UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread

[jaichind]

My best guess for GB right now would be

CON   45.2%    353 seats
LAB    35.9%    220 seats
LIB       8.1%       5 seats
UKIP     3.2%       0 seats
Greens  1.8%       1 seats
SNP      4.2%     50 seats
PC        0.6%       3 seats

These results seems to indicate that Corybn will be around for a while

[mgop]

Conservative 290+
Labour 280+
SNP 50+
DUP 10
Sinn Fein 5
Plaid Cymru 4
SDLP 2
Lib Dems 2
Greens 1

[Horus]

Both labour and the Tories make single digit gains, snp loses 15 or so seats, lib Dems lose 2 or 3.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Prediction:
Tories - 385
Labour - 180
SNP - 50
DUP - 8
Lib Dems - 7
Greens - 2
Northern Ireland Seats - 18

The DUP should be in the 18 NI seat count.

I meant PC not sure why I put DUP

[Niemeyerite]

Let's be bold:

Conservatives 41%
Labourists 40%
LDs 9%
Others 10%

[IceAgeComing]

Prediction:
Tories - 385
Labour - 180
SNP - 50
DUP - 8
Lib Dems - 7
Greens - 2
Northern Ireland Seats - 18

The DUP should be in the 18 NI seat count.

I meant PC not sure why I put DUP

Where on earth are you getting five Plaid gains from?

[Del Tachi]

Tories - 328
Labour - 244
SNP - 55
Lib - 4
Green - 1
N.I. - 18

CON majority of 6

[Kamala]

Prediction:
Tories - 385
Labour - 180
SNP - 50
DUP - 8
Lib Dems - 7
Greens - 2
Northern Ireland Seats - 18

The DUP should be in the 18 NI seat count.

I meant PC not sure why I put DUP

Where on earth are you getting five Plaid gains from?

Rhondda and Ynys Mons are 2, but I cannot think of three more.

[IceAgeComing]

I'd have Ceredigion ahead of Rhondda - the last would be a real rich, never mind two past that...

[kyc0705]

I punched my "gut instinct" numbers into PrincipalFish, and here's what I got:

Conservative (42.1%): 333 seats
Labour (36.2%): 240 seats
Scottish Nat'l (3.8%): 46 seats
Liberal Democrats (8.3%): 7 seats
Plaid Cymru (0.7%): 4 seats
Green (1.9%): 1 seat
—
Northern Ireland: 18 seats
Speaker: 1 seat

Outcome: Conservative majority of 16

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I'd have Ceredigion ahead of Rhondda - the last would be a real rich, never mind two past that...

I did the math wrong and noticed that I accidentally applied an excess somewhere I shouldn't have, good catch I think you will find it is all right now (although most people will still find my Torie and Labour numbers absolutely insane )

[Terry the Fat Shark]

So just to clarify my prediction is:
Prediction:
Tories - 385 (technically 384 with speaker)
Labour - 184
SNP - 50
Lib Dems - 7
PC - 4
Greens - 2
Northern Ireland Seats - 18

[User157088589849]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/advanced-swingometer-map

This is an excellent site. Yes the boundary changes have changed some seats and the swings are uniform but you do get a picture of what can happen with a few votes here and there.

[Pericles]

2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 385+55 48.3%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 201-28 34.0%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 43.11 3.9%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 2-7 7.0%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 1_ 1.9%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0_ 3.3%
650 seats
326 for majority

[Former President tack50]

I'd have Ceredigion ahead of Rhondda - the last would be a real rich, never mind two past that...

I mean, maybe Plaid does in Wales what the SNP did in Scotland? If they replicated the SNP's 2015 vote performance the results would be:

PC 40
Everyone else 0

If they replicated the SNP's polling average for this election (around 42-25-25-5) then the results would be:

PC 29
Con 7
Lab 4

Not like either scenario is likely at all though.

[windjammer]

Conservatives will get 30 seats more than last time

[Kamala]

I'd have Ceredigion ahead of Rhondda - the last would be a real rich, never mind two past that...

I mean, maybe Plaid does in Wales what the SNP did in Scotland? If they replicated the SNP's 2015 vote performance the results would be:

PC 40
Everyone else 0

If they replicated the SNP's polling average for this election (around 42-25-25-5) then the results would be:

PC 29
Con 7
Lab 4

Not like either scenario is likely at all though.

Huh. That'd be interesting - would it basically doom the major parties into coalitions now, as neither party would not be able to gain a majority without a landslide? Or would it just doom Labour to that role?

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

46.3% Tories (+9.6%)
32.0% Labour (+1.5%)
  8.5% LibDems (+0.6%)
  3.8% SNP (-0.9%)
  3.7% UKIP (-9.0%)
  2.5% Greens (-1.3%)
  1.8% Various N.I. parties (-0.2%)
  0.6% Plaid Cymru (n.c.)
  0.8% Others

Turnout: 68.9% (+2.5%)

370 seats - Tories
202 seats - Labour
  47 seats - SNP
  18 seats - Various N.I. parties
    9 seats - LibDems
    3 seats - Plaid Cymru
    1 seats - Greens
    0 seats - UKIP

[Helsinkian]

Seat prediction:

Conservatives 361
Labour 212
SNP 46
LibDems 6
Plaid Cymru 5
Greens 1
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18 (DUP 10, SF 5, SDLP 2, Ind. 1)

[Matty]

It's somewhat odd to see so many american democrats here rooting for corbyn, who is far far to the left of the democratic party. May is left of even hillary on some issues, yet many people who voted for hillary are pulling for corbyn.

[mgop]

It's somewhat odd to see so many american democrats here rooting for corbyn, who is far far to the left of the democratic party. May is left of even hillary on some issues, yet many people who voted for hillary are pulling for corbyn.

well they are probably bernie democrats not hillbots

[Former President tack50]

It's somewhat odd to see so many american democrats here rooting for corbyn, who is far far to the left of the democratic party. May is left of even hillary on some issues, yet many people who voted for hillary are pulling for corbyn.

To be fair, they don't really have an alternative. Theresa May isn't much better for them and the UK has a 2 party system (not as strict as the American one but still a 2 party system)

I do think the Lib Dems should be their first choice though, not Labour.

[Phony Moderate]

Well, it's been a few pages since we've seen this kind of topic brought up.

[Devout Centrist]

Narrow CON majority, although I wouldn't surprised if I'm totally wrong.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It's somewhat odd to see so many american democrats here rooting for corbyn, who is far far to the left of the democratic party. May is left of even hillary on some issues, yet many people who voted for hillary are pulling for corbyn.

To be fair, they don't really have an alternative. Theresa May isn't much better for them and the UK has a 2 party system (not as strict as the American one but still a 2 party system)

I do think the Lib Dems should be their first choice though, not Labour.

Yeah if I had the same ideology in the U.K, I would be a Lib Dem/Labour swing voter.