Iowa 2016--- Precincts- Dubuque County

[NOVA Green]

Not sure if anyone has posted a link to this individuals research elsewhere, but just came across this link today from an individual who is extremely active in Democratic Politics as an operative in Iowa, who collaborated with another individual to provide mapping solutions, and basically rolls out precinct by precinct in Dubuque County, Iowa that in many ways helps explain the '16 GE PRES results in Iowa, much more effectively using real data to explain what happened in '16.

Regardless of anybody that has cross-linked to other boards, Iowa really deserves it's own thread, since although most of us on Atlas were expecting to narrowly vote Trump in '16, we weren't expecting the blowout there.

https://iowastartingline.com/2017/01/03/how-dubuque-county-went-republican-for-the-1st-time-since-eisenhower/

So at this point, I'll just post the link and let people comment, since there is a ton of data here that is transferable not only to other counties in Iowa, but also places in MN, IL, and WI, and I'm still trying to process some of the data such as the "German Catholic" vs "Irish Catholic" Dem WWC precincts of the City, and it definitely reinforces data regarding low voter turnout of Millennials, combined with high levels of 3rd Party support, etc....

Pretty cool read, and unfortunately we don't have that many posters from Iowa (Well we do have some with other State avatars) but still, I think this piece is at least a solid starting point to discuss Iowa '16 GE Pres results, compared to any other analysis or discussion that I have seen on Iowa on Atlas.

Thoughts?

[NOVA Green]

Unfortunately, apparently no individual is interested in Iowa Presidential Election results in 2020...

SAD....

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Unfortunately, apparently no individual is interested in Iowa Presidential Election results in 2020...

SAD....

where did you get that impression?

[NOVA Green]

Unfortunately, apparently no individual is interested in Iowa Presidential Election results in 2020...

SAD....

where did you get that impression?

Because nobody appears to have been interested in the most detailed breakdown at the level of Political Geography in perhaps one of the most pivotal Iowa Counties in the 2020 Pres GE?   

Hey--- this is a pretty awesome "Non Hack" breakdown of a key county in Iowa, that apparently no individual on the Forum has read (At least judging by the complete lack of posts), so naturally I assumed Atlas didn't care about Iowa, assuming it to be a non relevant factor in 2020, and tried to post my reply to myself with a Trumpist Twitter style feed.   

Now--- back to the point Dubuque County and what does that say about Iowa in 2020 Pres GE?

[ottermax]

Thanks for sharing this.

I think this analysis points out that while Trump did gain many votes in rural precincts and majority-white communities, the biggest cause of the election result was Clinton's vote LOSS. Especially in stronghold Democratic areas, voter turnout decreased and fewer Democrats voted.

Why was this? Did Democrats sense that Clinton was bound to win because of a perceived advantage? Did African-Americans lose interest without having a Black candidate? Did poor voters feel that they were not heard?

Clearly Democrats have a two-fold problem: declined turnout in traditional base voters (young, minorities, poor) and decreased support in white and rural communities that already were voting quite solidly Republican.

The only thing that I feel unites these groups is class. However Democrats seem set on attracting higher-income voters rather than lower income voters. 2018 will be an interesting test case in this... it seems that after GA-6 I'm not sure that high-income voters will ever switch over.