Where do you think 2018 will rank in the most unfavorable midterm rankings

[OSR stands with Israel]

for the party who controls the white house since 1982. Do this by how unfavorable the conditions were the party who controlled the white house by August of election year, not by how bad they actually lost

Here's my list:

Most Unfavorable:

1. 2010
2. 2006
3. 1994(yes this was the worst result by far but GOP ran a way better campaign in 1994 then GOP in 2010 or dems in 2006)
4. 2014
5. 2018(the map is more favorable for GOP then it was for the Dems in 2014)
6. 1982
7. 1986

(1-7 were all unfavorable midterms)
8. 1990
9. 1998
10. 2002

Most Favorable

[OSR stands with Israel]

Somewhere around number 3. Senate map is what's holding them back. And 30+ House seats at this point in time is a big stretch. They're fortunate that Trump is probably on track to be the most unpopular incumbent at midterm though.

I dont think 2018 will be as unfavorable as 1994. Remember by 1994 the south turned on the democratic party at the congressional level and the Senate Map that year was terrible for the dems that year.  That along with the facts that the Democrats controlled the house for 40 years resulted in a total disaster for the Democrats.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Around 3 I mean we are only near 100 days in an we could have a gov't shutdown an either another failed attempt at repealing O-care or a worse system in place

[Xing]

It'll be hard for it to rank particularly high, since the optics of the Senate will be favorable for Republicans even if they're having a very bad night. For 2018 to rival 2006 or 2010, I think Democrats would have to win the House, a majority of governships, and keep Republicans to a net gain of two Senate seats at the very most. Otherwise, it'll most likely rank around 5 or 6.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Hillary was President 2018 would likely be number one for two reasons

1. The Senate Map is so bad that 2014 would look good in comparison

2. Hillary is not popular and the dems would be on a 10 year itch

3. It would be GOP who would be enthusiastic


if Hillary won ( I believe that the gop would be at 2012 numbers in house and a 50-50 tie in senate after 2016) gop likely gains 20 seats in house and 10 in senate.


So instead of GOP having their 1958 they will get a repeat of 1982

[Virginiá]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-probably-wont-defy-midterm-gravity/

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[mencken]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-probably-wont-defy-midterm-gravity/

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Since when did Democrats win the 2012 House popular vote by 5.7%? I think they have their columns confused.

[Ridge]

I am thinking somewhere in the mid-twenties.

Sorry, not this year.

[Brittain33]

I am thinking somewhere in the mid-twenties.

Sorry, not this year.

What do you think is going to hurt Dem enthusiasm most—Trump's sky-high approval ratings, the completion of the wall with Mexico, or all the legislation he's gotten passed to "make America great again"?

[Hindsight was 2020]

The thing is I don't get why after 2010/2014 people could downplay Trump's bad approval ratings an how that will translate into a bad 2018. I have a theory because of the ABC poll that people are thinking "yeah Trump is hated dems are hated more so it evens out" which is a mistake Obama supporters made in 2018

[I Won - Get Over It]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-just-look-at-trumps-approval-rating-to-judge-his-first-100-days/

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