2017 French Presidential Election - Predictions Thread
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Author Topic: 2017 French Presidential Election - Predictions Thread  (Read 9718 times)
Kringla Heimsins
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« Reply #25 on: April 21, 2017, 06:18:51 PM »

Macron: 24%
Fillon: 23%

Le Pen: 22%
Mélenchon: 18%
Hamon: 7%
Dupont-Aignan: 3%
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #26 on: April 21, 2017, 06:56:16 PM »

I'm going with Macron and Fillon based on no reason other than I think Fillon is probably underpolling because a) he's become one of those candidates and b) his voters are most likely to vote (Contrast to JPM).
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #27 on: April 21, 2017, 07:16:35 PM »

FBM: 23%
Panzergirl: 23%
Fillon: 22%
Mélenchon: 18%
Hamon: 8%
NDA: 3%
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #28 on: April 21, 2017, 07:25:35 PM »

Odds for each matchup:
- FBM/Panzergirl: 40%
- Panzergirl/Fillon: 25%
- FBM/Fillon: 20%
- Panzergirl/Mélenchon: 8%
- Fillon/Mélenchon: 5%
- FBM/Mélenchon: 2%
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Intell
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« Reply #29 on: April 21, 2017, 07:43:36 PM »

FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, 2017

Marine Le Pen: 26.0%
Jean Luc Melechon: 22.20%
Emmanuel Macron: 22.10%
Francois Fillon: 17.0%
Benoit Hamon: 6.9%
Dupont-Aigan: 2.9%
Phillip Poutou: 1.6%
Asselanu: 0.7%
Natalie Arthaud: 0.6%

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Maxwell
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« Reply #30 on: April 21, 2017, 08:38:51 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2017, 08:44:05 PM by Maxwell »

24% Le Pen
23% Macron
21% Fillon
18% Melenchon
7% Hamon
4% NDA

Sadly, I think Melenchon is over-polling as the far left tends to - and will end up at the low end of his poll numbers. On the opposite wave-length, I think Fillon ends up on the high end of his polling because there are enough LR members that either don't care about his scandal or were kind of ashamed to admit to still voting for him. Macron declines a bit, Le Pen rises a bit, but nothing crazy. Macron-Le Pen run-off as we've been expecting for months.

Bonus The Run-off:

57% Macron
43% Le Pen

Better than expected, but still a loss.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #31 on: April 21, 2017, 08:59:44 PM »

25% Macron
24% Le Pen
20% Fillon
17% Mélenchon
8% Hamon
4% NDA
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« Reply #32 on: April 21, 2017, 09:03:23 PM »

I hope Fillion beats Le Pen


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heatcharger
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« Reply #33 on: April 21, 2017, 09:16:03 PM »

25% Le Pen
23% Macron
22% Fillon
15% Melenchon
11% Hamon
4% NDA

I highly suspect Le Pen is slightly under-polling and Mélenchon is over-polling significantly. The youngs who may have flipped over will fall back into Le Pen's column, and I think some leftists will go back to Hamon. I don't think the PS has deteriorated enough for Hamon to get into single-digits.

Some runoff predictions:

58% Macron
42% Le Pen

53% Fillon
47% Le Pen

60% Macron
40% Fillon
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Zuza
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« Reply #34 on: April 21, 2017, 09:40:09 PM »

Macron - 23.1 %
Le Pen - 23.1 %
Fillon - 21.8 %
Mélenchon - 16.7 %
Hamon - 7.3 %
Dupont-Aignan - 4.3 %
Lassalle - 1.6 %
Poutou - 1.1 %
Asselineau - 0.7 %
Arthaud - 0.2 %
Cheminade - 0.1 %

Turnout: 75.4 %.

