2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[publicunofficial]

State Rep. Carol Ammons has formed an exploratory comittee for a run in IL-13. Ammons' seat is in the Champaign-Urbana area, and received an endorsement and funding from Bernie Sanders in her last election.

Unelectable, we need Andy Manar

The fact that she's even considering probably means Manar isn't interested. I say give her a shot.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm from Texas 32nd. I was born and raised here, and have lived my entire life here. And I am telling everyone that Colin Allred doesn't have a chance on God's green earth to win the district, unless it's territory was seriously redrawn. The only semi-feasible way for any democrat to even possibly consider having a fighting chance to represent the district in congress is for someone like Mike Rawlings to attempt to ride a coattail backlash against Trump in 2020. The only reason the district slightly bent for Clinton was because of the pure disgust for Trump. I can guarantee you that this is no lasting effect, should the composition of the district stay intact as is. For the Presidential result, the dems gained 7 points, and the reps lost 11 in the district. Meaning a substantial loss went to third parties, and the rest that went to the dems on the the presidential level were moderate center right wing suburban women. Not a permanent effect. Heck, there was not much of an effect at all on the district even in 2016, except on the presidential level.

I will give an example, there are countless more places in the district that experienced this sort of an effect:

My precinct, no.2018 in the district went:

40% Clinton, 56% Trump. 

But the straight party voters which represent a little over half the voters in my precinct went

28% Democrat, 71% Republican.

The full votes down ballot were also ruby red such as:

Railroad Commissioner: 26% Democrat, 65% Republican

Supreme Court Place 3: 28% Democrat, 67% Republican

Supreme Court Place 5: 31% Democrat, 65% Republican

State Rep: 25% Democrat, 72% Republican

Sheriff: 35% Democrat, 62% Republican

And several other down-ticket positions that went republican by similar margins. The district has not gone blue, it was an optical illusion. Democrats, we need to focus our efforts elsewhere. Texas 32nd is not feasible to win without significant redrawing, especially on a local level. Look elsewhere to pick up seats, sadly, this is not one of them.

[publicunofficial]

This kinda fits here:

Collin Peterson is going for another term.

[publicunofficial]

MI-11: Dems have recruited Haley Stevens. Stevens, only 33, was chief of staff to President Obama’s Auto Task Force in 2009 when it was overseeing the financial rescue of Chrysler and General Motors.

MI-11 is a 50-45 Trump district. Rep. Dave Trott beat his last challenger 53-40.

[henster]

Recruitment for the Senate Ds has been pretty disappointing, still no candidates in the two states(NV,AZ) they must win to even break even in the Senate. 

[publicunofficial]

Recruitment for the Senate Ds has been pretty disappointing, still no candidates in the two states(NV,AZ) they must win to even break even in the Senate. 

As opposed to the Republicans who have so far recruited such heavy hitters as Josh Mandel and...uh....Curt Schilling?

[Gass3268]

CNN/ORC:

50% Democrats
41% Republicans




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mod edit (6/5/2017): Here is the 538 Generic Ballot polls thread:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/


mod edit (7/7/2017): CFP midterm loss regression analysis:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/generic-ballot-model-gives-democrats-early-advantage-in-battle-for-control-of-house/

[Hindsight was 2020]

Telling it now house will flip

[Crumpets]

IIRC, Dems dominated in the generic congressional poll in late 2013, only to be immediately overtaken by the Republicans because of the ACA rollout.

Americans are fickle.

[Hindsight was 2020]

IIRC, Dems dominated in the generic congressional poll in late 2013, only to be immediately overtaken by the Republicans because of the ACA rollout, never to retake the lead.

Americans are fickle.

Apples to oranges Obama was president but a (R) is now

[Virginiá]

It's a good number, but I still think we need to see consistent double digits for Democrats from a whole range of different polls for a long time to have a real shot at a big wave. Take the 2006 question results:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html

Democrats dominated for over a year prior to the election, mostly getting double digits, only to underperform by election day. If Democrats averaged only 8 - 9 points on this question by Nov 2018 and underperformed, that would be disappointing, all things considered. I don't think it is guaranteed that Democrats underperform, but it has happened in a number of elections.

