago, and it took a long series of events for the GOP to dislodge him. Ojeda has a very good chance to retake the district.

KY-05, meanwhile, has some of the most GOP areas in the entire country- not only has ancestrally Democratic eastern Kentucky shifted far to the right, but KY-05 also contains huge tracts of land that have been GOP since the Civil War. It would be incredibly difficult to see a Democrat win the current configuration of the district, if not impossible. I am certain many of those registered Democrats are literal DINOs by now.

Even with an appeal to the idea of "retire Hal Rogers", I don't think a winning campaign can be made. Not with the Democratic Party of today, nor with the massive GOP advantages in this district.

[136or142]

Katherine Allen is running again in Utah 3rd.

[Bidenworth2020]

Katherine Allen is running again in Utah 3rd.

huh... a lot of special candidates are running.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No, stop no. I would rather dump money on TX 13 than KY 5 lol.

[136or142]

Katherine Allen is running again in Utah 3rd.

huh... a lot of special candidates are running.

She had just announced it when I posted that here.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm going to try to amuse you all.

I believe the wall is even further back than PA18 might suggest.

I believe, wholeheartedly, that KY05 could be won, and with less than a million dollars.

The district is actually majority democrat, Hal Rogers power in congress is waning, and they're waiting to put forward his replacement when the presidential cycle comes around next year. There's an opening for this district, CPVI of R32, to flip.

R+32? No way. Not unless Hogers is the next Bob Ney. Ojeda's going to have his work cut out for him running in WV-03 and it's "only" R+23.

I can guarantee you that the several recent winning statewide Democrats in WV have won WV-03. Nick Rahall was still hanging in there several years ago, and it took a long series of events for the GOP to dislodge him. Ojeda has a very good chance to retake the district.

KY-05, meanwhile, has some of the most GOP areas in the entire country- not only has ancestrally Democratic eastern Kentucky shifted far to the right, but KY-05 also contains huge tracts of land that have been GOP since the Civil War. It would be incredibly difficult to see a Democrat win the current configuration of the district, if not impossible. I am certain many of those registered Democrats are literal DINOs by now.

Even with an appeal to the idea of "retire Hal Rogers", I don't think a winning campaign can be made. Not with the Democratic Party of today, nor with the massive GOP advantages in this district.

You misunderstand me. I’m saying WV-03 is a heavy but doable lift — I am well aware Perdue won it in ‘16 and that Manchin won it in ‘12 — and that KY-05 is not comparable. I agree with you.

[Landslide Lyndon]

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who is running in NM-2 to prompt a Leans R rating?

Yeah, that one seems like a missed opportunity

[Jeppe]

Who is running in NM-2 to prompt a Leans R rating?

Xochitl Torres Small has endorsements from the New Mexico Democratic Party, DCCC, and Emily’s List and she’s the frontrunner. However, Madeline Hildebrandt is still in the running too.

[Holmes]

Why would they use the old PA map?

[Jeppe]

Is there anything particularly notable about her aside from the fact she's married to a state legislator and is currently in law school?

She’s not in law school anymore, she’s a practicing attorney at a law firm.

[Gass3268]

Why would they use the old PA map?

They might be waiting until its 100% offical.

[Oryxslayer]

Why would they use the old PA map?

They might be waiting until its 100% offical.

Nah, its just a effort for Cook to change their maps after they have put them into effect. Last cycle, they used the old Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia maps all the way through November.

[Gass3268]

Why would they use the old PA map?

They might be waiting until its 100% offical.

Nah, its just a effort for Cook to change their maps after they have put them into effect. Last cycle, they used the old Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia maps all the way through November.

Ugh, that's annoying.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I'm going to try to amuse you all.

I believe the wall is even further back than PA18 might suggest.

I believe, wholeheartedly, that KY05 could be won, and with less than a million dollars.

The district is actually majority democrat, Hal Rogers power in congress is waning, and they're waiting to put forward his replacement when the presidential cycle comes around next year. There's an opening for this district, CPVI of R32, to flip.

R+32? No way. Not unless Hogers is the next Bob Ney. Ojeda's going to have his work cut out for him running in WV-03 and it's "only" R+23.

I can guarantee you that the several recent winning statewide Democrats in WV have won WV-03. Nick Rahall was still hanging in there several years ago, and it took a long series of events for the GOP to dislodge him. Ojeda has a very good chance to retake the district.

KY-05, meanwhile, has some of the most GOP areas in the entire country- not only has ancestrally Democratic eastern Kentucky shifted far to the right, but KY-05 also contains huge tracts of land that have been GOP since the Civil War. It would be incredibly difficult to see a Democrat win the current configuration of the district, if not impossible. I am certain many of those registered Democrats are literal DINOs by now.

Even with an appeal to the idea of "retire Hal Rogers", I don't think a winning campaign can be made. Not with the Democratic Party of today, nor with the massive GOP advantages in this district.

You misunderstand me. I’m saying WV-03 is a heavy but doable lift — I am well aware Perdue won it in ‘16 and that Manchin won it in ‘12 — and that KY-05 is not comparable. I agree with you.

Whoops, I misread that. I take it "Ojeda's going to have his work cut out for him" refers to these wins.

[136or142]

Is there anything particularly notable about her aside from the fact she's married to a state legislator and is currently in law school?

She’s not in law school anymore, she’s a practicing attorney at a law firm.

When is she going to stop practicing and become a real attorney?    (OK, that was stupid, sorry, but, then, then the English Language is frequently stupid.)

[136or142]

On a serious note, and in response to the TJ Cox situation and his qualities as a candidate, I mention this because I don't think the retired Canadian political broadcaster receives any where near enough credit for his, in my opinion, frequently very astute observations.

Sadly he seems to be best known for his beginning his television show with the phrase (which he pronounced as) "Welcome to the broaaadcast."

He said that he frequently noticed that when political circumstances changed that candidates (and politicians) who had previously been dismissed by the public, that the public suddenly 'notices' in those candidates positives qualities that they had not previously noticed, and suddenly 'realizes' that the reasons they had previously dismissed the candidate weren't actually that big a deal.

So, given this political environment it's possible that the people of the 21st District of California might say to themselves "When Donald Trump ran for President and it came out that he had been sued hundreds of times, it was explained 'business people get sued all the time.' Yet,  T.J Cox has only been sued once due to his business operations, he must be a wonderful person then.'

[GeorgiaModerate]

DCCC announces record fundraising for February.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

DCCC announces record fundraising for February.

What is the RCC fundraising tho

[Ebsy]

DCCC announces record fundraising for February.

What is the RCC fundraising tho

The NRCC has not announced their haul yet.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

DCCC announces record fundraising for February.

What is the RCC fundraising tho

The NRCC has not announced their haul yet.

I see. I feel like they have probably outraised the DCCC this month, but we'll see.

[KingSweden]

Mimi Walters is gonna get blown the f-ck out and it's gonna be hilarious.

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Of
TBF what she’s saying isn’t wrong on its face, in that she substantially outran the top of the ticket.

[King Lear]

Mimi Walters is gonna get blown the f-ck out and it's gonna be hilarious.

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Of
TBF what she’s saying isn’t wrong on its face, in that she substantially outran the top of the ticket.

As someone who lives in Mimi Walters district, my gut tells me she’s narrowly favored to win reelection right now. However, if Democrats are winning the House, then Mimi Walters will definitely be losing reelection, theirs even a Chance her district will be the one that flips the House ie. “the tipping-point district”.