2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ashford is back.

I'm not impressed with Ashford.  His narrow loss in 2016 would have been impressive had Hillary lost NE-02 by 10+ points (i.e. Baron Hill in 2004 in IN-09), but Hillary only lost the district by a point.  Any non-scandal tarred incumbent should have been able run a two points ahead of their Presidential nominee.

He should have squeeked by, but in his defense, he had one good opponent.

[PAK Man]

It could have been worse for Ashford. Remember he didn't initially take his fundraising seriously but then, when he realized how much trouble he was in, buckled down and actually improved?

[publicunofficial]

Ann Kirkpatrick has officially opened an exploratory committee for AZ-02.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult, conducted June 15-19:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27853

Dems 43%
GOP 37%

Yougov, conducted June 18-20:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/yougov-economist-27851

Dems 38%
GOP 35%

NBC/WSJ, conducted June 17-20:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/amid-controversy-trump-s-approval-remains-low-steady-n775736

Dems 50%
GOP 42%

(Technically, the NBC poll might not be strictly a "generic ballot" poll, since it asks who you want to see control Congress, rather than who you will vote for.)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Man only 6 months in an dems lead by 8 already

[Hindsight was 2020]

Per Alex Burns Phoniex mayor Greg Staton is considering running aganist Flake https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/06/23/us/politics/health-care-bill-senate.html?_r=0&referer=https://t.co/btcK86kXDL?amp=1

[Holmes]

Sinema might be waiting for an open seat in 2022.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sinema might be waiting for an open seat in 2022.

Sinema would lose badly, Stanton's our best candidate here.

[Holmes]

Sinema might be waiting for an open seat in 2022.

Sinema would lose badly, Stanton's our best candidate here.

I don't think Sinema would lose badly, but either way she's not running. Gallego would be a good candidate too.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sinema might be waiting for an open seat in 2022.

Sinema would lose badly, Stanton's our best candidate here.

I don't think Sinema would lose badly, but either way she's not running. Gallego would be a good candidate too.

Gallego can't win statewide in AZ, at least not yet.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

People, try to convince Mark Kelly to run. In 2018 he would be tossup to tilt R vs flake, and tossup to tilt D vs Ward. And in 2022 if McCain leaves, then it will be anywhere from tossup to tilt D.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not shocking but Ossoff is probably going to try again in 2018 https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweigel/status/879417956639363072

[Santander]

Not shocking but Ossoff is probably going to try again in 2018 https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweigel/status/879417956639363072

What's the plan? Keep running until the voters no longer think he's too young?

[Cactus Jack]

Not shocking but Ossoff is probably going to try again in 2018 https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweigel/status/879417956639363072

Please God no. The guy is flakier than Jeff Flake.

[Webnicz]

Sinema might be waiting for an open seat in 2022.

Calling it right now
AZ senate race of 2022 will be Sinema v McSally
This should be why dems should take care of mcsally in '18, if she makes it to 2022, she will be the front runner for the sole purpose of her fundraising skills
Sinema is always playing the "I might run for senate" game to get more money, she did the same thing in '16 and will do the same this time around.

and to clarify - no I do not think McCain will run for re-election. Or he runs and is defeated in the primary, he has serious problems from within his party. A joke like kelli ward put 40% on him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NY-22: State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi to challenge Rep. Claudia Tenney: http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/anthony_brindisi_to_challenge_claudia_tenney_for_congress_in_upstate_ny.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

NY-22: State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi to challenge Rep. Claudia Tenney: http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/anthony_brindisi_to_challenge_claudia_tenney_for_congress_in_upstate_ny.html

Boom son

[progressive85]

NY-22: State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi to challenge Rep. Claudia Tenney: http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/anthony_brindisi_to_challenge_claudia_tenney_for_congress_in_upstate_ny.html

Boom son

Now thats a key race

[Gass3268]

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 6/21-6/25:

Democrats 48%
Republicans 38%

Source

[Hindsight was 2020]

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 6/21-6/25:

Democrats 48%
Republicans 38%

Source

An there we go

[Brittain33]

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 6/21-6/25:

Democrats 48%
Republicans 38%

Source

An there we go

Exciting until you remember at least 6% of those 14% undecideds are Republicans who "come home" after Halloween.

[RogueBeaver]

CO-6: Tillemann in.

[Brittain33]

CO-6: Tillemann in.

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If you do the math here, you see he's chosen a last name other than the default for obvious reasons.

[heatcharger]

Fox News (6/25-6/27):

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47% Democratic Candidate
41% Republican Candidate

[Mr. Morden]

Yougov/Economist, conducted June 25-27:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/yougov-economist-27873

Dems 41%
GOP 35%