2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Brittain33]

VA-10 (Comstock, R): Dorothy McAuliffe (D), wife of Gov. Terry McAuliffe, is weighing a run.

Oh for the love of God

[Brittain33]

I've never understood enthusiasm for a candidate who is openly bisexual and atheist running statewide in Arizona. Maybe it's my internalized homophobia, but that seemed like a stretch.

[Brittain33]

I would be surprised if that gap holds. Republicans always rally at the end and you end up with a smaller gap.

[Brittain33]

Terry McAuliffe's wife Dorothy will not be running for Congress.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/dorothy-mcauliffe-wife-of-virginia-governor-says-she-will-not-run-for-congress/2017/05/10/19f62b32-35a1-11e7-b412-62beef8121f7_story.html?utm_term=.06b223e4b4d7

[Brittain33]

Avon-based Ken Harbaugh, and Ivy-educated Navy pilot and non-profit President, to challenge Bob Gibbs in the Ohio 7th.

Trump won this district by 30 points on a huge swing from 2012. Good luck with that.

[Brittain33]

Mary Sally Matiella, a CPA who served in the Obama Defense Department as assistant secretary of the Army, is considering challenging Martha McSally in AZ-2.

[Brittain33]

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist 6/21-6/25:

Democrats 48%
Republicans 38%

Source

An there we go

Exciting until you remember at least 6% of those 14% undecideds are Republicans who "come home" after Halloween.

[Brittain33]

CO-6: Tillemann in.

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If you do the math here, you see he's chosen a last name other than the default for obvious reasons.

[Brittain33]

MA-7: Cambridge councilor Nadeem Mazen is primarying Capuano.

Hahaha good luck w that.

[Brittain33]

Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA and Senate Majority PAC (June 23-27)
2018 Senate battleground states only
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/30/15900564/health-bill-politics-midterms

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 35%

Numbers are after hearing criticism of the Republican Health Care plan. Generic ballot before being exposed to this info is 48%-38% in favor of Dems.

[Brittain33]

Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ahead-of-midterms-voters-prefer-democrats-even-as-republicans-appear-more-motivated-to-vote/2017/07/19/470441d6-6c01-11e7-96ab-5f38140b38cc_story.html

D 52%
R 38%

That is a particularly rich and diverse poll. Interestingly, these numbers are for preference for party control, rather than voting intention, and I'm curious how much one can stand in for the other.

[Brittain33]

Definition of a "Some guy"

[Brittain33]

Paul Davis launches campaign for KS-2; won't vote for Pelosi for Speaker.

http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Paul-Davis-running-for-congress-440546873.html

[Brittain33]

This is as big as when the Dems landed Evan Bayh in 2016.

[Brittain33]

Is there a chance the Dems could convince Myrth York to run? She'd have to move.

[Brittain33]

Unless there is a complete civil war, Republicans will come home and close that gap some.

[Brittain33]

What's the source?

Don't know were to put this

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[Brittain33]

Republicans surging after Tax Reform passage in Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot Tracking:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170901-20171205/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

(You have to click on "Midterms: How will you vote?")

Were you the poster predicting a big Northam loss in the days up until the election, LimoLiberal?

[Brittain33]

Republicans surging after Tax Reform passage in Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot Tracking:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20170901-20171205/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

(You have to click on "Midterms: How will you vote?")

You must have really had to dig hard for this one, lol.

On the State Legislator Special Election megathread, he's speculating about trends because Rs just won a state senate seat in MA after a MS non-partisan election where the Indy announced after winning he was caucusing for Republicans. Combined with his gloom and doom on the Northam threads, it's clear what's going on here.

[Brittain33]

Let's try to stay on-topic for this thread, please. There's a harassment megathread in the General forum if people want to discuss there.

[Brittain33]

Everyone will say, that democrats are in very good position now, but i remember them being fairly optimistic in 2014, and even 2010 too (and 2016 on Presidential level). Democrats are very skillfull in snatching defeats from jaws of victory

While the size of the wave could vary, we have a midterm with an unpopular President of the opposing party and that bakes in a certain reaction we wouldn't see in those other years and which has already been validated in elections in 2017.

[Brittain33]

CNN generic ballot:

Democratic 56%
Republican 38%

For is the first time I really believe McCaskill is going to win on the fundamentals, instead of hoping and praying it's going to happen but not being sure how it adds up.

[Brittain33]

The above map only covers through 2017, but we know states will continue to grow or stagnate and lose or gain additional seats. On the Geography board, Muon has projected through 2020:

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2017 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 7 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There are no changes since my projections last year. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, TX-39, CA-53, FL-29, and AZ-10 (#435).
The next five in line are MT-2, AL-7, MN-8, NY-36, and CA-54.

An alternate projection could use just the last two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth for the rest of the decade. That model gives an extra seat to MT at the expense of one from CA.

[Brittain33]

Interesting. New Mclaughlin poll has Democrats narrowly leading the generic ballot 45-44.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/12/20/december-national-survey-results/

lol

[Brittain33]

Btw, Mclaughlin has a C- rating at FiveThirtyEight

Never stopped W from becoming President!