Which state Democratic Party is in better shape long-term--KY or WV?

[Suburbia]

Which state Democratic Party is in better shape long-term--Kentucky or West Virginia?

[RINO Tom]

Assuming this means locally, easily WV.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

They have a higher floor in Kentucky but a higher ceiling in West Virginia.

[BuckeyeNut]

They have a higher floor in Kentucky but a higher ceiling in West Virginia.

So long as the ceiling clears 50%, I think I'd prefer a higher floor.

[Babeuf]

Having a Senator and a (just-elected) Governor has to count for something. They're both in pretty bad shape long-term but I'd put the WV Dems a bit ahead here.

[PAK Man]

From an outsider's perspective, it seems to me that as long as you're aggressively pro-coal in West Virginia, you'll win, regardless of what political party you belong to. Look at Justice; he won by a fairly respectable margin while Clinton got absolutely trounced in West Virginia; part of the reason she did so horribly was because it was perceived that she was anti-coal. I saw a mini-documentary on Facebook about a county in West Virginia that gave Trump his biggest victory in the primary season of any other county in the nation. When they interviewed the people who lived there, they all said Clinton was anti-coal, and that's why they didn't vote for her. One guy admitted he voted for Obama twice and was voting for Trump because he thought he'd bring the coal jobs back.

Again, this is coming from a complete outsider who has never set foot in West Virginia, but it seems to me that's what's happening here.

[VPH]

Kentucky. Where can they build a base from long term in WV? Morgantown? Charleston? In Kentucky, there's a better place to build up from if things keep going the way they are. Louisville, Lexington, and Frankfort have good potential.

[RINO Tom]

Not that past politics is that relevant or anything, but while both states have trended away from the Democrats, KY was never that loyal to begin with, at least not compared to WV.  As others have said, that has got to count for something.  West Virginia doesn't have areas like the Louisville and Cincinnati suburbs plus the ancestrally (super-)Republican areas in Eastern Kentucky that create such a large natural (historical) Republican voting bloc, even with semi-popular and moderate Democrats.  There are obviously exceptions in both states (Beshear in KY and Moore-Capito in WV), but generally Democrats have more potential voters in local races in WV, IMO.

[RINO Tom]

Kentucky. Where can they build a base from long term in WV? Morgantown? Charleston? In Kentucky, there's a better place to build up from if things keep going the way they are. Louisville, Lexington, and Frankfort have good potential.

The problem is, in Kentucky, all of those cities you named can be outvoted by the Republican margins in their suburbs and exurbs.  West Virginia Democrats still get a lot of support from rural voters.

[BuckeyeNut]

I stick with what I said earlier, but if the Cincinnati suburbs start liberalizing, KY GOP could be in some trouble.

[Fuzzy Bear]

They have a higher floor in Kentucky but a higher ceiling in West Virginia.

This is sort of what I think.

WV is newer to supporting the GOP, and it's not impossible that the GOP could sour the relationship by cutting SSI/SSD and all sorts of social net benefits that large numbers of West Virginians need.  Or if the GOP screws over the coal miners on a key issue.  I do think that the road back for WV Democrats is more likely to be found than for KY Democrats.

[BuckeyeNut]

Obviously WV because of the reasons RINO Tom mentioned. Also, the Republican trend in KY is arguably stronger than in WV, which explains why Bevin won and Cole lost.

And no, I don't see the Cincinnati suburbs becoming "more liberal". I know some people here think that all suburban areas are trending Democratic, but it's simply not the case. Even if it were to happen, Kentucky is that Republican that it wouldn't hurt the KY GOP much, especially if they continue to do extremely well in rural KY.

It's certainly a big if. The Indiana and Ohio portions of the Cinci suburbs haven't liberalized, but it isn't unthinkable. So long as the Democratic ceiling in Kentucky tops 50%--and it does, for now--a higher floor is better than a higher ceiling. And KY has a higher floor.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I stick with what I said earlier, but if the Cincinnati suburbs start liberalizing, KY GOP could be in some trouble.

I'm pretty sure Hillary won a precinct in Park Hills. My jaw hit the floor when I saw this.

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky has had some fine Democratic governors -- Beshear and Ford -- I'm surprised that Wendell Ford didn't run for President.