France 2002 : Who would win had Lionel Jospin been in the second round?
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  France 2002 : Who would win had Lionel Jospin been in the second round?		 « previous next »
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Question: France 2002 : Who would win had Lionel Jospin been in the second round?
#1
Jacques Chirac		  
#2
Lionel Jospin		  
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Total Voters: 53

Author Topic: France 2002 : Who would win had Lionel Jospin been in the second round?  (Read 3077 times)
UWS
Junior Chimp
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« on: April 23, 2017, 12:15:07 PM »
As French voters go to the polls today for the first round, let's remember that in 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen surprisingly edged Lionel Jospin to be qualified for the second round.

But who would have won if Lionel Jospin was qualified for the second round : Jacques Chirac or Lionel Jospin? And why?
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2017, 12:32:54 PM »
Jospin.
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UWS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2017, 12:44:59 PM »

Why?
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2017, 01:59:25 PM »

Because I'm a socialist.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2017, 02:31:16 PM »
I'm guessing Chirac would have won very narrowly.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2017, 07:59:58 AM »

"Who would win?" Not "Who would you vote for?"

Jospin, but not by too much.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #6 on: April 25, 2017, 08:01:23 AM »

Haha, I totally misread this.
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razze
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2017, 09:04:14 PM »
Why do you think he'd win though? I, for one, know nothing of the 2002 French political scene.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2017, 08:56:41 PM »
Quote from: razze on April 25, 2017, 09:04:14 PM
Why do you think he'd win though? I, for one, know nothing of the 2002 French political scene.

Granted that the first round was a big polling miss, but polling of the second round prior to the first round did generally have Jospin with a very slight edge in March-April 2002, though it was definitely a toss-up and some polls did have Chirac up, including later in the first round.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2002#Chirac.E2.80.93Jospin

That said, the combined Left and Far Left was about three points behind the combined Right and Far Right (counting Bayrou as neither left nor right, which is probably a slightly Jospin-favorable assumption), though Le Pen and Megret's voters were not, especially in 2002, guaranteed to swing behind Chirac in the runoff (whereas the various far-left parties already had a tradition of swinging behind the center-left in the runoff), and a fair number of Saint-Josse voters probably would have voted Jospin rather than Chirac in the runoff also.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2017, 07:44:08 AM »
Jospin would have probably narrowly won. Chirac was not a popular president, he's only remembered fondly now because his successors were even less popular (+Iraq).
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2019, 02:44:53 AM »
Polls showed that a Chirac-Jospin race would be close, & the same polls invariably predicted that Jopsin would do better in the first round than he actually ended up doing, so I'd have to argue that Chirac would be favored.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2020, 06:01:58 AM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on December 19, 2019, 02:44:53 AM
Polls showed that a Chirac-Jospin race would be close, & the same polls invariably predicted that Jopsin would do better in the first round than he actually ended up doing, so I'd have to argue that Chirac would be favored.

The thing is Jospin did so badly in 2002 more because there were so many leftwing candidates than anything.

Chirac was centrist enough that Bayrou wasn't going to be a serious threat and that just left Le Pen to the right.
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