2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Any news on if Adam Gray is considering a run aganist Denham?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Las Vegas councilman Stavros Anthony (R) to challenge D freshman Ruben Kihuen in NV-04: https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/las-vegas-councilman-to-file-for-congress

[The Other Castro]

SD-AL: Tim Bjorkman (D), retired circuit court judge, will announce a run on Thursday for the open seat.

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2017/07/10/former-circuit-court-judge-run-u-s-house/464186001/

[Kamala]

SD-AL: Tim Bjorkman (D), retired circuit court judge, will announce a run on Thursday for the open seat.

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2017/07/10/former-circuit-court-judge-run-u-s-house/464186001/

Decent choice - as long as his "focus on local issues" campaign can basically seperate itself from the national party.

[Holmes]

It'd be fun if there were a member of Congress named Bjorkman.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

It's definitely believable at this stage when the NRSC smear campaign hasn't started yet. It's worth noting that this firm was pretty accurate in 2012, even if they are an internal. I'd guess it depends on what you want to believe about the national environment

Most Democratic internals were (obviously) pretty accurate in 2012, just like most Republican internals were in 2016. Tells us little about 2018.

Do we even know which candidates they polled? Generic "Republican candidate" or maybe some random state legislators who aren't going to run anyway? This entire poll is quite suspect, like most multi-state surveys are in general.

"Generic [party]" tends to over-perform compared to specific candidates.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Via quinnipiac, Trump's approval in upstate NY has fallen to 38%. Could play a big role on if Michael Hein and/or Svante Myrick join races

[GeorgiaModerate]

In-depth article on GA-7 that discusses some of the candidates running for the D nomination next year: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrats-take-aim-gwinnett-based-7th-congressional-district/Zbzm9RhE0kpLkFtTE4qTbN/

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Via quinnipiac, Trump's approval in upstate NY has fallen to 38%. Could play a big role on if Michael Hein and/or Svante Myrick join races

Haven't upstate NY and the Upper Midwest tracked eerily close together in the past? If this keeps up that is bad news in MI, MN and WI.

[OneJ]

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Let them waste all that money so they can get Kirked too.

[heatcharger]

PPP poll:

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Democrat 50%
Republican 40%

[Ebsy]

[Young Conservative]

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Let them waste all that money so they can get Kirked too.

your reference to Kirk doesn't make sense.

[Holmes]

CA-50's one of the toughest R held SoCal districts to crack.

[OneJ]

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Let them waste all that money so they can get Kirked too.

your reference to Kirk doesn't make sense.

I wasn't being that serious. I just wanted to reference his loss.

Either way, I have a hard time seeing how the GOP can flip this seat back atm.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ahead-of-midterms-voters-prefer-democrats-even-as-republicans-appear-more-motivated-to-vote/2017/07/19/470441d6-6c01-11e7-96ab-5f38140b38cc_story.html

D 52%
R 38%

[Brittain33]

Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ahead-of-midterms-voters-prefer-democrats-even-as-republicans-appear-more-motivated-to-vote/2017/07/19/470441d6-6c01-11e7-96ab-5f38140b38cc_story.html

D 52%
R 38%

That is a particularly rich and diverse poll. Interestingly, these numbers are for preference for party control, rather than voting intention, and I'm curious how much one can stand in for the other.

[Wiz in Wis]

Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ahead-of-midterms-voters-prefer-democrats-even-as-republicans-appear-more-motivated-to-vote/2017/07/19/470441d6-6c01-11e7-96ab-5f38140b38cc_story.html

D 52%
R 38%

That is a particularly rich and diverse poll. Interestingly, these numbers are for preference for party control, rather than voting intention, and I'm curious how much one can stand in for the other.

They probably mirror one another closely, like favorability and job approval.

[Virginiá]

Looks like the Republican Party's brand is deteriorating rather rapidly. Their RCP average is already down to -9 points. Even after Bush's reelection, it took Democrats about a year before their generic poll lead reached double digits.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CA-50's one of the toughest R held SoCal districts to crack.

It won't fall unless 2018 proves to be a blue tsunami, and Hunter gets indicted and convicted.

[Gass3268]

Ann Kirkpatrick has filed with the FEC to run against McSalley in AZ-02

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[Holmes]

Dems get a good recruit against Collins in Erin Cole. His investment scandals and Trumlcare support probably make him a weak incumbent, though Colemwould be working against the district's Republicsn lean.

http://buffalonews.com/2017/07/19/first-dem-challenge-collins-comes-armed-loaded-resume/

[Virginiá]

Paging Technocratic Timmy:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/7/24/1683339/-Morning-Digest-How-California-s-top-two-primary-could-wind-up-saving-a-vulnerable-Republican

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I really wish they would just get rid of the top-two stuff already. Maybe even Republicans would be on board with that, given that it looks poised to lock them out of countless races in the future if their state party continues its implosion. Say what you will about whatever benefits top-two brings, but a party should not be locked out of a general election just because swarms of their candidates diluted the vote so much that allowed two opposition members to go forward against each other.

[smoltchanov]

Paging Technocratic Timmy:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/7/24/1683339/-Morning-Digest-How-California-s-top-two-primary-could-wind-up-saving-a-vulnerable-Republican

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I really wish they would just get rid of the top-two stuff already. Maybe even Republicans would be on board with that, given that it looks poised to lock them out of countless races in the future if their state party continues its implosion. Say what you will about whatever benefits top-two brings, but a party should not be locked out of a general election just because swarms of their candidates diluted the vote so much that allowed two opposition members to go forward against each other.

Why not? Idiotism must be punished. And failure to guarantee as much candidates as needed for having best chances to win is an idiotism.

[Virginiá]

Why not? Idiotism must be punished. And failure to guarantee as much candidates as needed for having best chances to win is an idiotism.

I pretty much stated my main opposition to this already. I'm not a big fan of the way we currently elect politicians, but I want more far-reaching reforms and not things like this. I'm not sure I like the idea of statewide California elections frequently becoming DvD matchups (even if for partisan reasons it is appealing), nor do I like the idea of competitive House races going to Republicans because Democrats couldn't help but pile into the race en masse and split the vote in obscene ways.