2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Cactus Jack]

Not shocking but Ossoff is probably going to try again in 2018 https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweigel/status/879417956639363072

Please God no. The guy is flakier than Jeff Flake.

[Cactus Jack]

Stanton would be a much stronger candidate than Synema or Kirkpatrick IMO.

Frankly agreed. I'm not convinced Sinema is electable statewide just yet, and I'd rather like to keep her as my Representative besides.

[Cactus Jack]

Stanton would be a much stronger candidate than Synema or Kirkpatrick IMO.

Frankly agreed. I'm not convinced Sinema is electable statewide just yet, and I'd rather like to keep her as my Representative besides.

Why not? She's a Blue Dog moderate who could reassure suburbanite voters in Maricopa County who are skeptical of Democrats when the Republican isn't Trump.

A sad truth is I doubt those voters would be keen on voting for a bisexual atheist, Blue Dog or no. Arizona isn't a firebreathing Bible Belt state, but we still have our share of...shall we say, traditionalists. Neither thing should matter a bit, but I suspect that it would.

[Cactus Jack]

Stanton would be a much stronger candidate than Synema or Kirkpatrick IMO.

Frankly agreed. I'm not convinced Sinema is electable statewide just yet, and I'd rather like to keep her as my Representative besides.

Why not? She's a Blue Dog moderate who could reassure suburbanite voters in Maricopa County who are skeptical of Democrats when the Republican isn't Trump.

A sad truth is I doubt those voters would be keen on voting for a bisexual atheist, Blue Dog or no. Arizona isn't a firebreathing Bible Belt state, but we still have our share of...shall we say, traditionalists.

There's also some stuff from her days in the Green Party working for the Nader campaign and marketing herself as a liberal firebrand.

Also those things. I mean, of course, her record should speak louder than her past and should matter more than her sexuality or religion, but there are too many ways to put a negative spin on her.

As it stands, she's a safe incumbent in a district that could theoretically be competitive without her. I would prefer to keep her where she is and run Stanton, whose mayoral seat is both inconsequential to the House majority and completely impossible for the Republicans to pick up.

[Cactus Jack]

Honestly I like the Nader-voting, "prada socialist" radical queer Sinema over Blue Dog Congresswoman Sinema.

Frankly, so do I. Hopefully her district moves far enough to the left under the Trump clowncar that she can actually start voting like that.

[Cactus Jack]

Why hasn't any democrat announced a run in Texas 23rd yet? It's kind of ticking me off since it is literally the only district that will be relatively competitive in the state in 2018 should a dem run. The apathy of TexDems is pathetic.

Gallego formed an exploratory committee, IIRC.

Ugh. We need fresh faces, not retreads.

This. The Democrats desperately need to come around to the fact that a lack of fresh faces is why their presidential bench is so embarrassingly weak at this point. It's also why the "career politician" attacks that newcoming Republicans make against them in swing states and swing districts never fail to stick.

[Cactus Jack]

I think it's official: Bryce, McGrath, and Ortiz-Jones are my favorite candidates this cycle.

[Cactus Jack]

ID-01: Malek in.

Seems like this would be roughly the equivalent of trading Chaffetz for Curtis. Given that the Democrats stand absolutely zero chance in ID-01, I'm all in for Malek.

[Cactus Jack]

http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/articles/kennedy-plans-to-run-for-house-seat-held-by-tipton

Retired Marine Chris Kennedy, positioning himself as not too far left or right, to run against Scott Tipton in CO-3.

This is definitely a winnable district for an expanding map in 2018.  In 2012, Scott Tipton won a bare majority of votes, 53.5%.  He has not solidified himself as an incumbent and Democrats have hoped their last two candidates would beat him.  He only won barely a little more in 2016.

#Ride the Wave 2018

Kennedy is probably the best candidate we could hope for in Tipton's district. Military backgrounds always play well in this area of the country.

[Cactus Jack]

With news that Sinema is in for senate, This means Stanton (ugh the man known for wasteful spending) is likely in for CD-9.

CD9 leans d, but everyone hates wasteful gov spending, if the Republicans play enough ads its a potential target, not nearly as much as CD1 though.

Dude, I get that you really don't like Stanton, but this seat is safe D if he runs and he's probably the most electable Democrat in the state as far as statewide GEs go.  This seat would probably be safe D anyway, but with Stanton running I'd be surprised if Republicans even pretend to target it.

