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| | |-+  What is more likely to be overturned by the Supreme Court within a decade
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Question: Which of these two cases are more likely to be overturned by the Supreme Court in the future
Roe v Wade   -47 (82.5%)
Obergefell v Hodges   -10 (17.5%)
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Total Voters: 57

Author Topic: What is more likely to be overturned by the Supreme Court within a decade  (Read 890 times)
Medal506
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« on: April 20, 2017, 10:36:40 pm »
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My prediction is Ginsburg or Kennedy will step down by 2019 giving Trump another vacancy which would tilt the Supreme Court 5-4 conservative. If Donald Trump is re elected in 2020 then he will likely get another two vacancies on the Supreme Court possibly even 3 if Thomas decides to retire which would make the Supreme Court 6-3 or 7-2 conservative. My prediction is Obergefell v Hodges will be overturned by 2025.
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anthony1691
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« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2017, 10:45:06 pm »
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I doubt that either will happen, but probably Roe V. Wade as abortion is currently a more controversial issue than gay marriage.
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End Abortion Now!!
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2017, 11:08:16 pm »
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This isn't even a question.  Even the most conservative courts would probably ignore a full rehearing of Obergefell, but they might entertain allowing individual judges or counties to abstain from partaking in gay weddings (and would certainly side with florists, bakers, and the like).  On the other hand, while I am somewhat concerned about Roberts's vote, overturning Roe is a common promise on the right today and the votes could theoretically be there by the end of 2017.
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We elected you to defund Planned Parenthood and save unborn lives.  Do your job!
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Southern Delegate TimTurner
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2017, 12:30:32 pm »
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I doubt that either will happen, but probably Roe V. Wade as abortion is currently a more controversial issue than gay marriage.
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Peebs
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2017, 02:32:05 pm »
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I doubt that either will happen, but probably Roe V. Wade as abortion is currently a more controversial issue than gay marriage.
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2017, 02:24:24 am »
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Unless you just crawled out of a cave you entered several years ago, it's obviously option 1.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #6 on: April 25, 2017, 06:06:23 pm »
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Neither
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Moderate Republican who loves supporting populist movements.

Parties I Support:

US: Republican
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2017, 02:08:47 am »
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Neither
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Ichabod
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« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2017, 11:07:27 pm »
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This isn't even a question.  Even the most conservative courts would probably ignore a full rehearing of Obergefell, but they might entertain allowing individual judges or counties to abstain from partaking in gay weddings (and would certainly side with florists, bakers, and the like).  On the other hand, while I am somewhat concerned about Roberts's vote, overturning Roe is a common promise on the right today and the votes could theoretically be there by the end of 2017.

People believed votes actually are to overturn Roe v. Wade in 1992, but it didn't happen.
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tallguy23
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« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2017, 03:08:56 pm »
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Neither but Roe is more likely.

Many people still view abortion as murder. Even if they might disagree with same-sex marriage, they don't believe it's led to any loss of life.
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Economic score: +0.39
Social score: -1.22
MarkD
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« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2017, 10:16:54 pm »
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Neither but Roe is more likely.

Many people still view abortion as murder. Even if they might disagree with same-sex marriage, they don't believe it's led to any loss of life.

The only things that have been lost by people who oppose same-sex marriage is: 1) their presumption of their moral superiority, and 2) a  basically rational, though flimsy, connection between the concepts of marriage and reproduction.

Be that as it may, this question is about the likelihood of the Supreme Court overturning ITS decisions on these two topics, and so public opinion of abortion and same-sex marriage is hardly relevant. Are Ginsburg or any other liberal Justices going to leave the bench in the next 3.5 years? Is Kennedy, the perpetual swing vote? And when a vacancy occurs, what is the likelihood that Trump will fulfill his campaign promise -- to appoint people with "a conservative bent"?
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Most important issue in presidential politics: appoint the most objective interpreters of law to the Supreme Court, preferably originalists. Most important legislative issue: adopt a constitutional amendment that rewrites Section 1 of the 14th Amendment, to make its meaning narrower and clearer.
Spark498
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« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2017, 10:34:23 pm »
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Roe v. Wade
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2020: Trump

Political Spectrum Score:
Economic: +1.47 (Centrist)
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Foreign Policy: 4.52 (Neo-Con)
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Environmental: -7.38 (Eco-Socialist
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