2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Virginiá]

Democratic performance in the special elections actually seems to match up decently with the RCP average of +8pt on the generic ballot.

It could be the case that because of a gap in enthusiasm and the huge approval/disapproval gap among college educated whites that Democrats overperform their numbers next year, seeing as they are a higher turnout group that the GOP has relied a lot on in the past.

We'll see.

[RogueBeaver]

MA-7: Cambridge councilor Nadeem Mazen is primarying Capuano.

[SATW]

Anyone know if any Democrat has floated a potential run or an announced run against Carlos Curbelo in FL-26? I've been curious about that race.

He's one of my favorites in congress, hoping he wins big in 2018.

[Brittain33]

MA-7: Cambridge councilor Nadeem Mazen is primarying Capuano.

Hahaha good luck w that.

[McGovernForPrez]

MA-7: Cambridge councilor Nadeem Mazen is primarying Capuano.

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Capuano is gonna send this guy into another dimension.

[Virginiá]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2471

Democrats 51 - 41 over Republicans in generic ballot.

Currently at least 64% among 18 - 34 year olds. Could be another 2008-level blowout among this group, which imo, long-term, is bad news bears for Republicans. Every election since 2004 they are setting new records for losing the youth vote by landslide margins. No party has ever lost that group this many times in a row, let alone by such huge margins.

[Virginiá]

Damn you morden. My incessant need to type long-winded posts slowed me down too much!

[Mr. Morden]

Damn you morden. My incessant need to type long-winded posts slowed me down too much!

I deleted my post in order to give you the glory. 

[Donerail]

Anyone know if any Democrat has floated a potential run or an announced run against Carlos Curbelo in FL-26? I've been curious about that race.

He's one of my favorites in congress, hoping he wins big in 2018.

most of the Dem oxygen in the area has been sucked up by FL-27, which is both easier for a Dem to win and an open seat. haven't heard anything about Curbelo.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IL-14: Montgomery Village President [is that really a title?] Matt Brolley to seek D nomination against GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren.  http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/aurora-beacon-news/news/ct-abn-montgomery-mayor-congress-st-0630-20170629-story.html

[JMT]

Anyone know if any Democrat has floated a potential run or an announced run against Carlos Curbelo in FL-26? I've been curious about that race.

He's one of my favorites in congress, hoping he wins big in 2018.

most of the Dem oxygen in the area has been sucked up by FL-27, which is both easier for a Dem to win and an open seat. haven't heard anything about Curbelo.

Yeah, Dems see a better opportunity in FL-27. That may end up saving Curbelo. I thought Annette Taddeo would maybe give FL-26 another shot (she would have been a much better candidate than Joe Garcia), but she recently announced she's running for state senate in an upcoming special election. If she wins that, maybe she'd go for Congress again.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Anyone know if any Democrat has floated a potential run or an announced run against Carlos Curbelo in FL-26? I've been curious about that race.

He's one of my favorites in congress, hoping he wins big in 2018.

most of the Dem oxygen in the area has been sucked up by FL-27, which is both easier for a Dem to win and an open seat. haven't heard anything about Curbelo.

So I did some research and being a local could you tell me if Kionne McGhee or Robert Asencio would be good canidates

[GeorgiaModerate]

FL-7: State Rep. Mike Miller running for R nomination against Rep. Stephanie Murphy.  http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-mike-miller-congress-20170629-story.html

[Gass3268]

IL-14: Montgomery Village President [is that really a title?] Matt Brolley to seek D nomination against GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren.  http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/aurora-beacon-news/news/ct-abn-montgomery-mayor-congress-st-0630-20170629-story.html

Yeah, villages in the Midwest have Village Presidents and a Village Board.

[Brittain33]

Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA and Senate Majority PAC (June 23-27)
2018 Senate battleground states only
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/30/15900564/health-bill-politics-midterms

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 35%

Numbers are after hearing criticism of the Republican Health Care plan. Generic ballot before being exposed to this info is 48%-38% in favor of Dems.

[heatcharger]

Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA and Senate Majority PAC (June 23-27)
2018 Senate battleground states only
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/30/15900564/health-bill-politics-midterms

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 35%

Numbers are after hearing criticism of the Republican Health Care plan. Generic ballot before being exposed to this info is 48%-38% in favor of Dems.

Those are the real numbers. The bill has not actually passed yet, and voters do not actually think long-term.

[JGibson]

#IL12: Brendan Kelly to run against Bost?
Kevin McDermott at STLToday.com:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

#IL13: Gill, Ammons among the challengers to Davis; Manar likely not running.
Kevin McDermott at STLToday.com:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Brendan Kelly would be a good recruit

[Donerail]

Anyone know if any Democrat has floated a potential run or an announced run against Carlos Curbelo in FL-26? I've been curious about that race.

He's one of my favorites in congress, hoping he wins big in 2018.

most of the Dem oxygen in the area has been sucked up by FL-27, which is both easier for a Dem to win and an open seat. haven't heard anything about Curbelo.

So I did some research and being a local could you tell me if Kionne McGhee or Robert Asencio would be good canidates

McGhee's a good guy but I generally question the ability of non-Hispanic candidates to be competitive in a 70% Hispanic district. Don't know that much about Asencio, who's new to the legislature this year. He'd certainly be competitive, but he only has one race and one session under his belt so far.

[Coraxion]

Interesting. I still hope it's Kirkpatrick if Sinema doesn't change her mind, though.

[Cactus Jack]

Stanton would be a much stronger candidate than Synema or Kirkpatrick IMO.

Frankly agreed. I'm not convinced Sinema is electable statewide just yet, and I'd rather like to keep her as my Representative besides.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult, conducted June 29-30:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/politico-morning-consult-27892

Dems 43%
GOP 39%

[Coraxion]

Stanton would be a much stronger candidate than Synema or Kirkpatrick IMO.

Frankly agreed. I'm not convinced Sinema is electable statewide just yet, and I'd rather like to keep her as my Representative besides.

Why not? She's a Blue Dog moderate who could reassure suburbanite voters in Maricopa County who are skeptical of Democrats when the Republican isn't Trump.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stanton would be a much stronger candidate than Synema or Kirkpatrick IMO.

Frankly agreed. I'm not convinced Sinema is electable statewide just yet, and I'd rather like to keep her as my Representative besides.

Why not? She's a Blue Dog moderate who could reassure suburbanite voters in Maricopa County who are skeptical of Democrats when the Republican isn't Trump.

She has a ton of baggage

[publicunofficial]

Stanton would be a much stronger candidate than Synema or Kirkpatrick IMO.

Frankly agreed. I'm not convinced Sinema is electable statewide just yet, and I'd rather like to keep her as my Representative besides.

Why not? She's a Blue Dog moderate who could reassure suburbanite voters in Maricopa County who are skeptical of Democrats when the Republican isn't Trump.

She has a ton of baggage

Every candidate either has baggage or is an absolute non-entity, that's what I say.