2017 French Presidential Election - Predictions Thread

[jaichind]

25.5% Le Pen
24.0% Macron
22.5% Fillon
18.0% Melenchon
8.0% Hamon

That leaves everyone else, including Dupont-Aignan, at 2% in total.  As much as I think there will be significant tactical voting with the "other" vote will under-perform polling I doubt the total other vote gets down to 2%. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

24% Le Pen
23% Fillon
21% Macron
18% Melenchon
8% Hamon
6% Other

Going to be bold and say the following, Macron as a third party candidate may lack the same GOTV infrastructure as the established candidates do (this is a bit of an issue as his supporter are probably not the most likely to vote). I suspect their will be a coming home effect for Fillon as Conservatives choose to vote for the mainstream conservative despite major controversies surrounding Fillon. Le Pen voters are the most locked in so she should hit her polling numbers, though has less room to grow then the others. 

[jaichind]

Out of the 40 predictions posted so far

35 predicted Le Pen to make it into the second round
27 predicted Marcon
16 predicted Fillon
2 predicted Melenchon

It seems on atlas so far Fillon's chances are brighter than most polls suggests.

[Pericles]

Le Pen vs Melenchon.

[PresidentSamTilden]

The notorious MLP 25
FBM 22
Fillon 19
Melenchon 15

MLP gets a anti terrorism boost, FBM gets enough voters to suck it up and push him over. Fillon holds and Melenchon loses a couple points to apathy and FBM strategic voters. I think this is most likely, but who knows...maybe chaos will reign again.

[Cynthia]

Macron - 24.5%
Fillon - 23.7%
Le Pen - 22.6%
Melenchon - 19.5%
Hamon - 8.2%
Dupont-Aignan - 3.7%
Other - a few percent

[Pericles]

2017 French presidential election-First round results
Marine LePen-24.8%
Jean Luc Melenchon-22.1%
Emmanuel Macron-21.5%
Francois Fillon-19.1%
Benoit Hamon-5.5%

[Talleyrand]

Le Pen- 25 5
Fillon- 23.5
Macron- 22.5
Melenchon- 17.5
Hamon- 7
NTA- 4

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Le Pen 25%
Macron 23%
Melenchon 18%
Fillon 17%
Hamon 8%
Others 9%

[CMB222]

Macron 25%
Le Pen 24%
Fillon 20%
Melenchon 18%
Hamon 7%
Others 6%

[Crumpets]

Here's my bold prediction. While the conventional wisdom has it that the recent poll mistakes have been due to underestimating the strength of conservatives, it could also jut be attributed to missing late momentum swings due to herding in the last few days. Brexit polls seemed to assume that the momentum against Brexit because of Jo Cox's murder would continue, and missed the late momentum Brexit had in the last few days. Likewise, polls assumed Hillary would continue to recover from Comeygate, despite internal polling showing the race tightening further in the last two days of the campaign.

Looking at the French polls, it looks like they have Mélenchon's recent momentum stalling. I'm going to make a bold guess that his momentum has actually continued, but is not reflected in polls because of herding in the days before the election, and this is my guess:

Macron 23%
Mélenchon 22%
Le Pen 22%
Fillon 19%
Hamon 6%
Dupont-Aignan 4%
Others 4%

[Tender Branson]

It seems I have the most pro Le Pen prediction so far ...

I'm doing a slight last modification in the morning, but I still expect both Le Pen and Fillon to do well today. The Left not so much.

[Shadows]

Le Pen - 24%
Macron - 22%
Melenchon - 21%
Fillon - 19%
Hamon - 6%
Dupont - 3%
Poutou - 2%
Others - 3%

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Le Pen 24.1%
Macron 23%
Fillon 21.9%
Melenchon 17.3%
Hamon 5.7%

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Le Pen 26%
Fillon 23%
Macron 23%
Melenchon 17%

[Tender Branson]

OK, so here's my absolutely final prediction for today:

26.5% Le Pen
22.2% Fillon
22.0% Macron
18.5% Melenchon
  6.9% Hamon
  2.0% Dupont
  1.9% Others

My personal MoE is +/- 1% for candidates over 10% and +/- 0.5% for those under 10%.

Turnout: 76.8% (MoE +/- 2%)

...

Le Pen will stand out from the pack, because the rural, disintegrating regions will deliver strongly for her. That's not because of the recent terror attack, but because of long-standing problems in these rural areas.

Fillon will also do better than polls show, because of the rural areas as well. Despite all the scandals, people won't give much of a damn about it when push comes to shove and there are a lot of old reliable voters out there who are still backing him.

Macron will roughly get what the polls show, maybe fall slightly short of it. But he has a solid backing in the urban and suburban areas, Bretagne and among the young and educated.

I previously thought Melenchon might do much worse than the polls showed, but I guess he could do well with disappointed former Hollande-voters and also with the urban working class immigrant crowd, who won't back Le Pen in high numbers like the rural French ones.

There's not much to say about Hamon ... other than that he might be the surprise "winner" of the day ... getting above 10% !!!

Other small candidates will get crushed, as people don't want to waste their votes.

[JGibson]

Emmanuel Macron (EM) 24.10%
Marine Le Pen (FM) 23.76%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (FI) 21.88%
François Fillon (LR) 17.40%
Benoît Hamon (PS) 8.02%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF) 3.44%
Others 1.4%

[NeederNodder]

Le Pen vs Melenchon.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

26% - Le Pen (FN)
23% - Macron (EM)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --
20% - Fillon (LR)
18% - Mélenchon (Communist)
  6% - Hamon (PS)

  7% - Others

[Eraserhead]

Macron 26%
Le Pen 25%
Fillon 18%
Melenchon 17%
Hamon 10%
Others 4%

[Max Stirner]

le pen 25
fillon 23
macron 22
melenchon 19
hamon 6

[jaichind]

Out of the 57 predictions posted so far

51 predicted Le Pen to make it into the second round
37 predicted Marcon
20 predicted Fillon
 6 predicted Melenchon

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm going to keep my prediction of it being super close, but will say that the run off is Macron-Fillon as the latter's supporters flood home.

[Klartext89]

Le Pen - 26%
Fillon - 21%

Macron - 20.5%
Melenchon - 19%
Hamon - 6.5%
Dupont - 3%
Poutou - 2%
Others - 2%

Turnout: 77,7%

[Bacon King]

Le Pen 24.6%
Melenchon 20.9%
Macron 20.4%
Fillon 17.8%
Hamon 10.0%
Dupont 3.4%
Poutou 1.2%
Assellineau 0.8%
Lassalle 0.6%
Arthaud 0.2%
Cheminade 0.1%