Run-off:
Macron - 59.8 %
Le Pen - 40.2 %
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Ronnie
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« Reply #35 on: April 21, 2017, 10:34:16 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2017, 10:36:14 PM by Ronnie »

I'll be conventional and guess it comes down to Macron and Le Pen.  I don't know enough about the other candidates to predict percentages with any level of confidence.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #36 on: April 22, 2017, 02:49:28 AM »

Macron 25%
Le Pen 23.5%

Mélenchon 20.5%
Fillon 19.5%
Hamon 5.5%
Dupont-Aignan 3.5%
Others 2.5%
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SPQR
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« Reply #37 on: April 22, 2017, 03:48:17 AM »

Le Pen 25%
Macron 23%
Fillon 22%
Melenchon 18.5%
Hamon 6%
Dupont-Aignan 3%
Others 2.5%
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #38 on: April 22, 2017, 05:47:28 AM »

1. Arthaud
2. Lassalle
3. Juppe
4. Montebourg
5. Chair which was used by Mitterand
6. Poutou
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #39 on: April 22, 2017, 06:09:08 AM »

23 le pen
23 f.b.m.
20 mélenchon
20 fillon
6 hamon
4 n.d.a.
4 others
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CrabCake
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« Reply #40 on: April 22, 2017, 09:22:24 AM »

I'm not going to predict numbers or even order, but i am going to predict that the top four are ridiculously close together, like the fourth and first place candidate are still only two percentage points apart.
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Donnie
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« Reply #41 on: April 22, 2017, 09:41:53 AM »

Final prediction:

25% Le Pen
23% Fillon
-----------------
23% Macron
17% Melenchon
  7% Hamon
  3% Dupont
  2% Others
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #42 on: April 22, 2017, 09:48:50 AM »

Boring prediction, but:

Le Pen 24%
Macron 23%
---------------------
Fillon 20%
Mélenchon 19%
Hamon 7%
NDA 4%
Others 3%
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #43 on: April 22, 2017, 10:15:47 AM »

Are most people here buying Nate's analysis?
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jaichind
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« Reply #44 on: April 22, 2017, 11:00:39 AM »
« Edited: April 23, 2017, 07:16:58 AM by jaichind »

Taiwan Province ROC based election prediction blogger


 
Has Len Pen over-polling and Hamon and to some extent Fillon under-polling

Macron 23.3%
Le Pen 21.3%
Fillon 20.4%
Melenchon 18.4%
Hamon 9.7%
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Xing
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« Reply #45 on: April 22, 2017, 01:05:57 PM »
« Edited: April 23, 2017, 01:06:05 AM by xīngkěruě »

My prediction is basically a wild guess, but...

Le Pen 25%
Flawless Beautiful Macron Purple heart Purple heart Purple heart 23%

Fillon 22%
Mélenchon 18%
Hamon 8%
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Zanas
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« Reply #46 on: April 22, 2017, 01:34:05 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2017, 06:27:55 PM by Watermelon sin Jamón »

Mélenchon 15,8 %

The rest I frankly don't know, and frankly don't care.

edit : Ok, so FWIW, once a junkie...

Le Pen 24,7
Fillon 21,8
Macron 21,5
Mélenchon 15,8
Hamon 8,3
Dupont-Aignan 3,3
Poutou 1,6
Lassalle 1,1
Asselineau 0,9
Arthaud 0,7
Cheminade 0,3
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Umengus
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« Reply #47 on: April 22, 2017, 01:54:30 PM »

Bold prediction:

Marine 26
Macron 25
Fillon 22
Melanchon 15
Hamon 6
NDA 3
lasalle 1,5
others: 1,5
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mgop
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« Reply #48 on: April 22, 2017, 02:57:22 PM »

25% Le Pen
22% Fillon
20% Macron
17% Melenchon
10% Hamon
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Beet
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« Reply #49 on: April 22, 2017, 05:36:50 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2017, 05:55:18 PM by Beet »

25.0% Le Pen
23.5% Macron
22.0% Fillon
17.5% Melenchon
7.5% Hamon

EDIT: Adjusted for what jaichind pointed out.
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