2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Young Conservative]

Nate Silver,

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Source.

Legitimate question: How much clout should we continue to give Silver after his seriously botched 2016 prediction.

[Young Conservative]

Biden encourages Mitt Romney to run for Senate

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I really hope this happens. There are few men left in American politics with such honor and class.

[Young Conservative]

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Let them waste all that money so they can get Kirked too.

your reference to Kirk doesn't make sense.

[Young Conservative]

Paul Davis launches campaign for KS-2; won't vote for Pelosi for Speaker.

http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Paul-Davis-running-for-congress-440546873.html

Honestly more Democrats should take up this strategy.

I dunno. I don't have an opinion one way or another, but if too many say that, then Democrats win a narrow majority and Pelosi needs their votes to become Speaker, you're looking at maybe Paul Ryan getting the most votes to become Speaker and we're all screwed again.

If there's that many votes to threaten Paul Ryan being speaker then former Pelosi voters should just jump ship. This is where having a good whip count would help a lot.

Its a good way to win grassroots, but I don't see it as a good way to get $$$$$

[Young Conservative]

Paul Davis launches campaign for KS-2; won't vote for Pelosi for Speaker.

http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Paul-Davis-running-for-congress-440546873.html

Honestly more Democrats should take up this strategy.

I dunno. I don't have an opinion one way or another, but if too many say that, then Democrats win a narrow majority and Pelosi needs their votes to become Speaker, you're looking at maybe Paul Ryan getting the most votes to become Speaker and we're all screwed again.

If there's that many votes to threaten Paul Ryan being speaker then former Pelosi voters should just jump ship. This is where having a good whip count would help a lot.

Its a good way to win grassroots, but I don't see it as a good way to get $$$$$

At a certain point just who gives a f*** about money if we can't win seats.

I meant it in the sense that big donors and the DCCC won't dump money into this race if Davis is against the leadership,which will make his victory harder.

[Young Conservative]

According to this website, Dems would get 54% of votes, but 47% of House members, thanks to gerrymanderring.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-forecast/

There's a separate thread discussing that at https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=271447.0.

It isn't just partisan  gerrymandering but poor Democratic strategy.

[Young Conservative]

http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/articles/kennedy-plans-to-run-for-house-seat-held-by-tipton

Retired Marine Chris Kennedy, positioning himself as not too far left or right, to run against Scott Tipton in CO-3.

This is definitely a winnable district for an expanding map in 2018.  In 2012, Scott Tipton won a bare majority of votes, 53.5%.  He has not solidified himself as an incumbent and Democrats have hoped their last two candidates would beat him.  He only won barely a little more in 2016.

#Ride the Wave 2018

That's not a bare majority. Regardless, tilt R.

[Young Conservative]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

[Young Conservative]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

But also minus a winning track record. I think it balances out.

I mean if Charlie Crist could do it.

But he had also won at least once beforehand.

Rossi hasn't won statewide but meh. He kept it close in a blue state each time he tried so I think he has a solid chance.

Crist closely lost in a swing state. Rossi closely lost in a deep blue state. One is clearly more impressive than the other.

[Young Conservative]

When you think politics can't get any stranger:

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Bears a strong resemblance to the plot from a certain episode of Frasier.

Frighteningly so.

[Young Conservative]

I think the fact that so many Republicans are getting outraised (some like Barr, Freelinghuysen, Bishop, Grothman, etc getting absolutely crushed) is another sign that there is a real wave building and a big one.

GOP donors will wait for polls before dropping major cash.

[Young Conservative]

Mike Pence's brother is gearing up to take his the seat Messer is vacating. (Pence's old seat.)

Astounding news!

[Young Conservative]

Gillespie is very much generic R and that's the problem.

Northam is also very much a generic D.

[Young Conservative]

BREAKING: Bob Goodlatte, Chair of House Judiciary and Representative for VA-06, to retire at end of term.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/359596-house-judiciary-chairman-announces-retirement

The district election results:
2016: Trump +25
2012: Romney +20

[Young Conservative]

I know this is a little late but I think that Phillip Price in North Carolina's 11th district should get some attention. He's challenging Mark Meadows so that should make him noticeable enough. I think Price is a great fit for Western North Carolina, he's a progressive who has deep roots in Western North Carolina. I honestly thing if Phillip Price can't win the 11th then no Democrat can.

