Sherrod Brown and Al Franken: who is more likely to run?

[Mr. Morden]

I am undecided on this.  I go back and forth.  Both of these guys are in the same category for me:  They would (IMHO) be strong candidates for the nomination if they were to actually run.  But neither have done much of anything to indicate interest, so they’re not in my top 15 list of people who are most likely to run.  Neither of them is anywhere close to dropping hints of presidential interest in the way that you’re getting from O’Malley, Booker, Gillibrand, etc.  I guess most likely scenario is that neither of them run.  But if one of them does end up running, is it more likely to be Brown or Franken?

The case for Brown running / against Franken running:

Franken has actually gone so far as to give a Shermanesque denial (though it’s early enough that I wouldn’t treat that as the final word….Brown’s also given a denial, but it wasn’t as airtight).  He shares a home state with Amy Klobuchar, who has in fact dropped some hints of presidential interest, and (even though he has a higher profile) she’s the senior Senator for the state, so he might defer to her.

Also, I’m not sure how it works now with the new MN presidential primary in 2020, but since his Senate seat is up in 2020, does he face Rand Paul-esque problems if he wants to run for Senate and president at the same time?  Not really an issue under the old caucus system, but with MN scrapping the caucus in favor of a presidential primary, I’m not sure what the new rules are.  And even if he’s allowed to run for both simultaneously, that might prove to be too politically complicated to pull off, so maybe he’d rather just run for reelection.

Finally, Brown faces reelection in 2018, in a state that Trump won easily.  So maybe Brown is interested in the presidency, but simply isn’t in a position to drop hints right now, because he’s got to put his focus on reelection (and will then switch gears once the midterms are over).

The case for Franken running / against Brown running:

Franken has a book coming out next month.  This could easily be an early launching pad for his 2020 campaign.  Also, the fact that Klobuchar shares a state with Franken and has dropped her own presidential hints might simply mean that Franken is being careful about showing his hand too early, rather than that Franken is not interested in the presidency.

Finally, Brown being up in 2018 in what’s become a tough state for Dems might box him in in various ways.  Maybe he’ll be pushed into making certain commitments towards the political center that would complicate his position in a Democratic presidential primary.  Maybe he’ll be asked to make a pledge to serve a full term, and will feel like he has to make that pledge (and then doesn’t want to flip-flop his way out of it afterwards).  Heck, maybe he'll even fail to win reelection, in which case any presidential hopes he might have are presumably dashed.

So what say you?

[badgate]

Not sure either would get past SC

[Lord Admirale]

Brown, Franken's Senate seat is up in 2020, Sherrod's is up in 2018. Even if he loses reelection, I still see him as being more likely to run for President.

[Dmitri Covasku]

I would say Al Franken.

[SCNCmod]

Not sure who will actually run... But I think Brown is far more electable.

[Shadows]

Franken. Would Brown want to go for this full blown Presidential campaign which will be very divisive taking shots against GOP & showing his progressive credentials etc? Ohio is a swing state with many pro-life & fiscally conservative voters, some of whose vote Brown gets.

I also think Brown faces a hard re-election campaign in Ohio whereas Franken is sure to win in MN. Franken is also the better orator, Brown is very bland. Being a good speaker is very under-rated. I think Brown is the better candidate for the GE, but Franken is more likely to run !

[MAINEiac4434]

Brown. Franken was Shermanesque in his denial immediately following the election.

[Mr. Morden]

Franken was Shermanesque in his denial immediately following the election.

So was Mark Warner, but he's already done some backpedaling on that:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5618014#msg5618014

I don't know.  Like I said, my guess is that neither of them run.  But I guess we'll find out more next month, when Franken's book comes out.  Surely he'll get the presidential question again (he'll most likely get it repeatedly) while he's doing his book promotion, and we'll see if he sticks by a Shermanesque refusal to consider it, or if he leaves some wiggle room.

[Bull Moose Base]

I'd guess Brown. I don't know that Franken would defer to Klobuchar but if seems fairly likely and if she's re-elected, I think she's very likely to run for president. If Brown is re-elected, he'll get buzz as a Sanders-esque progressive who has won Ohio three times. Midterms usually favor the out party. Trump's approvals are lower than any president ever at this point. It's early but I'd call Brown's chances at re-election >50/50 right now and Klobuchar's higher than his.