2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Heisenberg]

New PPP poll for Stop The Speaker has Ryan at -8% in his own district, 48% would like someone new

Feingold should run for his seat

He lives in WI-02 IIRC. Though he has been mentioned as a possible candidate for WI-03, and WI-06 in the past as well LOL.

[Heisenberg]

Donald Trump's Michigan chairwoman is running for Senate against Stabenow:

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2017/05/trumps_michigan_co-chair_annou.html

This probably won't be any different from the last several Senate Elections here. Republicans will nominate a joke candidate (past examples include Ronna Romney, Rocky Raczkowski, Mike Bouchard, Pete Hoekstra, and Terri Lynn Land) who gets crushed in a landslide.

In a state completely dominated by Republicans at the state level and in the House, you'd think they'd find someone electable to run for the Senate.

Some of them started out somewhat formidable, but self-destructed. Still, yeah. Epstein is literally super tied to Trump, so she has little crossover appeal. And Stabenow is a pretty strong incumbent with strong ties to the state's agriculture groups.

[Heisenberg]

NH-01: GOP state senator Andy Sanborn to challenge Carol Shea-Porter: http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-republican-andy-sanborn-announces-candidacy-for-1st-district-us-house-seat/10014030

Eh, I think CSP survives. Having Shaheen on the ticket helps her and Kusty (not like she needs any help)

Jeanne Shaheen is not up until 2020. Or is Stefany Shaheen running next year!? I hope she does, Sununu needs to lose before he runs for Senate and makes the NRSC waste money and resources that could be used for real winnable races for real conservative candidates.

His challenge also makes SD-9 an open seat next year, which should help Democrats take back the NH State Senate. That was a 47-46 Clinton seat.

Glorious news!

[Heisenberg]

Honestly I like the Nader-voting, "prada socialist" radical queer Sinema over Blue Dog Congresswoman Sinema.

Frankly, so do I. Hopefully her district moves far enough to the left under the Trump clowncar that she can actually start voting like that.

Trump tanked compared to Romney, and McCain did pretty well there in 2008, so all that made its PVI dart from R+1 to D+4.

[Heisenberg]

CO-05: 2016 Colorado Senate GOP nominee Darryl Glenn is running in the primary against incumbent Doug Lamborn.

The tea party isn't going down without a fight. I wouldn't underestimate Glenn considering he came within six points of defeating Michael Bennett. Glenn also seems like a good fit for this district; Colorado Spring is known for two things: Military Service and Evangelicalism.

I like him, but he probably can't beat Lamborn, right?

Well, Glenn is a USAF veteran, which helps given that the Air Force Academy is in that district. Lamborn (not a veteran) seems to receive a primary challenger every two years (usually from a veteran), but he's always won. Glenn seems to be far more credible than anyone else, though. Other than the lack of military service, is there anything else in particular that the base doesn't like about Lamborn? I never understood his unpopularity.

[Heisenberg]

IN-04 will be having a special election to replace Rokita

The seat will be open next year, but he isn't resigning.

[Heisenberg]

ID-01: Malek in.

[Heisenberg]

Grant Kier (D), the former director of a Missoula nonprofit, is running for MT-AL

Good recruit?

He might be, but its worth noting he isn't originally from Montana. Neither is Assaultforte, but that seems like the type of edge Democrats would need.

Assaulterforte should be fine, even though he isn't from Assualtana. He seems to be pretty popular from what I understand despite Assaultgate. I think he overperforms the GOP Senate nominee (who'll get AT LEAST 45%) by about 5 points or so, should be enough to get above 50%, even though they'll almost certainly bring up the incident.

[Heisenberg]

According to his facebook statement Stewart Mills (MN-8 challenged Nolan in 14 and 16) is not running

Good, Stauber is a much better candidate.

[Heisenberg]

Who unretired in May?

That might have been when Marino withdrew from his appointment or when Perlmutter dropped out of CO-GOV

Has to be Marino, as Perlmutter is a Democrat, and the chart is about Republican-held seats.