UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread

[Phony Moderate]

A thread for general predictions - overall percentages and seat totals, seat-by-seat discussion etc. Probably I'll post some 'competition' thing at some point too.

[OSR stands with Israel]

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=43.3&LAB=21.3&UKIP=9&LD=21.6&GRN=3

Conservatives 393 (43.3%)
Labour           153(21.3%)
SNP                51(4.85%)
Liberal Democrat 29(21.6%)
Others 24 

[CMB222]

Conservatives - 380
Labour - 180
SNP - 56
Lib Dems - 10
Plaid Cymru - 4
Green - 1
UKIP - 0
Others - 19

[Intell]

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=43.3&LAB=21.3&UKIP=9&LD=21.6&GRN=3

Conservatives 393 (43.3%)
Labour           153(21.3%)
SNP                51(4.85%)
Liberal Democrat 29(21.6%)
Others 24 

Lib Dems aren't going to rise that much, and if they do, they will hurt the tories as much as labour.

Labour will also get a higher vote, than this, they have a solid base of ~ 25% of voters. Don't quote me on this.

Stop trying to make such scenarios happening.

[brucejoel99]

Conservative        374             42%    54 gained from Labour, 14 lost to Lib Dems, 3 gained from SNP, Clacton gained
Labour                 176             26%    Gorton/Rochdale kept, 54 lost to Tories, 1 lost to SNP
Liberal Democrats 25               10%   14 gained from Tories, 2 gained from SNP
SNP                     52               4%     Glasgow E./Edinburgh W. kept, 1 gained from Labour, 3 lost to Tories, 2 lost to LDs
Plaid Cymru          3                 2%
UKIP                    0                 10%
Greens                 1                 3%
Others                  1 (Speaker)  2%
Northern Ireland   18                1%

[Phony Moderate]

Predictions for individual constituencies are probably only worth making once we get to May 11th (deadline for candidate nominations).

[IceAgeComing]

my bold prediction at this point is that in terms of seats; the Lib Dems beat the Tories (and Labour of course) in Scotland.

[diptheriadan]

The SNP keep Scotland with the Tories taking one or two seats. Labour may keep their seat up there. The LibDems will probably keep Island constituency (the name escapes me). Outside of Scotland, Labour will be absolutely routed. I think the Tories will pick up at most 60 seats. UKIP will stay out of Parliament. Not sure about the LibDems.

[Vosem]

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=43.3&LAB=21.3&UKIP=9&LD=21.6&GRN=3

Conservatives 393 (43.3%)
Labour           153(21.3%)
SNP                51(4.85%)
Liberal Democrat 29(21.6%)
Others 24 

Lib Dems aren't going to rise that much, and if they do, they will hurt the tories as much as labour.

Labour will also get a higher vote, than this, they have a solid base of ~ 25% of voters. Don't quote me on this.

Stop trying to make such scenarios happening.

I don't think these scenarios are made likelier by people predicting them on the Internet...

[OSR stands with Israel]

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=46.7&LAB=27.3&UKIP=8&LD=11&GRN=3

Tories 385
Labour 179
SNP 55

[Terry the Fat Shark]

idk but Baconking and I have a bet on the Tories reaching 400 seats with me betting that the Tories will hit 400 seats

[thumb21]

Conservatives 43%
Labour 26%   
Lib Dem 14% 
UKIP 7%   
Green 3%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Conservatives - 42,4% - 377 seats (+47)
Labour - 27,5% - 186 seats (-46)
LibDem - 11,0% - 11 seats (+3)
UKIP - 7,9% - 0 seats (-1)
SNP - 4,3% - 52 seats (-4)
Green - 3,1% - 1 seat (NC)
Plaid Cymru - 0,6% - 4 seats (+1)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Conservatives come close to 380 and surpasses Blair's 1997 PV
Labour down to 175 or slightly over that
SNP loses at least two seats to the Tories
UKIP collapses, in terms of PV, and loses sole constituency

Labour cannot possibly compete with Theresa May as long as Corbyn is their leader.

