France 2017: Results Thread

[Barnes]

Well it looks like my American-level turnout projection will be proved wrong, thankfully!

[Barnes]

Well it looks like my American-level turnout projection will be proved wrong, thankfully!

That may be accurate for the runoff depending on who gets in

Well it's not really surprising that the turnout is improved, really. There was pretty considerable distaste with the candidates and the campaign leading voters to show they would abstain when they eventually bucked up and voted.

Not that I take any reading from turnout as a projection of results, but voter apathy is the rot that sets in on democracies.

[Barnes]

So for all the maddening medium-vacuum over the last three years, Le Pen increased her 2012 vote by just three points. As expected.

[Barnes]

But muh poll herding

That was such a joke. American polling sites need to stay out of European elections. 538 also though the UK 2015 election would see the birth of a six party system. Lol.

[Barnes]

But muh poll herding

That was such a joke. American polling sites need to stay out of European elections. 538 also though the UK 2015 election would see the birth of a six party system. Lol.

But what's the alternative explanation for why all the polls agreed so much, if not herding?  Polls agreeing with each other by much better than the margin of error says they should is highly suspicious, regardless of what methodology they're using.  That's not some clever Nate Silver punditry.  That's just basic math.

Well I am by no means a polling expert and I generally avoid the analysis associated with them, but from what I understand, French polling is much more accurate than American methods and even when they are wrong they are very much within a small margin of error; 2002 being the most obvious example which showed that error translate into a shocking upset.

[Barnes]

The legislatives will be much more interesting than the runoff, especially seeing how Hamon's 6% translates. I should expect LR to do reasonably well seeing as they got nearly 20% with their candidate under judicial investigation.

[Barnes]

LFA spokeswoman on France 2 claims Mélenchon can still make it through the big city vote. Of course that's bullsh*t.

Are the exit polls that precise? Only 2 points seperate the JLM and Le Pen in some exit polls.

This is not an exit poll. It's a projection based on actual votes which have already been counted.

[Barnes]

LFA spokeswoman on France 2 claims Mélenchon can still make it through the big city vote. Of course that's bullsh*t.

Are the exit polls that precise? Only 2 points seperate the JLM and Le Pen in some exit polls.

8pm projections are usually spot on.

The only time three people were included in the top two projection was 1995. If they're confident enough to just put up two, I would trust their projection.

[Barnes]

Second Round is going to be boring. Le Pen has no chance to be elected, the parliamentary elections are more interesting.

Anyone know when actual results will come in?

These are actual results...

[Barnes]

Just personally, a depressingly sad night for Hamon whom I was always impressed by, but four months ago I was sure that I would have to support Fillon with a closed nose, so there's a little hope.  

[Barnes]

I don't care. I'm so proud to be in the 6% who made the right choice. The 94% can go screw themselves.

"I don't care.  I'm proud to be in the 1% who made the right choice.  The 99% can go screw themselves." - every Jill Stein voter

This is a very stupid comparision. France had two-rounds voting system.

Yes. The downfall of the Jill Stein government from 2012 was terrible to watch.

[Barnes]

Yes, seeing as my mind was swirling with dystopian scenarios of Le Pen at over a quarter of the vote and Fillon entering the run-off, this isn't as bad as it may have been.

I really wish Montebourg would have won the primary so he could have got this crappy result. (God knows what would have happened if valls had won)

God, can you imagine if Valls had won...

In my opinion, if Hamon had scored 10% or more he would have become the natural leader of the PS's rebuilding effort, it that's possible. But with such a low result who knows...

[Barnes]

Who wants to see Sarko try to resurrect himself in time for June?

[Barnes]

wow. well i guess it makes some sense - considering Macron is already pretty right-wing.

More than ideology it goes down to the much vaunted but kind of blasé "Defence of Republican values" which is supposed to happen whenever the FN gets into a second round. Of course, the UMP/LR objectively ignores this whenever it suits them.

[Barnes]

In election after election across the West, the Left has collapsed and the Right has either collapsed or adapted itself to the Far-Right. Each election has shown the "new left" being composed of white collar and minority, neoliberal, globalists against working and middle class nationalists. This does not bode well for those of us who support a Left detached from neoliberalism.

If it helps, the left here in Spain went from around 35% to about 42% (PSOE dropped 5 points, but Podemos/IU tripled their share). Plus our voting patterns do not resemble what you say at all. (either that or everyone is part of the "new left")

The Iberian Peninsula really defies this overarching downfall of the left narrative. Portugal more than Spain but still.  

[Barnes]

Juppe also endorses Macron

Well he probably already voted for him.

[Barnes]

Perhaps keep the Grade E level #analysis about GLOBAL TRENDS elsewhere and concentrate on the actual thing happening now?

Oh but who even cares.

One can only hope.

[Barnes]

American political conversations please exeunt.

[Barnes]

Wallis and Futuna:

Macron: 30.5%
Fillon: 28.5%
Hamon: 25.2%
Le Pen: 7.1%
Mélenchon: 3.6%

[Barnes]

Nicholas Dupont-Aignan endorses...no one.
Will wait till his party gets together to tell them.

I thought his party was a personality cult? Am i wrong in assuming that?

Yeah, you are right, I was going to make a snide comment about that but I think given the carcrash thread its best to keep humour to the lowest.

On the contrary, that's the only thing that makes it bearable.

[Barnes]

Safe to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?

The polling? No. She was consistently in second place all this week.

Expectations? Well, most of the media outside of France crowned her la presidente several years ago...

[Barnes]

Safe to say that Le Pen underperformed tonight?

Yes. But at the same time I really think people overestimated her after regionals and especially the Europeans.

I think the real danger must be that the far left take up her mantle from the traditional working class back again.

Her hope is that French politics polarises around Macron and her.

But Marine might not last the internal feuding brewing up without an overperformance in the run-off.

I agree. The 2014/15 elections really skewed the expectations of some, in a similar way that people thought UKIP's first place showing in 2014 was a sure sign of a "breakthrough" in the general election.

[Barnes]

Me thinks it's time to lock, Hash. Please.

[Barnes]

Me thinks it's time to lock, Hash. Please.

How about instead we all stop and just discuss the election

Hard thing to ask, but c'est la vie.

[Barnes]

Important question: Do you guys think the primary system to select the candidates will be scrapped in the next election?

The 2 candidates chosen by primaries, LR and PS, were soundly defeated.

Well what happens to the PS in general is anyone's guess. But the Republicains had an enormous PR victory with the turnout on their primaries. Fillon used that pretty effectively to swat away calls for him to withdraw.