AL-SEN 2017: Who wins the GOP primary?

[I’m not Stu]

Luther Strange (incumbent)
Roy Moore
Ed Henry
Randy Brinson
someone who hasn't yet declared (specify which currently undeclared politician)

[Maxwell]

Luther Strange and Roy Moore probably head into a run-off, and Strange wins with 55% or more because  Moore might be too much even for Alabama Republicans.

At least that's my guess so far - Henry is too low name recog (probably ends up with 10-15% of the vote), and Moore probably beats out Brinson when it comes to the Christian Right (Moore at 30% or so, Brinson at 15% or so). Strange probably has a thick base of 40% - with other votes going to other candidates.

That's, of course, assuming the GOP field stays the way it is. It probably won't. I suspect a few more high rollers jump in - including, potentially, an establishment candidate that eats into Strange's vote total.

[I’m not Stu]

Luther Strange and Roy Moore probably head into a run-off, and Strange wins with 55% or more because  Moore might be too much even for Alabama Republicans.

At least that's my guess so far - Henry is too low name recog (probably ends up with 10-15% of the vote), and Moore probably beats out Brinson when it comes to the Christian Right (Moore at 30% or so, Brinson at 15% or so). Strange probably has a thick base of 40% - with other votes going to other candidates.

That's, of course, assuming the GOP field stays the way it is. It probably won't. I suspect a few more high rollers jump in - including, potentially, an establishment candidate that eats into Strange's vote total.

I think that is correct. Incumbents also generally have an advantage.