He has 0 chance of defeating Meadows who has a lot of money himself and in fundraising with conservative groups. The district is also R +14

[Young Conservative]

Democrats up 15 in Marist:

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/930501516376657921

Democrats up 13 points, 51-38, in the congressional ballot in Quinnipiac's latest poll.

So. Much. WINNING.

Let me quote SNL:
"Democrats: "we haven't been this confident since the night before Trump won!" "

[Young Conservative]

That’s a great ad.

[Young Conservative]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Will Hurd is perceived as moderate and is a great campaigner. I think he can keep it close despite the climate.

[Young Conservative]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Will Hurd is perceived as moderate and is a great campaigner. I think he can keep it close despite the climate.

Yes, this is why I was asking.  I saw him in an interview and was very impressed.

Honestly, I'm a bit worried about this seat.  While Hulings doesn't seem like a particularly bad candidate or anything like that (solid B-lister, I'd say), Hurd beat Pete Gallego (an infinitely stronger candidate than Hulings who was basically a perfect fit for the district) twice so he's clearly no pushover.  I worry that the DCCC threw all its weight behind Hulings early on simply because of his connections with the Castro brothers rather than his strength as a candidate (potentially discouraging better candidates from running).  OTOH, maybe no one better was interested for whatever reason.  That said, Hulings can obviously still beat Hurd and this race will probably be close no matter what, but if he does then it'll be strictly because of the size of the wave/exceptional Hispanic turnout.  Right now, I have this district as toss-up tilt-R, but much closer to Lean R than tossup tilt-D (pure tossup is a cop-out category imo ).

I agree. This district is safe than some districts that are more Republican simply by nature of the Republican's strength and Democratic Party fielding poor candidates.

[Young Conservative]

I can't find the article but apparently Paul Davis in KS-02 is out raising his GOP opponent who is a state senator who jumped in atvtheclastvsection cause all the big names passed and he's run on the platform of "stop a democrat from winning this seat". So dems could pick up 2 house seats in Kansas next years

I would even say that KS-02 is more likely than to flip KS-03 at this point. Amazing how much candidate quality alone can affect these things.

KS-02 will be won on candidate quality. KS-03 is very similar to the areas in Virginia and Alabama that swung harshly against the Republicans this year though, so I think it might still be more likely to flip. Who knows, maybe a 3-1 Democratic congregation is possible in Kansas in 2019.

Your expectations are way too high. Also, Paul Davis hasn't raised more than the commutative fundraising of the entire GOP field in the district, which is large.

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?id=KS02

[Young Conservative]

A tax reform bump wouldn't hit until it goes into effect in 2019...just in time for 2020.

[Young Conservative]

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She doesn't meet the age requirement for office.

She’s been in the navy for 20 years... how would a 20-year old be a veteran anyway?

Horrible luck?

In any case, I felt pretty solid on Taylor being able to win reelection...until now. The best bet to take out a guy whose military experience is the cornerstone of his campaign is by running another vet against him.

I doubt Taylor loses. People here seem to like his faux moderate persona. This is a great candidate field by the DCCC though.

[Young Conservative]

Everyone stop looking at these stupid ass polls, as I always say:

ReAlIgNmēNt ImMiNeNt~

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Running means nothing. Winning means everything.

[Young Conservative]

I question the Democrats' ability to keep enthusiasm high for another 11 months. I doubt it can remain at the levels immediately post Trump, especially if Mueller clears Trump and Congress passes infrastructure spending.

[Young Conservative]

Couldn't find a FL thread to post this, and relates to recruitment but.... Possible sign that Rick Scott isn't 100% behind running.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/new-alarm-among-republicans-that-democrats-could-win-big-this-year/2018/01/13/9be31acc-f8a8-11e7-beb6-c8d48830c54d_story.html?utm_term=.9665e350a0b2

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The stupid offshore drilling shenanigan was clearly the White House pushing Scott. I still maintain that Rubio won't run again in 2022 and if Scott wants an easy, cheap seat, he should go for that.

Rubio will run again, and Scott will be forgotten by then and someone’s new will draw attention. It’s now or never for him.