2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[smoltchanov]

^ Really good candidate. But district is still difficult. For any Democrat...

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's totally a scenario where the AHCA dies in the Senate and completely fades from public memory by the time November 2018 rolls around. Not ready to start celebrating yet.

That wouldn't stop "Congressman X voted to take away your health care" ads.

[Hindsight was 2020]

David Jolly told Poltico he is seeing serious early warning signs for 2018 http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/06/obamacare-repeal-house-2018-238064

[GlobeSoc]

David Jolly told Poltico he is seeing serious early warning signs for 2018 http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/06/obamacare-repeal-house-2018-238064

You know what, until I see dems with consistent double digit leads in Oklahoma's governors race in October 2018, I'm not believing it.

[swf541]

There's totally a scenario where the AHCA dies in the Senate and completely fades from public memory by the time November 2018 rolls around. Not ready to start celebrating yet.

That wouldn't stop "Congressman X voted to take away your health care" ads.

[Pericles]

Hillarycare never went to a vote but still cost Bill Clinton both houses of Congress in 1994.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/blvmt31w4l/econTabReport.pdf

Yougov:
Democrats - 38
Republicans - 35
Not Sure - 17
Other - 3

[henster]

Ds should consider mounting a serious challenge against Chris Collins, I remember Lee Terry made that stupid comment about his paycheck during the shutdown in 2013 and it cost him.

[henster]

Ds should consider mounting a serious challenge against Chris Collins, I remember Lee Terry made that stupid comment about his paycheck during the shutdown in 2013 and it cost him.

Looks like Kathy Hochul is being recruited for a rematch against Collins hopefully she follows through with it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/06/us/politics/health-care-vote.html

[The Other Castro]

Former Cuomo aide Gareth Rhodes will challenge John Faso (NY-19).

http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2017/05/07/former-cuomo-aide-to-challenge-faso-111866

Laura Moser, founder of Daily Action, is running in TX-7 against John Culberson.

https://moserforcongress.com

[publicunofficial]

Former Cuomo aide Gareth Rhodes will challenge John Faso (NY-19).

http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2017/05/07/former-cuomo-aide-to-challenge-faso-111866

"Rhodes will move back to his native home of upstate New York"

Didn't we go through this with the last two candidates for this seat?

[publicunofficial]

MN-03: Wealthy businessman Dean Phillips (D) is officially IN against Eric Paulsen.

NY-24: The DCCC is reportedly very close to recruiting Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner. Miner had previously declined to run in 2016.

[JerryArkansas]

Former Cuomo aide Gareth Rhodes will challenge John Faso (NY-19).

http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2017/05/07/former-cuomo-aide-to-challenge-faso-111866

"Rhodes will move back to his native home of upstate New York"

Didn't we go through this with the last two candidates for this seat?

Well neither of them ever lived in the district.  He has at least spent some of his life there.

[KingSweden]

MN-03: Wealthy businessman Dean Phillips (D) is officially IN against Eric Paulsen.

NY-24: The DCCC is reportedly very close to recruiting Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Milner. Milner had previously declined to run in 2016.

Miner would be a big get. The suburbs of course are where Katko has had his margins but she'd be the top recruit bar none

[publicunofficial]

NE-02: Former Rep. Brad Ashford and his wife Ann Ashford will announce which one of them will run for Congress on Wednesday after Tuesday's Omaha Mayor election.

[SWE]

NY-27: Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul reportedly being approached to challenge Chris Collins

[The Other Castro]

DCCC is trying to recruit Jim Gray (who may or may not be interested) for a run in KY-6 against Andy Barr.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/861640729172611075

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DCCC is trying to recruit Jim Gray (who may or may not be interested) for a run in KY-6 against Andy Barr.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/861640729172611075

He'd be a huge get, one who'd instantly make this a tossup (tilt R at worst).

[Mike Thick]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

[Kamala]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

Also, this district voted for Clinton by 22 points over Trump - considering his entire political career has been as a barnacle on the Trump train (mixed metaphor, I know), I doubt he's going to give Brownley a run.

[Mike Thick]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

Also, this district voted for Clinton by 22 points over Trump - considering his entire political career has been as a barnacle on the Trump train (mixed metaphor, I know), I doubt he's going to give Brownley a run.

When most Americans think "Antonio Sabato Jr," their minds go to his filmography rather than his more outlandish statements. That's probably the only thing that can save him. :/

Brownley won her 2014 race in large part by successfully defining her opponent as a Tea Partying radical, and he wasn't half the target that Sabato is. If she can do the same this time (and early reports make it seem like his campaign strategy will make this easy for her) she should be fine.

[Maxwell]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

Also, this district voted for Clinton by 22 points over Trump - considering his entire political career has been as a barnacle on the Trump train (mixed metaphor, I know), I doubt he's going to give Brownley a run.

When most Americans think "Antonio Sabato Jr," their minds go to his filmography rather than his more outlandish statements. That's probably the only thing that can save him. :/

Brownley won her 2014 race in large part by successfully defining her opponent as a Tea Partying radical, and he wasn't half the target that Sabato is. If she can do the same this time (and early reports make it seem like his campaign strategy will make this easy for her) she should be fine.

most americans don't think about "Antonio Sabato Jr". He's not even the most prominent flop celebrity to back Trump - Scott Baeo is.

[Mike Thick]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

Also, this district voted for Clinton by 22 points over Trump - considering his entire political career has been as a barnacle on the Trump train (mixed metaphor, I know), I doubt he's going to give Brownley a run.

When most Americans think "Antonio Sabato Jr," their minds go to his filmography rather than his more outlandish statements. That's probably the only thing that can save him. :/

Brownley won her 2014 race in large part by successfully defining her opponent as a Tea Partying radical, and he wasn't half the target that Sabato is. If she can do the same this time (and early reports make it seem like his campaign strategy will make this easy for her) she should be fine.

most americans don't think about "Antonio Sabato Jr". He's not even the most prominent flop celebrity to back Trump - Scott Baeo is.

This is true, but the point is that most of the name recognition that he has is separate from the crazy stuff he's said.

[OneJ]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

This won't be even a serious contest. Brownley won by a 20 point margin last year while Hillary garnered a 22 point win here. The climate right now is cold for Republicans as well to run in districts like CA-26 in the era of Trump as well.

News at 11.

[Mike Thick]

Antonio Sabato Jr. is challenging my Congresswoman, Julia Brownley.

Since the bench here is so thin, and he has a famous name/decent personal wealth, I think he may actually be one of the strongest possible recruits. His friendliness with the Trump White House has the potential to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how he plays his hand, but this is going to be a fun race to watch.

EDIT: He's said that Obama is a Muslim, and seems to be fairly hardline on immigration -- probably not great things in this particular district

This won't be even a serious contest. Brownley won by a 20 point margin last year while Hillary garnered a 22 point win here. The climate right now is cold for Republicans as well to run in districts like CA-26 in the era of Trump as well.

News at 11.

Last cycle was basically the perfect storm for Republicans to crash in this district: a Republican Presidential nominee who was anathema to both Latinos and suburban whites, no Senate candidate, and an unfunded nobody as the Republican Congressional candidate. Two years earlier, Brownley only narrowly defeated her Republican opponent.

I think that a Republican could win in the ideal climate. However, I don't think 2018 is likely to be that climate, Brownley is a near-perfect fit for the district, and the more I read about Sabato, the less I think he's even close to being that Republican.

However, it should still be interesting, if only for the fact that Sabato is an... interesting... guy