2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm from Texas 32nd. I was born and raised here, and have lived my entire life here. And I am telling everyone that Colin Allred doesn't have a chance on God's green earth to win the district, unless it's territory was seriously redrawn. The only semi-feasible way for any democrat to even possibly consider having a fighting chance to represent the district in congress is for someone like Mike Rawlings to attempt to ride a coattail backlash against Trump in 2020. The only reason the district slightly bent for Clinton was because of the pure disgust for Trump. I can guarantee you that this is no lasting effect, should the composition of the district stay intact as is. For the Presidential result, the dems gained 7 points, and the reps lost 11 in the district. Meaning a substantial loss went to third parties, and the rest that went to the dems on the the presidential level were moderate center right wing suburban women. Not a permanent effect. Heck, there was not much of an effect at all on the district even in 2016, except on the presidential level.

I will give an example, there are countless more places in the district that experienced this sort of an effect:

My precinct, no.2018 in the district went:

40% Clinton, 56% Trump. 

But the straight party voters which represent a little over half the voters in my precinct went

28% Democrat, 71% Republican.

The full votes down ballot were also ruby red such as:

Railroad Commissioner: 26% Democrat, 65% Republican

Supreme Court Place 3: 28% Democrat, 67% Republican

Supreme Court Place 5: 31% Democrat, 65% Republican

State Rep: 25% Democrat, 72% Republican

Sheriff: 35% Democrat, 62% Republican

And several other down-ticket positions that went republican by similar margins. The district has not gone blue, it was an optical illusion. Democrats, we need to focus our efforts elsewhere. Texas 32nd is not feasible to win without significant redrawing, especially on a local level. Look elsewhere to pick up seats, sadly, this is not one of them.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I was wondering do the dems have anyone good to take on Carlos Curbelo?

We need a Hispanic version of Joe Machin that looks something like this

That's really the only hope for dems to take the district as is.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ashford is back.

I'm not impressed with Ashford.  His narrow loss in 2016 would have been impressive had Hillary lost NE-02 by 10+ points (i.e. Baron Hill in 2004 in IN-09), but Hillary only lost the district by a point.  Any non-scandal tarred incumbent should have been able run a two points ahead of their Presidential nominee.

He should have squeeked by, but in his defense, he had one good opponent.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

People, try to convince Mark Kelly to run. In 2018 he would be tossup to tilt R vs flake, and tossup to tilt D vs Ward. And in 2022 if McCain leaves, then it will be anywhere from tossup to tilt D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jan McDowell is looking for a rematch against Kenny Marchant in Texas 24th, which is a neighboring district to mine. Filed it on 3/1/2017, and has done such a bad job with publicity since she has like no funding, that I just found out about it today. It's in an R+9 district in suburban DFW, with a popular and well known and entrenched incumbent. Marchant won 56-39 in 2016. And Drumpft won it 51-45.

Nothing to see here folks...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

TX-31: Dems have recruited decorated Air Force veteran MJ Hegar for this Safe R seat.

Very good choice. She seems like a very solid candidate, I think there is even a decent chance that she holds the R to single digits.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Also story missed from July 3rd Daylin Leach is in for PA-07 https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/news/2017/07/06/daylin-leach-congressman-pat-meehan-election.html

Woohoo! Totally endorsed! I rate this as lean R though, and I think Meehan will win about 55-45.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Definately a possibility, hence I called this lean, not likely like most other pollsters thus far.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

Agreed.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

This. The Democrats desperately need to come around to the fact that a lack of fresh faces is why their presidential bench is so embarrassingly weak at this point. It's also why the "career politician" attacks that newcoming Republicans make against them in swing states and swing districts never fail to stick.

We will likely have additional candidates in that district, but again, Gallego is a retread, but he's also a very good fit for the district.

I used to consider Carlos Uresti a great pick until he got himself in a crapload of trouble. Then I thought Tomas Uresti, his brother would be a good pick, but then I realized that it cannot be good since they are brothers with the same last name. Then I thought Nevarez could be good, but then he got in trouble with Rinaldi. Now I think the good choices are Tracy King, Rick Galindo, and a few others.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

^Poncho Nevarez is a name that often pops up, but I think he's running for reelection to the Texas House.