I can vouch for this. AZ-09 is only going to continue to swing left, and the Republicans stand no chance in hell here in a Trump midterm.

[Cactus Jack]

Archie Parnell sounds like he’s going to announce another run for SC-5 in 2018.

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article176739486.html

Like McAdams in Utah, it's worth a shot. We need to recruit wave insurance in as many long-shot pickups as we can.

[Cactus Jack]

http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/10/upstate_ny_man_launches_americas_most_radical_congressional_campaign.html

Claudia Tenney recieves a primary challenger running to her left in economics and her right on immigration. Probably doesn't have a chance but kinda interesting.

Nicholas Wan: MEGAPOPULIST

Frankly, I'd like to see him win. He'd be useful on healthcare and his immigration policy would never happen.

[Cactus Jack]

Dems get top candidate in FL-16 to challenge Vern Buchanan. While this is a 54-43 Trump and 54-45 Romney district, it seems like a good candidate who has a high profile and could potentially self fund.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20171018/buchanan-draws-prominent-democratic-opponent

2018 is not a year where we can afford to skimp on wave insurance. In an especially catastrophic environment, Buchanan may find himself with good reason to Fearo the Shapiro.

[Cactus Jack]

Peter King (NY-02) has drawn a challenger which is well-funded. Businessman Tim Gomes has loaned his campaign 1 Million Dollar to become King's first credible challenger in ages. Might King retire instead?

Heartily endorsed. The last thing King needs is to face a self-funding political outsider in a terrifically bad year.

[Cactus Jack]

28-year old State Rep Kaniela Ing is running for Hanabusa’s seat. Hawaii will now have 2 beautiful Representatives.

I just became gayer.

[Cactus Jack]

TX-29, Gene Green is retiring. Safe D.

So are we just cleaning out the Texas delegation come 2018? If so, I fervently hope Barton and Jackson-Lee go out with the cleaners.

[Cactus Jack]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/935716132174123008

Mike Turner a "decent bet" to retire.

OH-10 is R+4.

Let's hear it, Ohioans. What's the bench look like?

[Cactus Jack]

Potentially big: “Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner reconsiders: She may challenge John Katko for Congress”

http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/11/syracuse_mayor_stephanie_miner_reconsiders_running_for_congress.html

Sounds like she's leaning towards running based on the quotes.

I don't actually fancy the Dems' chances in NY-24 - Katko has proven to be a way better incumbent than anticipated and has thus far blanched both Democrats he's faced - but I'm glad they're still taking it seriously.

[Cactus Jack]

Barrasso is done

Businessman Gary Trauner, who narrowly lost 48-47 to Rep. Barbara Cubin in 2008, is challenging Sen. Barrasso for WY-SEN in 2018

Safe R. Still good to have insurance in case another Moore-esque situation comes up, though.

Or if an Erik Prince situation comes up.

[Cactus Jack]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.

Can it be? Are we really going to be given a pass on having to fend off Governor Voldemort?

[Cactus Jack]

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Hearing of a poll in #OH15 showing Dem in a surprisingly close race against NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R). Makes sense: @CookPolitical PVI is only R+7 & district includes Athens & Columbus burbs.

2:47 PM - 14 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/941394177048408069

Suburban curbstomping incoming.

A 'burbstomping.

[Cactus Jack]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

She doesn't meet the age requirement for office.

She’s been in the navy for 20 years... how would a 20-year old be a veteran anyway?

Horrible luck?

In any case, I felt pretty solid on Taylor being able to win reelection...until now. The best bet to take out a guy whose military experience is the cornerstone of his campaign is by running another vet against him.

[Cactus Jack]

Yougov has D+6, down from D+8. That's not good enough to win the house.

YouGov is also complete garbage. Bear that in mind here.

[Cactus Jack]

I question the Democrats' ability to keep enthusiasm high for another 11 months. I doubt it can remain at the levels immediately post Trump, especially if Mueller clears Trump and Congress passes infrastructure spending.

Good thing neither of those will happen and Trump's popularity will continue in a death spiral.

[Cactus Jack]

Senator-elect Sinema

Isn’t he just going to split the crazy person vote with Ward and let McSally sneak through?

Oh, trust me, Nazi Joe is in it to win it. I wouldn't be surprised if McSally got third place in the primary with all the reverse triangulation she's done.