France 2017: Results Thread

[Tender Branson]

Macron wins the French abroad with 89-11.

I estimated it at 85-15 before the election.

[Tender Branson]

Fun side-fact:

Macron's winning margin over Le Pen (32.2%) was the same as Hillary's winning margin over Trump in Hawaii (32.2%).

CA for slightly closer (H+30%).

Vienna was VdB+31.4%.

[YL]

Several high profile Brexiters demonstrate yet again that they are terrible people:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/07/british-brexit-supporters-insult-emmanuel-macron-after-presidential-win

[parochial boy]

Paris went 89.7% Macron
Rennes went 88.4% Macron

Do any other big cities give him bigger numbers?

Also, it's quite interesting to compare round one and round two numbers - the correlation between a high left wing vote in the first round and a high second round vote for Le Pen looks surprisingly weak. In particular round the South West.

[adma]

As with the first round, I'd like to know the results (mapped, at least)by constituency.

[Tintrlvr]

Paris went 89.7% Macron
Rennes went 88.4% Macron

Do any other big cities give him bigger numbers?

Also, it's quite interesting to compare round one and round two numbers - the correlation between a high left wing vote in the first round and a high second round vote for Le Pen looks surprisingly weak. In particular round the South West.

Nantes: 86.52%
Bordeaux: 85.92%
Toulouse: 82.97%

Lyon was in the mid-to-high 80s Macron also, but would need to add up the arrondissements.

Also:

Strasbourg: 81.24%
Lille: 78.27%

So there wasn't an *enormous* regional variation in the big cities themselves. The exception obviously is Marseille, where Macron only managed about his national figure overall (but again would need to add up the arrondissements).

[parochial boy]

Paris went 89.7% Macron
Rennes went 88.4% Macron

Do any other big cities give him bigger numbers?

Also, it's quite interesting to compare round one and round two numbers - the correlation between a high left wing vote in the first round and a high second round vote for Le Pen looks surprisingly weak. In particular round the South West.

Nantes: 86.52%
Bordeaux: 85.92%
Toulouse: 82.97%

Lyon was in the mid-to-high 80s Macron also, but would need to add up the arrondissements.

Also:

Strasbourg: 81.24%
Lille: 78.27%

So there wasn't an *enormous* regional variation in the big cities themselves. The exception obviously is Marseille, where Macron only managed about his national figure overall (but again would need to add up the arrondissements).

I looked at a few more out of curiousity: Lyon in at 84.1%; Grenoble at 82.7%; Nancy at 81.4%; Metz at 72% Marseille at 64.4% and Nice at 60.4%.

So yeah, no huge variations city-to-city, with the stand out exception of the South East.

The South East big cities vote a lot like the regions that they are in; whereas the cities in North/East, the other FN stronghold, vote much more like big cities across the rest of country.

Rennes gave Hollande the best score of any big city last time; and Macron the second highest after Paris this time.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Paris went 89.7% Macron
Rennes went 88.4% Macron

Do any other big cities give him bigger numbers?

Also, it's quite interesting to compare round one and round two numbers - the correlation between a high left wing vote in the first round and a high second round vote for Le Pen looks surprisingly weak. In particular round the South West.

What sort of correlation were you expecting?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Le Pen couldn't even win New Caledonia. Glad to see her defeated though. Apparently Macron mentioned something about hoping that NC would stay French. There's a really bad cyclone there right now. I'd bet that will have a bit of pro-Stay effect.

[Tintrlvr]

Paris went 89.7% Macron
Rennes went 88.4% Macron

Do any other big cities give him bigger numbers?

Also, it's quite interesting to compare round one and round two numbers - the correlation between a high left wing vote in the first round and a high second round vote for Le Pen looks surprisingly weak. In particular round the South West.

Nantes: 86.52%
Bordeaux: 85.92%
Toulouse: 82.97%

Lyon was in the mid-to-high 80s Macron also, but would need to add up the arrondissements.

Also:

Strasbourg: 81.24%
Lille: 78.27%

So there wasn't an *enormous* regional variation in the big cities themselves. The exception obviously is Marseille, where Macron only managed about his national figure overall (but again would need to add up the arrondissements).

I looked at a few more out of curiousity: Lyon in at 84.1%; Grenoble at 82.7%; Nancy at 81.4%; Metz at 72% Marseille at 64.4% and Nice at 60.4%.

So yeah, no huge variations city-to-city, with the stand out exception of the South East.

The South East big cities vote a lot like the regions that they are in; whereas the cities in North/East, the other FN stronghold, vote much more like big cities across the rest of country.

Rennes gave Hollande the best score of any big city last time; and Macron the second highest after Paris this time.

Yes, it's striking that the urban-rural divide (or large cities-small cities divide) is much, much larger in the Northeast than in the Southeast. The Northeastern rural areas and small cities are much more FN-friendly than similar places in the Southeast, but the Northeastern urban areas are much less FN-friendly than similar places in the Southeast (though overall the cities are less FN-friendly than the countryside in both places). Also explains Aisne, which surprised a lot of people by being consistently the most FN-friendly department but is also a mostly rural northern department with no large urban area to counterbalance it (largest commune has a population of only about 55,000).

