2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

State Rep. Carol Ammons has formed an exploratory comittee for a run in IL-13. Ammons' seat is in the Champaign-Urbana area, and received an endorsement and funding from Bernie Sanders in her last election.

Unelectable, we need Andy Manar

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DCCC is trying to recruit Jim Gray (who may or may not be interested) for a run in KY-6 against Andy Barr.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/861640729172611075

He'd be a huge get, one who'd instantly make this a tossup (tilt R at worst).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I notice that there are a lot of Democrats running in CA-50 against Duncan Hunter. Anyone know why?

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Also, is anyone planning on running in CA-21 against Valadao? He should be a top target.

Duncan Hunter is being investigated by the DOJ, IIRC.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/862677191880060929

Richard Ojeda in for the Dems in WV-03. Great recruit, extremely tough district.

Great!  Ojeda's definitely an A-list recruit.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CA-10 (Jeff Denham, R): Ex-Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno, and Former astronaut Jose Hernandez are both considering runs.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/15/1661753/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-15?t=1494865338016#update-1494865337000

In other news, it sounds like Kathy Hochul is going to stay on as Lt. Gov, and not challenge Chris Collins.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/lt-gov-hochul-plans-cuomo-running-mate-2018-article-1.3165696

Hernandez would be an excellent recruit, too bad Hochul isn't running against Collins though

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CA-10 (Jeff Denham, R): Ex-Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno, and Former astronaut Jose Hernandez are both considering runs.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/15/1661753/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-5-15?t=1494865338016#update-1494865337000

In other news, it sounds like Kathy Hochul is going to stay on as Lt. Gov, and not challenge Chris Collins.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/lt-gov-hochul-plans-cuomo-running-mate-2018-article-1.3165696

Hernandez would be an excellent recruit, too bad Hochul isn't running against Collins though

To be honest she would have been a heavy underdog, Trump +25 quite massive lead.

Collins has been making tons of unforced errors and is being investigated for insider trading IIRC.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

PG should stay put. His image is intact, but that's lucky. If he runs for the House and fails, he looks far too ambitious.

Sort of related, DCCC is now targeting IN-02. Buttigieg is an obvious go-to.

This.  Portune is a far better candidate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently.

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

Do some candidate research before making pronouncements, eh?

I always do. Read about it in a number of Internet sources (including Daily Kos) and had no reason to doubt it. May be - not Bernie himself, but Bernie-associated organizations, but there is no difference for me.

1: Not what Chickenhawk meant
2: The bold evinces why you are one of the worst posters on here.

Do you REALLY think that i care about your opinion??? Not even funny,,,, In fact - i relish it)))

Dude, get over yourself.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sinema might be waiting for an open seat in 2022.

Sinema would lose badly, Stanton's our best candidate here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sinema might be waiting for an open seat in 2022.

Sinema would lose badly, Stanton's our best candidate here.

I don't think Sinema would lose badly, but either way she's not running. Gallego would be a good candidate too.

Gallego can't win statewide in AZ, at least not yet.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stanton would be a much stronger candidate than Synema or Kirkpatrick IMO.

Frankly agreed. I'm not convinced Sinema is electable statewide just yet, and I'd rather like to keep her as my Representative besides.

Why not? She's a Blue Dog moderate who could reassure suburbanite voters in Maricopa County who are skeptical of Democrats when the Republican isn't Trump.

She has a ton of baggage

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stanton would be a much stronger candidate than Synema or Kirkpatrick IMO.

Frankly agreed. I'm not convinced Sinema is electable statewide just yet, and I'd rather like to keep her as my Representative besides.

Why not? She's a Blue Dog moderate who could reassure suburbanite voters in Maricopa County who are skeptical of Democrats when the Republican isn't Trump.

She has a ton of baggage

Every candidate either has baggage or is an absolute non-entity, that's what I say.

