Which governor's seat is more likely to flip?

[Figueira]

Both have very unpopular incumbent governors who are not running again.

I would say Kansas, although I think both are more likely to flip than people here think.

[Virginiá]

Kansas, mainly because the midterm conditions are probably not going to be favorable by any measure to the GOP. I don't really know much about CT's woes, but it seems like Brownback has hurt the state GOP more.

[MT Treasurer]

KS, but not because of some inevitable big Democratic wave, but because CT voters are less likely to split their ticket and vote for a Republican, be they moderate or liberal or whatever. Malloy won in 2014, there's no reason to believe that a more electable Democrat would have a harder time winning in 2018 than he did. KS is in worse shape than CT, I believe, but of course Democrats won't have an easy time winning there against a serious, non-Brownback candidate either.

[Xing]

Kansas, narrowly, but both are underrated as pick-up opportunities for the other party.

[Suburbia]

Connecticut.

[Virginiá]

KS, but not because of some inevitable big Democratic wave

I'd hardly think a big wave, or any wave really, is needed right now. The party of the president almost always pays some sort of penalty in their midterms, and if Trump is in the 40s, it'd probably be larger than the average, which again doesn't necessarily mean a wave. This should in theory make it more difficult for a Republican to win CT and easier for a Democrat to win Kansas, in its current condition.

[Figueira]

Another thing to keep in mind is that Kathleen Sebelius won the 2002 Kansas gubernatorial election despite it being a Republican year overall.

[JoshPA]

Kansas, mainly because the midterm conditions are probably not going to be favorable by any measure to the GOP. I don't really know much about CT's woes, but it seems like Brownback has hurt the state GOP more.

Kansas ist going to for a democrat unless it blue dog and that not even likely.

[Fuzzy Bear]

CT, in that their electorate is more elastic.

KS used to have an elastic electorate, but not so much anymore.  The Republican that succeeds Brownback will trash him, but he/she will be a Republican nonetheless.

[smoltchanov]

Close, because both current governors are atrocious, but still Kansas.