2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Kamala]

That would be an 18 point swing in PA. Dems can maybe pick up 3 or so seats. Same in Michigan, a 15 point swing could net Democrats 2 or 3 seats.

In PA, Meehan, Fitzpatrick, and Costello?

In Michigan, Bishop, Trott, and Upton? Or maybe even Amash's or Walberg's district?

[Holmes]

I think Bergman is more vulnurable than Upton. If Upton retires, I think his seat would be in serious danger of flipping.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Littlefinger]

Ed Perlmutter changes course and will run for re-election to Congress

Smart Move. Imagine he'll likely challenge Gardner in 2020 and become the Dem nominee favorite and will start as the GE favorite.

[Cactus Jack]

ID-01: Malek in.

Seems like this would be roughly the equivalent of trading Chaffetz for Curtis. Given that the Democrats stand absolutely zero chance in ID-01, I'm all in for Malek.

[hardin_co_cz]

OH 5: Haven't seen any mention of this race yet, but it's developing interestingly.
Terrible 2014 Dem. Nominee James Neu primarying a much stronger challenger in Mike Galbraith.
To say the 5th is tough is an understatement, but Latta's unpopularity is showing.
Van Wert Co. Commissioner Todd Wolfrum challenging from right and Bob Kreienkamp challenging from the left in GOP Primary.

[Maxwell]

Ed Perlmutter changes course and will run for re-election to Congress

Smart Move. Imagine he'll likely challenge Gardner in 2020 and become the Dem nominee favorite and will start as the GE favorite.

why would he run for Senate when he quit instead of running for Governor? doesn't seem like Perlmutter wants a promotion.

[The Other Castro]

Ed Perlmutter changes course and will run for re-election to Congress

Smart Move. Imagine he'll likely challenge Gardner in 2020 and become the Dem nominee favorite and will start as the GE favorite.

why would he run for Senate when he quit instead of running for Governor? doesn't seem like Perlmutter wants a promotion.

He probably thought he couldn't beat Polis in a primary.

[Gass3268]

PPP:

49% Democrats
35% Republicans

Source

[windjammer]

PPP:

49% Democrats
35% Republicans

Source

If that is this margin in the end, the House would flip and that wouldn't be even close.

[Coraxion]

PPP:

49% Democrats
35% Republicans

Source

Great poll!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats now lead Republicans by 9.2 in RCP average.

GOP: 38.7%
Dem: 47.9%

Thats a bigger margin than the Dem's 2006 winning margin and 2008 final RCP average.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats now lead Republicans by 9.2 in RCP average.

GOP: 38.7%
Dem: 47.9%

And by 10.3% at 538 (46.7-36.4).  The graph is interesting; D has been relatively stable, but R has fallen off a cliff.  Link

[GeorgiaModerate]

GW Battleground poll, Aug 13-17, 1009 RV

46D, 40R

[Virginiá]

I'm curious how the polls will develop in October 2018. I never really understood why some analysts have said that waves usually tend to break late, then cite 2006 as an example. '06, if you went by the generic polls, was clear as day as far back as January 2006, maybe more. Are they talking about the polls for individual candidates?

[Gustaf]

I'm curious how the polls will develop in October 2018. I never really understood why some analysts have said that waves usually tend to break late, then cite 2006 as an example. '06, if you went by the generic polls, was clear as day as far back as January 2006, maybe more. Are they talking about the polls for individual candidates?

I vaguely recall that it escalated quickly at the end and became a lot worse than expected. For example, I seem to recall the conventional wisdom for a long time was that the Democrats had no chance of taking Congress in 2006 because there were too many seats that were too hard to win.

[American2020]

According to this website, Dems would get 54% of votes, but 47% of House members, thanks to gerrymanderring.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-forecast/

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to this website, Dems would get 54% of votes, but 47% of House members, thanks to gerrymanderring.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-forecast/

There's a separate thread discussing that at https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=271447.0.

[Young Conservative]

According to this website, Dems would get 54% of votes, but 47% of House members, thanks to gerrymanderring.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-forecast/

There's a separate thread discussing that at https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=271447.0.

It isn't just partisan  gerrymandering but poor Democratic strategy.

[Devout Centrist]

According to this website, Dems would get 54% of votes, but 47% of House members, thanks to gerrymanderring.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-forecast/

Let me remind all citizens of the dangers of magical thinking. In this case, the idea that swings will be clustered in cities. If anything, it's far more likely we see pronounced swings in lean, likely, and safe R districts.

[Yank2133]

According to this website, Dems would get 54% of votes, but 47% of House members, thanks to gerrymanderring.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-forecast/

Let me remind all citizens of the dangers of magical thinking. In this case, the idea that swings will either be clustered in cities. If anything, it's far more likely we see pronounced swings in lean, likely, and safe R districts.

It funny and ironic how some on the right are acting like Democrats in 2010.

[The Other Castro]

Sanders campaign staffer Pete D'Alessandro officially running for IA-3.

https://twitter.com/peteforiowa/status/901490077053988864

[MarkD]

Sanders campaign staffer Pete D'Alessandro officially running for IA-3.

https://twitter.com/peteforiowa/status/901490077053988864

Hm. Two "s"-s in D'Alessandro. So then he's not related to Nancy Pelosi (nee D'Alesandro)?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrat average leads:

RCP: +8.9

Fivethirtyeight: +10.2

This is enough to flip the house.

[Technocracy Timmy]

According to this website, Dems would get 54% of votes, but 47% of House members, thanks to gerrymanderring.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-forecast/

Ehh I think 538's analysis on the issue is more accurate: Dems need to win the PV by about 8 points to take back congress.