Also, Rudy Salas is apparently going to be announcing for CA-21 soon.

Poncho Nevarez really screwed up when he confronted Rinaldi. As for Rudy Salas, that's very good news!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CA-50's one of the toughest R held SoCal districts to crack.

It won't fall unless 2018 proves to be a blue tsunami, and Hunter gets indicted and convicted.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Impressive intro for Dem challenger to Andy Barr in KY-06

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjG2fK7kNk

Darn! At the time of this post, the video was #2 trending in the entire world! Totally endorsed!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Impressive intro for Dem challenger to Andy Barr in KY-06

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjG2fK7kNk

Jim Gray should still run. He won KY-06 by six last year. KY was a blowout for the GOP, and it's doubly impressive because Gray's gay.

I like Gray (in the non gay way) and think he has a lot of potential, and could definitely win, but McGrath is just in a totally higher league.
Jim Gray was from Lexington though, but yeah, I don't think that's insignificant. McGrath seems like a good candidate on paper.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

In AZ Senate, Jeff Flake is in a losing position. If Gabby Giffords health can handle it, she'd crush him brutally. He has an 18% approval rating. It's not even a toss up at this point.
flake is done

LOL

Giffords will never run for anything ever again.

eh. She's a natural politician. You can't keep them out of the arena for long. Synema or Janet Napolitano are solid if you're right

Giffords is physically incapable of running a campaign, and most likely not mentally fit to serve. I don't think you grasp how badly she was injured.

She's made MASSIVE progress since the shooting. She learned how to talk in a couple of years, I'm not saying she WILL be up for it, I'm saying let's see where she's at decision time.

Give it a break already people.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Billings attorney John Heenan (D) is running against Gianforte

I doubt dems can beat him now, but I pray to God that someone primaries this illegitimate jerk out.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have heard whispers about Sinema announcing a run vs Flake within the next few weeks, and Greg Stanton then announcing a bid for Kyrsten Sinema's current seat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Culberson is going to lose this time - he was always a pretty weak incumbent even before the sudden realization his district is vulnerable.

It will be close, but liddle Abney will hold on.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Michigan House Democrats leader Rep. Tim Greimel (D - Troy) is in for MI-11

Nice!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ben McAdams is officially in for UT-04

Nice!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Conyers is like 100 years old and has been in the House for over 50 years. He feels so entitled to that seat that even if he was caught in the act of murder, he wouldn't step down.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Not looking good for the GOP on the betting markets:

Predictit is a retarded joke. Can't believe the crap actually manages to wriggle it's way into legit arguments.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

For someone with a sense of humour you surely weren't able to handle me making fun of you. You also didn't seem to understand my point, in spite of all your genius.  

Voter: Congressman X shouldn't be in Congress
Smoltchanov: You cannot dictate who should be in Congress, only voters can decide that!

Like, if you don't understand how dumb your point is I'm not sure I could explain it to you.

(And I have a PhD too, well I have a PhD, let's put it that way. And I didn't curse you out like a 14-year old trying to look cool either so I must be the biggest genius in human history by your standards. You should probably sit down and listen to me)

Lol, maybe, but I know a fellow teen when I see one. You sir, act like one

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

For someone with a sense of humour you surely weren't able to handle me making fun of you. You also didn't seem to understand my point, in spite of all your genius. 

Voter: Congressman X shouldn't be in Congress
Smoltchanov: You cannot dictate who should be in Congress, only voters can decide that!

Like, if you don't understand how dumb your point is I'm not sure I could explain it to you.

(And I have a PhD too, well I have a PhD, let's put it that way. And I didn't curse you out like a 14-year old trying to look cool either so I must be the biggest genius in human history by your standards. You should probably sit down and listen to me)

Lol, maybe, but I know a fellow teen when I see one. You sir, act like one.

Ah, yes, Gustaf, the teen who has been registered here for 14 years.

Oops, I rescind my statement.