However, one thing not to be glossed over here is just how soon Republicans are tanking in this kind of poll. It does seem eerily reminiscent of 2006 (scroll down on link above to 2005)

Anywho, we'll see.

[BuckeyeNut]

Telling it now house will flip

Dems still need credible challengers in the Clinton-Republican seats and the marginal Trump seats, though. Until Democrats start landing recruits like Lynwood Lewis or Rudy Salas or Pete Festersen, I'll hold off on the House flipping.

And these candidates have what in common?

[Vosem]

Recruitment for the Senate Ds has been pretty disappointing, still no candidates in the two states(NV,AZ) they must win to even break even in the Senate. 

Kyrsten Sinema in AZ has clearly been fundraising with an eye towards a Senate run, and its clear other Democrats who may be interested are waiting for her decision. Nevada Democratic leadership seem to want Kate Marshall in NV, though that race is still kind of unclear.

Keep in mind that lots of successful recent swing-state Senate campaigns (like Cory Gardner's in 2014, or Angus King's in 2012) only kicked off the year of the election, rather than the year before. There's still plenty of time.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I wouldn't expect many to declare this early for 2018. Unless, Ossoff does win the runoff in June then I expect candidates to flood the races. Even more so if the media cycle is bad for Trump and the Republicans.

[JerryArkansas]

Recruitment for the Senate Ds has been pretty disappointing, still no candidates in the two states(NV,AZ) they must win to even break even in the Senate. 

This is a defence cycle for Dems.  Nothing sad about having no candidates yet in these two states.  Much better than Republicans who have no heavy hitters in the 6 or so Trump Dem states.

[windjammer]

Recruitment for the Senate Ds has been pretty disappointing, still no candidates in the two states(NV,AZ) they must win to even break even in the Senate. 

I think Sinema is going to run.
Regarding NV, I don't know.

[Figueira]

Recruitment for the Senate Ds has been pretty disappointing, still no candidates in the two states(NV,AZ) they must win to even break even in the Senate. 

This is a defence cycle for Dems.  Nothing sad about having no candidates yet in these two states.  Much better than Republicans who have no heavy hitters in the 6 or so Trump Dem states.

Candidates in NV and AZ are crucial to preventing the Republicans from making a lot of Senate gains. That said, I'm not too worried since pretty much anyone will work in NV, and Sinema seems likely to run in AZ.

[Brittain33]

I've never understood enthusiasm for a candidate who is openly bisexual and atheist running statewide in Arizona. Maybe it's my internalized homophobia, but that seemed like a stretch.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Would Jonathan Rothschild be a good canidate aganist McSally https://mobile.twitter.com/ericawerner/status/860138281064943617

[Pericles]

These are good results. Early but looks good so far. I think the Democrats will win the House in 2018.

[publicunofficial]

FL-18: Attorney Pam Keith (D), who came in 3rd in in last years FL-Sen primary, is weighing a bid against Brian Mast

Would Jonathan Rothschild be a good canidate aganist McSally https://mobile.twitter.com/ericawerner/status/860138281064943617

Personally, I like Rep. Randall Friese, who's been talked about as a statewide candidate recently. Holds a swingy Tucson based seat, and before he was a politician he was a trauma surgeon who treated Giffords and other victims of the Tucson shooting.

[The Other Castro]

TX-23 (Will Hurd, R): EMILY's List is looking at some potential non-Gallego recruits.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/05/05/congressman-will-hurd-texas-republican-profile-215102

[publicunofficial]

There's totally a scenario where the AHCA dies in the Senate and completely fades from public memory by the time November 2018 rolls around. Not ready to start celebrating yet.

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, being a pro-choice is not neccessarily a big plus in this district...

[publicunofficial]

WA-05: Washington State University-Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown is resigning from her post, and says she's weighing a bid against Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Brown was previously a state legislator for 20 years, serving as Senate Majority Leader from '05 to '13.

Brown played a key role in bringing the WSU medical school to Spokane, which has been great for the city. Spokane City Council President Ben Stuckart is already in the race. It's pretty exciting to see a competitive primary for this off the radar seat.