I mean, you can say that, but you're wrong.  Sinema has too much baggage to win statewide.  Stanton is easily our best candidate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stanton would be a much stronger candidate than Synema or Kirkpatrick IMO.

Frankly agreed. I'm not convinced Sinema is electable statewide just yet, and I'd rather like to keep her as my Representative besides.

Why not? She's a Blue Dog moderate who could reassure suburbanite voters in Maricopa County who are skeptical of Democrats when the Republican isn't Trump.

A sad truth is I doubt those voters would be keen on voting for a bisexual atheist, Blue Dog or no. Arizona isn't a firebreathing Bible Belt state, but we still have our share of...shall we say, traditionalists.

There's also some stuff from her days in the Green Party working for the Nader campaign and marketing herself as a liberal firebrand.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

#IL12: It's official: Brendan Kelly (D) will run against Mike Bost (R) in 2018.

Gregg Palermo at Fox2now:

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Glorious news!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

#IL12: It's official: Brendan Kelly (D) will run against Mike Bost (R) in 2018.

Gregg Palermo at Fox2now:

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Glorious news!

Does he have seriously a chance?

Depends how strong a campaign he runs and how good 2018 is for the Democrats.  He seems like a top-tier recruit though and it is absolutely critical that the Democrats get strong recruits in as many potentially competitive districts as possible.  The only way we'll take the house is if we compete not only in districts that are obviously going to be competitive (ex: VA-10), but also in districts like OH-1, IL-12, CO-3, WV-3, AR-2, OH-16, MI-1, KY-6, VA-2, NJ-11, WI-7, etc that could potentially become highly competitive with the right candidate even if they'll start off as lean Republican.  In other words, put as many seats on the table as possible with A-list wave insurance candidates so that we'll be well-positioned to take full advantage if a large wave hits in late September/early October of 2018 (that's usually when lean/likely seats usually start becoming highly competitive left and right in wave years).  Some won't pan out, but many more will if 2018 truly turns out to be a Democratic wave.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

State Sen. Lynwood Lewis (D) is reportedly eyeing a run in VA-02 versus Rep. Scott Taylor (R).  By 2016 presidential margin, this is the 30th-most D House seat held by an R.  Source: https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/883353944696737792

Glorious news!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

We could do much worse than Gallego tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

This. The Democrats desperately need to come around to the fact that a lack of fresh faces is why their presidential bench is so embarrassingly weak at this point. It's also why the "career politician" attacks that newcoming Republicans make against them in swing states and swing districts never fail to stick.

We will likely have additional candidates in that district, but again, Gallego is a retread, but he's also a very good fit for the district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

EMILY's List might be recruiting outgoing State Rep. Alicia Reece to run against Steve Chabot in OH-01.

Reece would be a weak candidate.  Portune or even Sittenfield would be far better!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Too lazy to dig up a link, but apparently Linda Coleman is running in NC-2.  I definitely think she has a shot against Holding, although he's a strong incumbent and this probably starts as lean-R.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

Yes, but minus the baggage.

But also minus a winning track record. I think it balances out.

I mean if Charlie Crist could do it.

But he had also won at least once beforehand.

Rossi hasn't won statewide but meh. He kept it close in a blue state each time he tried so I think he has a solid chance.

Crist closely lost in a swing state. Rossi closely lost in a deep blue state. One is clearly more impressive than the other.

Both were running in massive Republican wave years

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

With news that Sinema is in for senate, This means Stanton (ugh the man known for wasteful spending) is likely in for CD-9.

CD9 leans d, but everyone hates wasteful gov spending, if the Republicans play enough ads its a potential target, not nearly as much as CD1 though.

Dude, I get that you really don't like Stanton, but this seat is safe D if he runs and he's probably the most electable Democrat in the state as far as statewide GEs go.  This seat would probably be safe D anyway, but with Stanton running I'd be surprised if Republicans even pretend to target it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mike Turner didn't raise all that much; I'd keep an eye on him as a dark horse retirement possibility.