2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's totally a scenario where the AHCA dies in the Senate and completely fades from public memory by the time November 2018 rolls around. Not ready to start celebrating yet.

That wouldn't stop "Congressman X voted to take away your health care" ads.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Q-Poll (From May 4 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,078 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. )

Generic Ballot:

Democrats - 54
Republicans - 38
Undecided - 8

Wow.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456

Maybe it's an outlier, but...wow indeed.  If this is anywhere close, 2018 will be a bloodbath for the GOP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP: D 49, R 38.  A month ago they had it 47-41.  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/05/health-care-puts-house-in-play.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Dave Wasserman at Cook Political Report:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

From Dave Wasserman at Cook Political Report:

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That'd be what, 70 seats or so?

It's currently 239R, 193D, and 3 vacancies.  One of the vacancies is CA-34, which is about to be filled by a Democrat (both candidates in the runoff are D) so that's effectively 194.  So it would be a shift of about 65 to 67.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Martha McSally in a private talk to the Arizona Bankers Association:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

NH-01: GOP state senator Andy Sanborn to challenge Carol Shea-Porter: http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-republican-andy-sanborn-announces-candidacy-for-1st-district-us-house-seat/10014030

[GeorgiaModerate]

Matt Heinz to again challenge Martha McSally in AZ-02: http://tucson.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/matt-heinz-says-he-ll-have-another-go-at-martha/article_669a8d48-5054-11e7-b5ef-eb54ce48431e.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

NY-22: State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi to challenge Rep. Claudia Tenney: http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/06/anthony_brindisi_to_challenge_claudia_tenney_for_congress_in_upstate_ny.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

IL-14: Montgomery Village President [is that really a title?] Matt Brolley to seek D nomination against GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren.  http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/aurora-beacon-news/news/ct-abn-montgomery-mayor-congress-st-0630-20170629-story.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

FL-7: State Rep. Mike Miller running for R nomination against Rep. Stephanie Murphy.  http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-mike-miller-congress-20170629-story.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

State Sen. Lynwood Lewis (D) is reportedly eyeing a run in VA-02 versus Rep. Scott Taylor (R).  By 2016 presidential margin, this is the 30th-most D House seat held by an R.  Source: https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/883353944696737792

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not sure this is right thread for this (mods feel free to move it elsewhere), but Cook Political has shifted ratings on 10 House races, all toward the Democrats:

CA-24 Carbajal   Lean D to Likely D
FL-18 Mast   Solid R to Likely R
IL-10 Schneider   Likely D to Solid D
IL-12 Bost   Likely R to Lean R
IL-17 Bustos   Likely D to Solid D
NY-19 Faso   Lean R to Toss Up
NC-09 Pittenger   Solid R to Likely R
NC-13 Budd   Solid R to Likely R
PA-06 Costello   Likely R to Lean R
VA-02 Taylor   Solid R to Likely R

http://cookpolitical.com/story/10412

[GeorgiaModerate]

Las Vegas councilman Stavros Anthony (R) to challenge D freshman Ruben Kihuen in NV-04: https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/las-vegas-councilman-to-file-for-congress

[GeorgiaModerate]

In-depth article on GA-7 that discusses some of the candidates running for the D nomination next year: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrats-take-aim-gwinnett-based-7th-congressional-district/Zbzm9RhE0kpLkFtTE4qTbN/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ahead-of-midterms-voters-prefer-democrats-even-as-republicans-appear-more-motivated-to-vote/2017/07/19/470441d6-6c01-11e7-96ab-5f38140b38cc_story.html

D 52%
R 38%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, July 27-29, 1972 RV (MOE 2%)

D 44
R 37
Undecided 19

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac asks a slightly different generic ballot question than most other pollsters.  Q asks which party the respondent would like to see in control of Congress; the others ask which party the respondent would vote for.  A voter might intend to vote for their incumbent because they like him/her but prefer to see the other party win overall control for various reasons, such as a check on the President.  IMO the Q version is less useful as a predictor than the standard generic ballot question.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac

House: 50 D, 40 R (was 52/4838 on Aug 3)

Senate: 51 D, 41 R (was 53/39)

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats now lead Republicans by 9.2 in RCP average.

GOP: 38.7%
Dem: 47.9%

And by 10.3% at 538 (46.7-36.4).  The graph is interesting; D has been relatively stable, but R has fallen off a cliff.  Link

[GeorgiaModerate]

GW Battleground poll, Aug 13-17, 1009 RV

46D, 40R

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to this website, Dems would get 54% of votes, but 47% of House members, thanks to gerrymanderring.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-forecast/

There's a separate thread discussing that at https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=271447.0.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gary Johnson only got 3% of the vote in the 2016 presidential election, but this is still kind of interesting:

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