[Devout Centrist]

Gonna be bold and say narrow Conservative majority.

[Maxwell]

41% Conservatives
31% Labour
12% Liberal Democrats
6% UKIP
4% Greens
4% SNP

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This model puts the Tories over 400 seats with 47% of the PV.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

[Vosem]

Having spent my night looking at individual constituencies and coming up with predictions instead of sleeping (figures are comparison with 2015)...

Conservative 415 (+85)
Labour 146 (-86)
SNP 49 (-7)
Liberal Democrats 14 (+6)
Democratic Unionist 8 (-)
Sinn Fein 6 (+2)
Plaid Cymru 5 (+2)
Green 2 (+1)
Alliance 1 (+1)
SDLP 1 (-2)
Ulster Unionist 1 (-1)
Speaker 1 (-)
Sylvia Harmon 1 (-)
UKIP 0 (-1)

Labour fail to make any gains at all. Anywhere. Conservatives lose two (2) seats, both to the Liberal Democrats: Richmond Park (which was already done at a by-election) and Twickenham (their one real loss). Lib Dems lose Carshalton and Southport, but gain 8 other seats (including Richmond Park), mainly from Labour but also 2 from the Conservatives and 2 from the SNP. Only one Leave-voting seat, Norfolk North, is still held by the Lib Dems. The SNP makes a single pickup, in Edinburgh South, while losing 8 seats, 6 to the Conservatives. The Labour collapse in Wales sees Plaid Cymru gaining their strongest result ever, winning Rhondda (as they did in the Assembly election) along with Ynys Mon. The Green popular vote collapses nationwide, but they manage a gain off the Labour carcass in Bristol West. UKIP, too, collapses nationwide, but they have no such silver linings, as the Conservatives gain their seat of Clacton and win virtually all of UKIP's targets, such as Boston and Hartlepool (technically a gain from Labour).

The UUP lose both of their current seats, but gain Belfast South.

[peterthlee]

idk but Baconking and I have a bet on the Tories reaching 400 seats with me betting that the Tories will hit 400 seats

Quite a long stretch. Still, not impossible.
I bet for 360 seats; 1/3 Tories will be pro-EU MPs.

[Bacon King]

idk but Baconking and I have a bet on the Tories reaching 400 seats with me betting that the Tories will hit 400 seats

Quite a long stretch. Still, not impossible.
I bet for 360 seats; 1/3 Tories will be pro-EU MPs.

when he loses he'll have to put Jeremy Corbyn's face in his signature for a week

[Blair]

As these are the only 4 who actually matter in terms of %

Conservatives 45%
Labour 27%
Liberal Democrats 10%
UKIP: 7%

[Phony Moderate]

Remember that it looks as if UKIP are only going to field candidates in, at most, half of all seats. So on present polls they'd only get 2-4%. Unless the pollsters are accounting for that fact, which I don't believe is the case.

[mvd10]

Conservatives 44%
Labour 27%
Liberal Democrats 12%
UKIP 5%
SNP 4.5%
Greens 4%
NI 1.5%
Welsh parties 1%
Other 1%

[jaichind]

Remember that it looks as if UKIP are only going to field candidates in, at most, half of all seats. So on present polls they'd only get 2-4%. Unless the pollsters are accounting for that fact, which I don't believe is the case.

Good point. Are the Greens running candidates in every seat this time ?

[Bacon King]

Remember that it looks as if UKIP are only going to field candidates in, at most, half of all seats. So on present polls they'd only get 2-4%. Unless the pollsters are accounting for that fact, which I don't believe is the case.

Good point. Are the Greens running candidates in every seat this time ?

It appears that the Green Party is encouraging their local organizations in marginal seats to stand down and decline to run a candidate in places where the subsequent anti-Tory tactical voting could make a difference. Here's one article I've found about a specific seat where the Greens aren't running but I'm sure its far from the only constituency where it's happening.