2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Figueira]

NY-19: Hospital executive Sue Sullivan (D) is in.

Sullivan describes herself as a "lifelong resident" of the district.

Seems like a potentially good candidate.

[BuckeyeNut]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way.

True, the Hamilton bench is significant, but Portune's got great crossover appeal.

[Technocracy Timmy]

That's separate double digit polls, and then the CNN one showing a 9 point lead. Looks like the public is starting to turn against the GOP itself now. Unfortunately, it's still very early. There is a lot of time for things to change in the GOP's favor (or get worse for them as well).

On the other hand, it also seems likely the Trump and the GOP's overall support will stay anemic for this year's elections in November, which would give Democrats a good chance to make some gains in the VA HoD, hold their statewide offices and make a sweep in NJ.

Most interestingly this is with a good economy (relatively). They shouldn't be at this level of damage this early.

This is what really surprises me. God help them if the business cycle recession is during the 2018 midterms. Although the advantage in that scenario is that the economy will likely be recovering by 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

That's separate double digit polls, and then the CNN one showing a 9 point lead. Looks like the public is starting to turn against the GOP itself now. Unfortunately, it's still very early. There is a lot of time for things to change in the GOP's favor (or get worse for them as well).

On the other hand, it also seems likely the Trump and the GOP's overall support will stay anemic for this year's elections in November, which would give Democrats a good chance to make some gains in the VA HoD, hold their statewide offices and make a sweep in NJ.

Most interestingly this is with a good economy (relatively). They shouldn't be at this level of damage this early.

This is what really surprises me. God help them if the business cycle recession is during the 2018 midterms. Although the advantage in that scenario is that the economy will likely be recovering by 2020.

My impression is that we are so polarized now that the economy just doesn't matter as much as it did in e.g. the mid 20th century.  Obama and Clinton didn't get much credit for the recovery in 2014 or 2016, after all.  The late 19th century was a similar environment, in that only the two most severe downturns in a 30 year period (1873 and 1893) actually caused a wave election.  That having been said, it would be unprecedented in US history to get all the way to 2021 without a recession.

[Virginiá]

My impression is that we are so polarized now that the economy just doesn't matter as much as it did in e.g. the mid 20th century.  Obama and Clinton didn't get much credit for the recovery in 2014 or 2016, after all.  The late 19th century was a similar environment, in that only the two most severe downturns in a 30 year period (1873 and 1893) actually caused a wave election.  That having been said, it would be unprecedented in US history to get all the way to 2021 without a recession.

You're right on the credit giving, although I think that might be partially due to an uneven recovery (on numerous levels). However, a wave election due to a recession certainly seems possible still. It just might not have the reach it did even as early as 2008, which was enabled in part by some circumstances that are no longer relevant.

What might be up for more debate is exactly how rough the recession would need to be to generate a certain kind of wave. 2008 was pretty bad, after all.

[The Other Castro]

MI-8 (Mike Bishop, R): Former Defense Dept. official Elissa Slotkin considering a run.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/18/1663669/-Former-Defense-Department-official-Elissa-Slotkin-mulling-bid-against-Michigan-GOP-Rep-Mike-Bishop


CO-6: (Mike Coffman, R): Former Obama energy official Levi Tillemann forms exploritory committee.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/18/1663721/-Former-Obama-energy-official-Levi-Tillemann-forms-committee-against-Colorado-Rep-Mike-Coffman

[Technocracy Timmy]

My impression is that we are so polarized now that the economy just doesn't matter as much as it did in e.g. the mid 20th century.  Obama and Clinton didn't get much credit for the recovery in 2014 or 2016, after all.  The late 19th century was a similar environment, in that only the two most severe downturns in a 30 year period (1873 and 1893) actually caused a wave election.  That having been said, it would be unprecedented in US history to get all the way to 2021 without a recession.

You're right on the credit giving, although I think that might be partially due to an uneven recovery (on numerous levels). However, a wave election due to a recession certainly seems possible still. It just might not have the reach it did even as early as 2008, which was enabled in part by some circumstances that are no longer relevant.

What might be up for more debate is exactly how rough the recession would need to be to generate a certain kind of wave. 2008 was pretty bad, after all.

It could be pretty bad given that the underlying symptoms of the Great Recession haven't really been addressed (stagnant wages, very little inflation, private debt, etc.) If this isn't improved on and a recession hits then 2018 will be pretty ugly for the GOP.

[The Other Castro]

CA-39 (Ed Royce, R): Orange County Pediatrician Mai-Khanh is running.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/05/congress-the-doctors-will-see-you-now/527244/

MN-8 (Rick Nolan, D): If Nolan runs for Governor, Former Grand Marais Mayor and Cook County commissioner Sue Hakes (D) might run. She just formed an exploratory committee.

http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/politics/4270567-hakes-exploring-run-8th-district-seat

MN-1 (Tim Walz, D): Walz is retiring to run for Governor, and Army Veteran Dan Feehan (D) is "preparing to run".

