France 2017: Results Thread

[Mr. Smith]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

Trump wasn't supposed to win either.

[Umengus]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

NDA has nothing to lose. He was not going to be minister of Fillon or another UMP politician so his move is quite logical. For 24 hours, every medias speak about it.

[DL]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

Trump wasn't supposed to win either.

Trump was not 20 points behind Clinton one week before the election. He was always within striking distance of her in a way that LePen has never been

[Mr. Smith]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

Trump wasn't supposed to win either.

Trump was not 20 points behind Clinton one week before the election. He was always within striking distance of her in a way that LePen has never been

True, but counterpoint: Clinton was careful not to do anything too stupid to blow it, to a fault maybe...but the scales were tipping back and forth until Comeyghazi flipped it.

Macron on the other hand has blown his lead a bit, making all sorts of rookie mistakes against someone more seasoned.

[MAINEiac4434]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

Trump wasn't supposed to win either.

Trump was not 20 points behind Clinton one week before the election. He was always within striking distance of her in a way that LePen has never been

True, but counterpoint: Clinton was careful not to do anything too stupid to blow it, to a fault maybe...but the scales were tipping back and forth until Comeyghazi flipped it.

Macron on the other hand has blown his lead a bit, making all sorts of rookie mistakes against someone more seasoned.

And he's still up by around 20 points.

[Mr. Smith]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

Trump wasn't supposed to win either.

Trump was not 20 points behind Clinton one week before the election. He was always within striking distance of her in a way that LePen has never been

True, but counterpoint: Clinton was careful not to do anything too stupid to blow it, to a fault maybe...but the scales were tipping back and forth until Comeyghazi flipped it.

Macron on the other hand has blown his lead a bit, making all sorts of rookie mistakes against someone more seasoned.

And he's still up by around 20 points.

It's a high ceiling for sure, but we haven't gotten to the debate and there's still plenty of time for Le Pen to clean house and/or Macron continuously blow it. On the other hand Le Pen could fail to clean house and Macron could grow into things.

Given how 60% of these  recent far-rights vs everyone else have gone (Brexit/U.S./Iceland vs Austria and Netherlands), the former seems likely to happen than the latter.

[mvd10]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

Trump wasn't supposed to win either.

Trump was not 20 points behind Clinton one week before the election. He was always within striking distance of her in a way that LePen has never been

True, but counterpoint: Clinton was careful not to do anything too stupid to blow it, to a fault maybe...but the scales were tipping back and forth until Comeyghazi flipped it.

Macron on the other hand has blown his lead a bit, making all sorts of rookie mistakes against someone more seasoned.

And he's still up by around 20 points.

It's a high ceiling for sure, but we haven't gotten to the debate and there's still plenty of time for Le Pen to clean house and/or Macron continuously blow it. On the other hand Le Pen could fail to clean house and Macron could grow into things.

Given how 60% of these  recent far-rights vs everyone else have gone (Brexit/U.S./Iceland vs Austria and Netherlands), the former seems likely to happen than the latter.

The far-right didn't win the 2016 Icelandic parliamentary elections. Maybe you mean another country? Anyway, I still don't see how Le Pen wins this unless there is a major terror attack + a major Macron scandal/gaffe. Fillon was plagued by scandals, his program was rather unpopular but he never dropped below 53% against Le Pen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

[Devout Centrist]

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

The NF isn't going to be the same entity in five years. Infighting's gonna ensue after this, mark my words.

[Maxwell]

Wasn't Le Pen leading Flanby even before Flanby reached negative approval ratings? Granted, Flanby is Flanby, but Le Pen looked pretty scary when she was polling at 30% in the first round 3 years ago.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

The NF isn't going to be the same entity in five years. Infighting's gonna ensue after this, mark my words.

lol

[Mr. Smith]

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.

Well, Le Pen isn't going to win so he won't become Prime Minister and now everyone will associate him with the woefully unpopular Le Pen.

Trump wasn't supposed to win either.

Trump was not 20 points behind Clinton one week before the election. He was always within striking distance of her in a way that LePen has never been

True, but counterpoint: Clinton was careful not to do anything too stupid to blow it, to a fault maybe...but the scales were tipping back and forth until Comeyghazi flipped it.

Macron on the other hand has blown his lead a bit, making all sorts of rookie mistakes against someone more seasoned.

And he's still up by around 20 points.

It's a high ceiling for sure, but we haven't gotten to the debate and there's still plenty of time for Le Pen to clean house and/or Macron continuously blow it. On the other hand Le Pen could fail to clean house and Macron could grow into things.

