Which state GOP is in better shape long-term-NY or NJ?

[Suburbia]

Which state Republican Party is in better shape long-term? The New York Republican Party or the New Jersey Republican Party?

[GlobeSoc]

New Jersey-way more suburban.

[Hindsight was 2020]

NY due to upstate

[Babeuf]

New Jersey for sure.

[BuckeyeNut]

Presently, York. Long term, probably Jersey.

[Hindsight was 2020]

NY due to upstate

GOP also holds the Senate here which allows them to repeatedly troll NYC taxpayers

In a NYer so I know

[KingSweden]

Presently, York. Long term, probably Jersey.

Agreed

[LabourJersey]

The Republicans will lose the governor's race in 2017, no question. But you can't possibly argue that the New York GOP is better off. I don't see a Republican winning the Gov elections there unless Anthony Weiner gets the Democratic nomination. However, if Trump loses in 2020 and Murphy/whoever has a bad first term, a Republican could possibly win, and there's always a good chance in 2025 as an open seat which are always competitive.

[Bojack Horseman]

I'd say NY...they do have the NY Senate.

[MAINEiac4434]

I'd say NY...they do have the NY Senate.

Only because of the Ignorant Deplorable Caucus.

[RRusso1982]

Why is it so impossible to elect a Republican governor of New York?  Maryland has a Republican governor.  Massachusetts has a Republican governor.  Both very popular governors too.  Why can't New York elect a Republican governor?

[RINO Tom]

Why is it so impossible to elect a Republican governor of New York?  Maryland has a Republican governor.  Massachusetts has a Republican governor.  Both very popular governors too.  Why can't New York elect a Republican governor?

I mean, I guess they "can" (and have), but New York City has been a Democratic bastion ... well ... since before the Civil War.  The dynamic has ALWAYS been a Republican Upstate battling a Democratic Downstate.  Problem is, Downstate is just so much more populated than Upstate now (13.7 million vs. 6 million), AND the GOP has lost ground in the Hudson Valley suburbs.  Even if they gained that ground back, the old path to victory wouldn't exist, and they'd need to swing some NYC voters or just get almost unbelievable margins in the suburbs and Upstate (or have ridiculously low turnout in NYC).

[Kingpoleon]

Why is it so impossible to elect a Republican governor of New York?  Maryland has a Republican governor.  Massachusetts has a Republican governor.  Both very popular governors too.  Why can't New York elect a Republican governor?

I mean, I guess they "can" (and have), but New York City has been a Democratic bastion ... well ... since before the Civil War.  The dynamic has ALWAYS been a Republican Upstate battling a Democratic Downstate.  Problem is, Downstate is just so much more populated than Upstate now (13.7 million vs. 6 million), AND the GOP has lost ground in the Hudson Valley suburbs.  Even if they gained that ground back, the old path to victory wouldn't exist, and they'd need to swing some NYC voters or just get almost unbelievable margins in the suburbs and Upstate (or have ridiculously low turnout in NYC).

1948, 1952, 1956, and somewhat even 1976 all wish to contest your second statement.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NY due to upstate

GOP also holds the Senate here which allows them to repeatedly troll NYC taxpayers

[Progressive]

New York GOP hands down. NY has many GOP Congress Members and controls the NYS Senate despite having max NYS Sen districts going for Hillary in '16.

In addition, MANY counties and town governments (rich with tax revenue and patronage jobs) are overwhelmingly controlled by GOP electeds such as Nassau County and the Town of Hempstead.

[Lord Admirale]

(accidentally voted for New York)

New Jersey. NYC outweighs most of upstate and suburban voters used to vote GOP until the party stopped caring about NJ. Not to mention, Menendez is vulnerable in 2018 despite Trump's presidency. Unless someone outprimaries him, we could see our first Republican Senator since the 70s.

[Technocracy Timmy]

NY due to upstate

GOP also holds the Senate here which allows them to repeatedly troll NYC taxpayers

What does this mean

[Tekken_Guy]

I'd say NY, even though it's usually the weaker GOP overall. It'll take a while for the NJ GOP to wash off the Christie stench.

[Don Vito Corleone]

NJ GOP for sure, the fact that 40% of the state lives in perhaps the most Liberal city in the country is simply too hard for the NY GOP to overcome without just waiting for incumbency fatigue to set in.

[Virginiá]

NJ GOP for sure, the fact that NYC is roughly 40% of the state lives in perhaps the most Liberal city in the country is simply too hard for the NY GOP to overcome without just waiting for incumbency fatigue to set in.

Is incumbency fatigue even really a thing at the state level? I mean, if a party mismanages a state's government/budget for too long and causes a lot of problems, I can see the party as a whole suffering for sure, but if a party has a strong grip on the state, generally they can have lackluster performance, perhaps even somewhat negative, and still hold on - even more so depending on how deep their voter base is in the state.

In a state like New York, I would imagine that it would take a perfect storm at this point for Republicans to win the Governor's office. Perhaps a strong candidate combined with a very good GOP year, mismanaged state govt causing long-term and palpable frustration among the voters.

[LabourJersey]

NJ GOP for sure, the fact that NYC is roughly 40% of the state lives in perhaps the most Liberal city in the country is simply too hard for the NY GOP to overcome without just waiting for incumbency fatigue to set in.

Is incumbency fatigue even really a thing at the state level? I mean, if a party mismanages a state's government/budget for too long and causes a lot of problems, I can see the party as a whole suffering for sure, but if a party has a strong grip on the state, generally they can have lackluster performance, perhaps even somewhat negative, and still hold on - even more so depending on how deep their voter base is in the state.

In a state like New York, I would imagine that it would take a perfect storm at this point for Republicans to win the Governor's office. Perhaps a strong candidate combined with a very good GOP year, mismanaged state govt causing long-term and palpable frustration among the voters.

I agree with you, Virginia-- I really doubt incumbency fatigue is a real factor in governor's races. In a state like NY, I don't think voters would ever get so sick of the Democrats that they would simply vote for the GOP just for the sake of change. I also think the openness of modern primaries helps counteract that, since people can just throw out the bums in the primaries and never bother to vote for the GOP, so any discontent with leadership is unlikely to actually effect who's in power.