2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[BuckeyeNut]

Telling it now house will flip

Dems still need credible challengers in the Clinton-Republican seats and the marginal Trump seats, though. Until Democrats start landing recruits like Lynwood Lewis or Rudy Salas or Pete Festersen, I'll hold off on the House flipping.

And these candidates have what in common?

[BuckeyeNut]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

[BuckeyeNut]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way.

True, the Hamilton bench is significant, but Portune's got great crossover appeal.

[BuckeyeNut]

PG should stay put. His image is intact, but that's lucky. If he runs for the House and fails, he looks far too ambitious.

Sort of related, DCCC is now targeting IN-02. Buttigieg is an obvious go-to.

[BuckeyeNut]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently.

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

Do some candidate research before making pronouncements, eh?

I always do. Read about it in a number of Internet sources (including Daily Kos) and had no reason to doubt it. May be - not Bernie himself, but Bernie-associated organizations, but there is no difference for me.

1: Not what Chickenhawk meant
2: The bold evinces why you are one of the worst posters on here.

[BuckeyeNut]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way.

True, the Hamilton bench is significant, but Portune's got great crossover appeal.

Yeah, but not sure how much that helps him since Hamilton was gorilla-f$cked by splitting it into two districts and including all of Warren in the 1st.

While OH-01 is more conservative than ever, Chabot's gone out in a wave before.

[BuckeyeNut]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way.

True, the Hamilton bench is significant, but Portune's got great crossover appeal.

Yeah, but not sure how much that helps him since Hamilton was gorilla-f$cked by splitting it into two districts and including all of Warren in the 1st.

While OH-01 is more conservative than ever, Chabot's gone out in a wave before.

Yes, but IIRC didn't OH-1 have boundaries all within Hamilton County? Its PVI is notably more GOP friendly with the addition of Warren.

Nope.

Sittenfeld would honestly be better vs Chabot, IMO

Eh. PG would play worse in the Butler county segments.

[BuckeyeNut]

Avon-based Ken Harbaugh, and Ivy-educated Navy pilot and non-profit President, to challenge Bob Gibbs in the Ohio 7th.

[BuckeyeNut]

Avon-based Ken Harbaugh, and Ivy-educated Navy pilot and non-profit President, to challenge Bob Gibbs in the Ohio 7th.

Trump won this district by 30 points on a huge swing from 2012. Good luck with that.

He has a great bio to run for office though. Wonder why he doesn't run for state treasurer instead?

Ohio already has a phenomenal candidate running for Treasurer in State Rep. David Leland.

Harbaugh has a big uphill battle, but Gibbs only ("only") won the district by 13 points in '12, and Zach Space pulled off a much bigger upset in a more conservative version of the 7th back in '06.

[BuckeyeNut]

Can a man named Harbaugh win in Ohio, though?

The biggest obstacle, TBH.

[BuckeyeNut]

Evan McMullin may run for UT-03. Damn. He sounds like he's still weighing a senate bid, but if Hatch runs, it's better for him to play it safe with UT-03, I don't know if Hatch is as unpopular as we think he is.

Or, he could know something we don't and not want to challenge Romney.

[BuckeyeNut]

EMILY's List might be recruiting outgoing State Rep. Alicia Reece to run against Steve Chabot in OH-01.

[BuckeyeNut]

EMILY's List might be recruiting outgoing State Rep. Alicia Reece to run against Steve Chabot in OH-01.

Portune who be the better recruit

Yeah, probably. More crossover appeal and represents more of the district already.

[BuckeyeNut]

State Rep. Tom Patton (R) has announced for OH-16 which is being vacated by Jim Renacci in hopes of running for Governor.

[BuckeyeNut]

State Rep. Tom Patton (R) has announced for OH-16 which is being vacated by Jim Renacci in hopes of running for Governor.

Active unionist and active pro-lifer..... Interesting combination, and not so rare in Midwest...

Less rare in Ohio than in other parts of the midwest.

Forgot that Patton running actually means there's going to be a decently serious Republican primary for the 16th, since state Rep. Christina Hagan announced months ago.

[BuckeyeNut]

Impressive intro for Dem challenger to Andy Barr in KY-06

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjG2fK7kNk

Jim Gray should still run. He won KY-06 by six last year. KY was a blowout for the GOP, and it's doubly impressive because Gray's gay.

[BuckeyeNut]

In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.

[BuckeyeNut]

In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.

eh. She's a natural politician. You can't keep them out of the arena for long. Synema or Janet Napolitano are solid if you're right

Giffords is physically incapable of running a campaign, and most likely not mentally fit to serve. I don't think you grasp how badly she was injured.

[BuckeyeNut]

In what is quickly becoming a crowded primary, former OSU football star Anthony Gonzalez is looking to run as a Republican in OH-16.

[BuckeyeNut]

Billings attorney John Heenan (D) is running against Gianforte

Good recruit or?

He's not a politician and has never been a candidate, so tbd. But his top issue will be health care, followed by campaign finance reform, which is much better than Quist's public lands obsession. Still, who knows how well he'll fundraise and campaign.

Not in Montana, it isn't. And Quist was very adamant about health care.

[BuckeyeNut]

Stivers to be challenged by a former international aid worker. Unfortunately, I think Stivers is safe outside of a truly massive wave, but glad to see someone new challenging him. I was worried OH-15 was going down the route of OH-04.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ossoff could just be raising money to pay off campaign debt.

[BuckeyeNut]

Mike Pence's brother is gearing up to take his the seat Messer is vacating. (Pence's old seat.)

[BuckeyeNut]

Hottinger's out. Won't run for Tiberi's seat.

IIRC, Hottinger is very conservative. So - relatively good news.

Hottinger wouldn't have been a good candidate for the Republicans, anyway.

[BuckeyeNut]

Whaley dropping out of the gubernatorial primary would be Ohio Dem's best bet, though it seems somewhat unlikely, as she seems drawn to executive offices more than legislative ones. That said, if Cordray gets in this week, as he is expected to do, it might provide further incentive. (Though she did previously indicate she wasn't afraid of Cordray.)

Fred Strahorn, the House Minority Leader, would be another good get. He's got the fundraising chops and he could probably activate black voters in Dayton other candidates just couldn't do as well.

Montgomery County Auditor Karl Keith would be another good get, he currently represents more of the district than either Strahorn or Whaley, and he's well known, having served in that office since 2000. Probably the least likely of the three to want it, however.