What on earth are people on about Le Pen?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Oh this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Benjamin

"His channel first drew attention to itself during the GamerGate controversy,[7] when he argued in one of his videos that members of the Digital Games Research Association (DiGRA) were actively plotting to influence video game development to conform to their "ideological feminist agenda"."

"However, the article in the The Daily Dot stated that even though Benjamin doesn't consider himself part of the alt-right, his videos concern "favourite alt-right targets" such as "feminism, Islam, Black Lives Matter, and the notion of straight white male privilege".[7] Mic described him as one of "YouTube's conservative firebrands" and a "right-wing pundit".[19] Vice also described Benjamin as a "right-wing commentator".[20]

Benjamin has opposed movements that purport to defeat online misogyny, such as the British group 'Reclaim the Internet', which he called "social communism".[4] He has expressed concern for the working class and the impact of immigration and neo-liberal policies from both the left and right. Benjamin was a vocal supporter of Brexit[21] and described Donald Trump as the "lesser of two evils" against Hillary Clinton."

"In May 2016, in response to Labour Party politician Jess Phillips' statement that rape threats are commonplace for her, Benjamin said "I wouldn't even rape you” in a YouTube video and repeated this on Twitter.[4][20] Benjamin declined to apologize for the comments,[4] saying he would never apologize for refusing to rape someone, and that it was offensive to ask him to do so."

[Maxwell]

At Trump's best, he was behind 2-3 points. At Le Pen's BEST, she's down 20.

I mean try putting what is currently happening - forget John Kasich endorsing Hillary, imagine Ted Cruz endorsing Hillary Clinton for President in 2016? Imagine the Republican Party in general falling behind Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump? Because, and apologies to the French posters for the cringey comparison, is what is happening in France - Francois Fillon, who ran his campaign as French Thatcher, endorsed Macron. Les Republicans, the generic right of center party in France, is backing Macron.

Context matters - Marine has done a lot to make her brand more mainstream, but the fact is her family's personal brand is still mostly reviled in France.

[Devout Centrist]

Sargon thinks Le Pen will win.

You mean noted unemployed social "critic" Carl Benjamin.

[Maxwell]

At Trump's best, he was behind 2-3 points. At Le Pen's BEST, she's down 20.

I question how meaningful this is, though—the topline numbers have Macron up big, but his support appears to be a lot less solid. Lot more potential for him to move downwards as some of those leaners (especially the Fillon voters) flip to Le Pen and undecideds make up their minds, while not so much for Le Pen to lose her base.

That's just a shocking amount to lose in, what, two weeks? I can understand the why of it but still.

to Macron's credit, we've all been expecting him to implode and he has yet to do so.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Oh this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Benjamin

"His channel first drew attention to itself during the GamerGate controversy,[7] when he argued in one of his videos that members of the Digital Games Research Association (DiGRA) were actively plotting to influence video game development to conform to their "ideological feminist agenda"."

"However, the article in the The Daily Dot stated that even though Benjamin doesn't consider himself part of the alt-right, his videos concern "favourite alt-right targets" such as "feminism, Islam, Black Lives Matter, and the notion of straight white male privilege".[7] Mic described him as one of "YouTube's conservative firebrands" and a "right-wing pundit".[19] Vice also described Benjamin as a "right-wing commentator".[20]

Benjamin has opposed movements that purport to defeat online misogyny, such as the British group 'Reclaim the Internet', which he called "social communism".[4] He has expressed concern for the working class and the impact of immigration and neo-liberal policies from both the left and right. Benjamin was a vocal supporter of Brexit[21] and described Donald Trump as the "lesser of two evils" against Hillary Clinton."

"In May 2016, in response to Labour Party politician Jess Phillips' statement that rape threats are commonplace for her, Benjamin said "I wouldn't even rape you” in a YouTube video and repeated this on Twitter.[4][20] Benjamin declined to apologize for the comments,[4] saying he would never apologize for refusing to rape someone, and that it was offensive to ask him to do so."

Sargon/Carl has degenerated into a Trump hack in much the same category as Dilbertman, a hardcore Trumpist who supports Trump because he thinks that he represents the final victory against feminism, Islam, and political correctness. At this stage, he's a true believer type who'll keep supporting Trump even if he has a major scandal or foreign policy disaster and ends up getting kicked out of office at Hollande/Park approval levels.

[they don't love you like i love you]

So far I have yet to hear an actual mathematics and vote based argument for a Le Pen victory, just "LOLZ TRUMP BREXIT" or that "one giant Midwest" thing.

Macron has over 24%. Hamon is at over 6% and all his voters should go to Macron. He just needs 20%...the same amount both Fillon and Melenchon pulled. Macron just needs half of those votes. How does that not happen?

[Associate Justice PiT]

Sargon occasionally is a good analyst, but he seems somewhat of a one track mind.

     He's a hardcore anti-establishment figure. I admire his defense of classical liberal values, and these motivated his support for Brexit. Thing is he then got behind Trump and Le Pen almost entirely on the strength of the opposition they represented to their respective political establishments, which I admittedly found a weak reason.

Sargon thinks Le Pen will win.

You mean noted unemployed social "critic" Carl Benjamin.

     Funny thing is he probably makes more money than anyone on the forum, except maybe a couple of the lawyers.

[Horus]

I don't think she'll win, but this will be a single digit victory for Macron. Those predicting a landslide have terrible short term memory.

[Xing]

Technically she has a chance, but it is very unlikely. There's a difference between leading by 4% in the polls (and that particular polling average was only 2% off) and leading by 25%. I think that there would have to be a monumental game changer for Le Pen to win.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I don't think she'll win, but this will be a single digit victory for Macron. Those predicting a landslide have terrible short term memory.

Yeah it's not like we didn't already have a vote closely matching the polls or anything!

[Horus]

I don't think she'll win, but this will be a single digit victory for Macron. Those predicting a landslide have terrible short term memory.

Yeah it's not like we didn't already have a vote closely matching the polls or anything!

You're underestimating true leftist stupidity. Le Pen might be a racist, but Macron worked for a bank. They view the latter to be fundamentally worse and will either vote Le Pen or stay home.

Macron wins, 54-46.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I don't think she'll win, but this will be a single digit victory for Macron. Those predicting a landslide have terrible short term memory.

Yeah it's not like we didn't already have a vote closely matching the polls or anything!

You're underestimating true leftist stupidity. Le Pen might be a racist, but Macron worked for a bank. They view the latter to be fundamentally worse and will either vote Le Pen or stay home.

Macron wins, 54-46.

Luckily, the vast majority of French voters are not teenagers on internet message boards trying to look edgy.

[Beet]

It's going to be close. Here is a 53-47 Macron victory based on how the 1st round supporters divide up:

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It's going to be close. Here is a 53-47 Macron victory based on how the 1st round supporters divide up:

LOL

Little do I know about France, but Melenchon should be 50-20. Fillon probably no less than 55-40. NDA is probably the only one you underestimated and what does he matter if it's 30-60, big whoop

[they don't love you like i love you]

[they don't love you like i love you]

So...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A few weeks on, I repeat myself

You people do understand the difference between a 3-point difference in the polls and a 20-point difference, right?

[they don't love you like i love you]

What's funny is the polls WERE off, just in Macron's favor.

[Antonio the Sixth]

hahahaha this thread