[DavidB.]

Yes, it's striking that the urban-rural divide (or large cities-small cities divide) is much, much larger in the Northeast than in the Southeast. The Northeastern rural areas and small cities are much more FN-friendly than similar places in the Southeast, but the Northeastern urban areas are much less FN-friendly than similar places in the Southeast (though overall the cities are less FN-friendly than the countryside in both places). Also explains Aisne, which surprised a lot of people by being consistently the most FN-friendly department but is also a mostly rural northern department with no large urban area to counterbalance it (largest commune has a population of only about 55,000).

Yeah, see also Haute-Marne, which went to Macron with a difference of less than 1000 votes (50.5-49.5). Macron won Chaumont and Langres, the two largest municipalities in the area, with about 65/35 (though it's worth noting that Macron actually won most of the rural southern part of the department as well, which presumably is better off).

[Antonio the Sixth]

This urban-rural gap is really striking. It's something we've never seen in France before.

[DavidB.]

Are there any figures on 2012 runoff vote vs. 2017 runoff vote?

[catographer]

Le Pen won only 2 departments ?

Not all that surprising considering her 2-1 loss France-wide, but still weird ...

French vote is much less geographically polarized than American election. For example, Clinton won CA by a 2-1 margin in the two-party vote, yet Trump won many counties.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are there any figures on 2012 runoff vote vs. 2017 runoff vote?

What kind of figures? You can find all the results online, yeah.

[catographer]

I compared the 2017 to 2002 elections where FN had a candidate in the runoff.

Chirac: 25,537,956
Le Pen: 5,525,032

Macron: 20,753,798
Le Pen: 10,644,118

Le Pen gained about 5 million between 2002-2017, Chirac/Macron lost about 5 million. Striking example of the low turnout as well, because France has about 5 million more people now (2017) than it did in 2002.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Sorry if this was already answered, but did Le Pen lose Vaucluse's 3rd constituency (her niece's constituency)?  I'm having a hard time eyeballing the map here.

[jaichind]

11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.

[Tintrlvr]

Sorry if this was already answered, but did Le Pen lose Vaucluse's 3rd constituency (her niece's constituency)?  I'm having a hard time eyeballing the map here.

No, Le Pen won Vaucluse-3 with 52.94% of the vote.

http://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/les-cartes-de-la-presidentielle/carte-presidentielle-les-45circonscriptions-ou-marine-le-pen-a-depasse-50-des-suffrages-au-second-tour_2181385.html

[RodPresident]

11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.

How many triangulaires and quadrangulaires are estimed for legislative elections? If turnout is high, we can have even quinquangulaires.

[Tintrlvr]

11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.

Probably reasonably close to a majority of those were Melenchon voters, though a fair number were probably Fillon voters as well, with some Hamon and Dupont-Aignan voters and of course a large portion of the people who voted for fringe candidates in the first round. Plus 2.57% cast blank or null ballots in the first round already.

[jaichind]

It seems that there is positive correlation between increase in abstention and first round combined Fillon/Melenchon vote.



But going against conventional wisdom there is negative correlation between first round combined Melenchon/Fillon vote and blank/invalid in the second round.

[jaichind]

11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.

How many triangulaires and quadrangulaires are estimed for legislative elections? If turnout is high, we can have even quinquangulaires.

It seems that in each seat it will be REM vs LR-UDI vs FN vs PG/FI vs PS-EELV vs DLF vs PCF

I thought that FN and DLF was going to have an alliance.  I guess not.  There might be some sort of possible alliance between PCF and PG/FI but that seems unlikely.

[Tender Branson]

Fun side-fact:

Macron's winning margin over Le Pen (32.2%) was the same as Hillary's winning margin over Trump in Hawaii (32.2%).

CA for slightly closer (H+30%).

Vienna was VdB+31.4%.

Where can I find the results by... precinct(?) for overseas voters?

I guess there was a link from an embassy somwhere in this thread which listed all the results for each country. You need to check the pages after round 1.

[parochial boy]

It seems that there is positive correlation between increase in abstention and first round combined Fillon/Melenchon vote.



But going against conventional wisdom there is negative correlation between first round combined Melenchon/Fillon vote and blank/invalid in the second round.

The Communes with the highest abstention (in Metropolitan France) were -

Vaulx-en-Velin - 43.2%
Behren-lès-Forbach - 41.6%
Gaillard - 40.6% (my neigbhbours )
Roubaix - 39.8%

All are working class Banlieues with big migrant populations; which are exactly the sort of places you would expect to have high abstention (as opposed to blank or nul votes).

I can see this would correlate to a high Mélenchon vote; and even to a relatively high Fillon one as these sorts of areas would hardly be expected to be Le Pen friendly. Gaillard gave Fillon 23% in the first round for example.