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-enlist-veterans-ahead-of-2018-house-elections-1495394418

OH-1 (Steve Chabot, R): In addition to Portune, the DCCC is also looking at Cincinnati councilman P.G. Sittenfield.

http://wvxu.org/post/do-democrats-believe-they-have-real-shot-defeating-chabot#stream/0

[Seattle]

What's John Barrow up to? Could he make a come back? Or is the GA-12 too far gone for the Ds?

[BuckeyeNut]

PG should stay put. His image is intact, but that's lucky. If he runs for the House and fails, he looks far too ambitious.

Sort of related, DCCC is now targeting IN-02. Buttigieg is an obvious go-to.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

PG should stay put. His image is intact, but that's lucky. If he runs for the House and fails, he looks far too ambitious.

Sort of related, DCCC is now targeting IN-02. Buttigieg is an obvious go-to.

This.  Portune is a far better candidate.

[publicunofficial]

What's John Barrow up to? Could he make a come back? Or is the GA-12 too far gone for the Ds?

Barrow took a resident scholar position at University of Georgia, funnily enough his class is about political polarization and gerrymandering. Not something that would preclude him from running again.

GA-12 went from 55-43 Romney to 56-40 Trump. I doubt he runs, giving up a nice teaching job to run in a district that was drawn specifically to make you lose is a lot to ask.

[smoltchanov]

^ And given present level of political polarization in his and similar southern districts. There are simply not enough Blacks there, and most of the whites stopped to vote for ANY Democratic candidates... ANY, except, may be, a very local levels.

[Bojack Horseman]

Donald Trump's Michigan chairwoman is running for Senate against Stabenow:

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2017/05/trumps_michigan_co-chair_annou.html

This probably won't be any different from the last several Senate Elections here. Republicans will nominate a joke candidate (past examples include Ronna Romney, Rocky Raczkowski, Mike Bouchard, Pete Hoekstra, and Terri Lynn Land) who gets crushed in a landslide.

In a state completely dominated by Republicans at the state level and in the House, you'd think they'd find someone electable to run for the Senate.

[Heisenberg]

Donald Trump's Michigan chairwoman is running for Senate against Stabenow:

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2017/05/trumps_michigan_co-chair_annou.html

This probably won't be any different from the last several Senate Elections here. Republicans will nominate a joke candidate (past examples include Ronna Romney, Rocky Raczkowski, Mike Bouchard, Pete Hoekstra, and Terri Lynn Land) who gets crushed in a landslide.

In a state completely dominated by Republicans at the state level and in the House, you'd think they'd find someone electable to run for the Senate.

Some of them started out somewhat formidable, but self-destructed. Still, yeah. Epstein is literally super tied to Trump, so she has little crossover appeal. And Stabenow is a pretty strong incumbent with strong ties to the state's agriculture groups.

[Crumpets]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but Issaquah City Councilmember Tola Marts is running against Reichert in WA-8. Marts sounds like exactly my favorite kind of Democrat, but then again, I'm not a WA-8 voter, and I don't suspect I'm close what a swing voter in the district looks like, so we shall see:

https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/issaquah-councilmember-tola-marts-to-challenge-dave-reichert-in-8th-district

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but Issaquah City Councilmember Tola Marts is running against Reichert in WA-8. Marts sounds like exactly my favorite kind of Democrat, but then again, I'm not a WA-8 voter, and I don't suspect I'm close what a swing voter in the district looks like, so we shall see:

https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/issaquah-councilmember-tola-marts-to-challenge-dave-reichert-in-8th-district

A stronger recruit then they have had in the past

[GoldenMainer]

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The attack ad writes itself.

[smoltchanov]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but Issaquah City Councilmember Tola Marts is running against Reichert in WA-8. Marts sounds like exactly my favorite kind of Democrat, but then again, I'm not a WA-8 voter, and I don't suspect I'm close what a swing voter in the district looks like, so we shall see:

https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/issaquah-councilmember-tola-marts-to-challenge-dave-reichert-in-8th-district

Well, district became somewhat more conservative in last redistricting, IIRC, so the ablity to appeal to swing voters is a plus for Democratic candidate here...We shall see..

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://tiny.cc/ve8ely (Page 130)

Weekly Yougov poll:
Democrats  - 38 (-2)
Republicans  - 36 (+3)
Not Sure - 17 (+1)
Others - 2 (-1)

[Technocracy Timmy]

Nate Silver,

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Source.

[Young Conservative]

Nate Silver,

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Source.

Legitimate question: How much clout should we continue to give Silver after his seriously botched 2016 prediction.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Nate Silver,

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Source.

Legitimate question: How much clout should we continue to give Silver after his seriously botched 2016 prediction.

Legitimate question: do you follow Nate at all or are you unaware he was constantly saying Trump had a shot an all the big swing states are with MOE?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Nate Silver,

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Source.

Sweating like a dog!

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.