What on earth are people on about Le Pen?

[JasonDebenah89]

People in the news and on social media keep raving on about how she could be the next President but the way the French elections are set up and designed there is no way in hell she could become the next President.

Sure she may get the most votes the first round but the second round she'll be badly beaten by Macron at least 20 points.

What are people on about? It's not really a "competitive" election.

[Santander]

Hillary Clinton has a 98% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential Election.

There is no path to 270 electoral votes for Donald Trump

[Zioneer]

She has a chance... against Fillon or Melechon. But no one else.

[LLR]

Anything can happen - we don't even know who's going to be in the run-off. While I think it's unlikely, we've seen it happen many times these past months, so it wouldn't surprise me if she won.

[Figueira]

She would vaguely have a chance against Fillon or Melenchon, I guess.

[Mr. Smith]

Oh yes, she has a chance, an even better one against Macron than she would against Melenchon.

[Tender Branson]

She has a chance to win the 1st round, yes.

But absolutely no chance to win the runoff. If Hofer didn't win here, Le Pen will never win in France.

[Crumpets]

It would take a completely unforeseen change of events to make it happen. For example, the head of the French equivalent of the FBI saying he may or may not be opening an investigation into Macron just days before the runoff, or something like that.

[MAINEiac4434]

Oh yes, she has a chance, an even better one against Macron than she would against Melenchon.

The polls really, really, really do not seem to agree with you.

[kyc0705]

Hillary Clinton has a 98% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential Election.

There is no path to 270 electoral votes for Donald Trump

And Remain is totally going to sweep.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hillary Clinton has a 98% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential Election.

There is no path to 270 electoral votes for Donald Trump

Um No that was from a partisian liberal site, Nate Silver had hillary chances of winning at 67%

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hillary Clinton has a 98% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential Election.

There is no path to 270 electoral votes for Donald Trump

Um No that was from a partisian liberal site, Nate Silver had hillary chances of winning at 67%

Look, there is a blue wall in this country. Trump can't win the electoral vote. The only way to pierce it is through voter fraud.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Anything can happen - we don't even know who's going to be in the run-off. While I think it's unlikely, we've seen it happen many times these past months, so it wouldn't surprise me if she won.

Pretty much. It's quite possible that Fillon will beat out Macron for second place, for instance, in which case Le Pen would have an excellent chance of winning the runoff.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Anything can happen - we don't even know who's going to be in the run-off. While I think it's unlikely, we've seen it happen many times these past months, so it wouldn't surprise me if she won.

Pretty much. It's quite possible that Fillon will beat out Macron for second place, for instance, in which case Le Pen would have an excellent chance of winning the runoff.

Fillon still has a chance?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I think she could win, but the Trump comparison is a poor one. Clinton led in national polls, and in the end won the national vote. Macron consistently polls at 55% and above, far more than Clinton ever did.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You people do understand the difference between a 3-point difference in the polls and a 20-point difference, right?

[Mr. Smith]

Oh yes, she has a chance, an even better one against Macron than she would against Melenchon.

The polls really, really, really do not seem to agree with you.

Oh, it's not like Melenchon is gonna make it to Round 2 anyway.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Oh yes, she has a chance, an even better one against Macron than she would against Melenchon.

The polls really, really, really do not seem to agree with you.

Oh, it's not like Melenchon is gonna make it to Round 2 anyway.

[Meclazine for Israel]

She has a chance to win the 1st round, yes.

But absolutely no chance to win the runoff. If Hofer didn't win here, Le Pen will never win in France.

This is the way I understand it at present.

[Rjjr77]

Hillary Clinton has a 98% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential Election.

There is no path to 270 electoral votes for Donald Trump

Um No that was from a partisian liberal site, Nate Silver had hillary chances of winning at 67%

I like that others call CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, liberal sites now.

[Rjjr77]

People in the news and on social media keep raving on about how she could be the next President but the way the French elections are set up and designed there is no way in hell she could become the next President.

Sure she may get the most votes the first round but the second round she'll be badly beaten by Macron at least 20 points.

What are people on about? It's not really a "competitive" election.

You're forgetting the human effect. Ceteris Paribus you are correct, but let's say another terrorist attack occurs before the run off?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Sargon thinks Le Pen will win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sargon thinks Le Pen will win.

Who?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Sargon thinks Le Pen will win.

Who?

Sargon Of Akkad, popular Youtube "skeptic".

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sargon thinks Le Pen will win.

Who?

Sargon Of Akkad, popular Youtube "skeptic".

Oh so some crackpot nobody.