NGIM

[Wells]

Those who have been on IRC on Atlasian election weekends will know that I give tons of beautiful models and numbers about the elections going on. So I now present you the "Nathan Gold Institute of Models". (Nathan Gold is either my alter ego or nerdier twin or whatever.) This Institute will be dedicated to The Almighty Number, though there will be commentary from Nathan Gold on the races too.

[Wells]

ATLASIA

House: This is an interesting one. I wondered how to translate models intended for two person races into STV races with ten candidates, and I eventually decided not to do that, instead opting for "strength scores" which are determined by a simple weighted formula. Here are the strength scores:

North Carolina Yankee (Federalist): 30
Leinad (Federalist): 28
Clyde1998 (Labor): 21
Simossad (Labor): 21
Peebs (Labor): 18
Santander (Conservative): 16
OneJ (Labor): 15
Pessimistic Antineutrino (Federalist): 15
drewmike87 (Labor): 12
CUTOFF
Dereich (Independent): 10

We can at this point project that North Carolina Yankee (Federalist) and Leinad (Federalist) will be elected to the House of Representatives.


FREMONT

Senator: Mike goes on about how great LLR is, so I guess he's okay. That Ted guy has some merits too. Who really cares anyway, Labor has four seats in the Senate and the Independent has a dark green avatar. Really.

Current Results: Ted Bessell 9 - LLR 8
Projected Final Results: Ted Bessell 52% - LLR 48%, +/- 12%
Odds of Winning: Ted Bessell 66%

House of Commons: Here comes the strength score!

RFayette: 18
Dr Novella: 15
Roy Barnes: 9
Anthony1691: 8
evergreen: 8
Tirnam: 8

The cutoff is after five, but the bottom three are tied, so we can't see exactly where it should be. We can at this point project that RFayette (Federalist) will be elected to the Fremont House of Commons.


LINCOLN

Senate: Only one candidate on the ballot? Is this North Korea? Good thing cinyc decided to run as a write-in.

Current Results: A. Scott 9 - cinyc 4
Projected Final Results: A. Scott 64% - cinyc 36%, +/- 13.4%
Odds of Winning: A. Scott 98%

We can at this point project that A. Scott (Labor) will be elected to the Senate.

Assembly: Blah blah strength scores.

CXSmith: 19
JGibson: 11
Lok1999: 11
kyc0705: 9
RGN08: 8
CUTOFF
Hoosier Nick: 4

We can at this point project that CXSmith (Labor) will be elected to the Lincoln Assembly.

[Wells]

ATLASIA

House:

North Carolina Yankee (Federalist): 60
Leinad (Federalist): 51
OneJ (Labor): 42
Peebs (Labor): 42
Clyde1998 (Labor): 36
Pessimistic Antineutrino (Federalist): 32
Santander (Conservative): 32
Dereich (Independent): 29
drewmike87 (Labor): 26
CUTOFF
Simossad (Labor): 22

We can at this point project that OneJ (Labor) and Peebs (Labor) will be elected to the House of Representatives.


FREMONT

Senator:

Current Results: LLR 16 - Ted Bessell 14
Projected Final Results: LLR 55% - Ted Bessell 45%, +/- 6%
Odds of Winning: LLR 80%

House of Commons:

Dr Novella: 26
Roy Barnes: 25
RFayette: 24
Tirnam: 17
evergreen: 14
CUTOFF
Anthony1691: 13
(Write In) Simfan: 4

We can at this point project that Roy Barnes (Labor) and Dr Novella (Labor) will be elected to the Fremont House of Commons.


LINCOLN

Senate:

Current Results: A. Scott 14 - (Write In) cinyc 4
Projected Final Results: A. Scott 71% - (Write In) cinyc 29%, +/- 9.2%
Odds of Winning: A. Scott >99%

Assembly:

CXSmith: 21
JGibson: 12
kyc0705: 11
Lok1999: 11
RGN08: 8
CUTOFF
Hoosier Nick: 4
(Wrote In) Maxwell: 2
(Write In) vote for pedro: 2