Given how 60% of these  recent far-rights vs everyone else have gone (Brexit/U.S./Iceland vs Austria and Netherlands), the former seems likely to happen than the latter.

The far-right didn't win the 2016 Icelandic parliamentary elections. Maybe you mean another country? Anyway, I still don't see how Le Pen wins this unless there is a major terror attack + a major Macron scandal/gaffe. Fillon was plagued by scandals, his program was rather unpopular but he never dropped below 53% against Le Pen.

Fair enough, Iceland was a weird situation, and I didn't follow that one too closely. But I do remember the Centrist party got dumped, the Left as a whole faltered despite leading for most of the way, and the Right pulled through thanks to a splinter party [mixed up the reason for the splinter party to exist though].

I don't think she'll win it as things are, but I don't think it's gonna be a curb-stomper either.

[rob in cal]

  But more importantly, what endorsement decision has Lassalle reached?

[Zinneke]

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

The NF isn't going to be the same entity in five years. Infighting's gonna ensue after this, mark my words.

Infighting can ensue if it wants, history shows that, on a broader national level at least, whoever control the FN brand ends up subsisting, and at the same time can't reach power.

Just ask Bruno Mégret or the M.N.R

[Tirnam]

Borloo endorses Macron

And he seems quite enthusiastic: "I am betting on Emmanuel Macron, the bet of audacity, modernity, renewal and positive action" Macron is "a person who unites, defends an open and united world, transgressive, determined and courageous man".
Privately, a few weeks ago, he was said to be more critical of Macron.

Borloo says that he is ready to help for two or three years. A strong choice for prime minister.

[Former President tack50]

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

The NF isn't going to be the same entity in five years. Infighting's gonna ensue after this, mark my words.

Really? Which would be the sides and what would differentiate them? If Macron does poorly, the next election will be won by :

A: The FN
B: A very conservative candidate of the Republicans (kinda like Fillon but without the baggage). Closer to someone like Dupont-Aignan
C: Melenchon/Another far left candidate

Other than Marine being replace with her ¿niece? I can't see much infighting.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The sides will be the traditional Catholic wing led by Panzerbabby and the MLP/Philpot's wing of leftish rhetoric, no? (I won't use the word Strasserite, that would probably be trolling). I don't think it would rip the party up though as bad as what the PS will go through in the next few years, more like the weird turmoil between Fillon and Cope in the first year or so of the Hollande Presidency.

[kyc0705]

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

This is the thing most people are missing. If Le Pen loses, but still performs above her polling expectations, and Macron has a bad five years—economic stagnation, terrorism, or just inefficiency—2022 is going to be ugly.

[Zinneke]

The sides will be the traditional Catholic wing led by Panzerbabby and the MLP/Philpot's wing of leftish rhetoric, no? (I won't use the word Strasserite, that would probably be trolling). I don't think it would rip the party up though as bad as what the PS will go through in the next few years, more like the weird turmoil between Fillon and Cope in the first year or so of the Hollande Presidency.

I imagine Gollnisch and the JMLP remnant identify with neither. And so there is that wing in FN to consider.

[parochial boy]

On the flip side, Trump inspired mayhem and Brexit turning out to be a disaster could severely undermine the FN, and the far right across all of Europe.

[ApatheticAustrian]

someone has to reform france in some harsh ways, earlier or later and miss le pen can't be the only factor regarding such important questions.

[Devout Centrist]

Panzergirl is still probably going to lose, but God, if she breaks 45% this time, you can be sure 2022 will be her election to lose.

This is the thing most people are missing. If Le Pen loses, but still performs above her polling expectations, and Macron has a bad five years—economic stagnation, terrorism, or just inefficiency—2022 is going to be ugly.

2017 is a completely different world from 2012. Trying to predict what 2022 will be like is insane.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Since learning that Dupont would seemingly become PM under miss president, i looked into his stands a little bit....typical "anti-zionist" rhetoric.

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http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4955393,00.html

[RodPresident]

I can see MLP-NDA alliance as a kind of Cold War between the two. NDA wants to be a light version of MLP, the one who can win, while she wants to remain as main leader of far-right and exposed him in a "corrupt bargain" situation.

[Zinneke]

Since learning that Dupont would seemingly become PM under miss president, i looked into his stands a little bit....typical "anti-zionist" rhetoric.

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http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4955393,00.html

How is this anti-Zionist rhetoric? He is saying black on white Israelis have the same legitimacy to the land as the Arabs.
He is actually adhering to Gaullist principles for once...

And also, this has nothing to do with his alliance with Panzergirl, nor with the revisionism and anti-semitism of the more extremist elements of the FN in past years.