How does a Republican win New Jersey?

[Suburbia]

George H.W. Bush and Dan Quayle were the last Republican presidential ticket to win New Jersey--in 1988. It probably stopped being a swing state in 1992, but Bob Dole, George W. Bush and John McCain tried to pickup the state for the GOP. Donald Trump, recently in 2016, thought of winning N.J.--by adding New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to the ticket. Christie himself thought that N.J. could go for him as a Republican if he ran a successful presidential campaign in 2016, but that did not go well due to Christie's baggage.

How does a Republican win New Jersey in future presidential elections for the first time since 1988?

[TML]

The main reason NJ is solid D is because it is sandwiched in between two major cities - NYC and Philadelphia - which are Democratic strongholds themselves. Thus, most of NJ's residents commute to work in NYC or Philadelphia, or otherwise have close ties to those two cities. These people mostly vote D.

The two Republican governors of NJ in the last 20-25 years or so (Whitman and Christie) are both moderates. If they had been more conservative they would never have stood a chance.

[Young Moderate Republican]

Well, if 2016 is the beginning of a trend and not a fluke, then N.J. may slowly trend R as a result of the secularization and moderation of the GOP. I imagine a center-right candidate that took some of Trump's populist and socially liberal/moderate positions without Trump's serious personal flaws would make significant inroads there while taking N.H. and Maine as R leaning states in the process. This probably wont happen until 2032 though if ever. Maine and N.H. are much more likely in the short term and Connecticut, Rhode Island and maybe Delaware are probably better long term goals than N.J. simply because N.J. is a bit more diverse demographically.

[cvparty]

would be hard...




*** mod note: fixed first image tag (imgur doesn't work on this forum)

[mieastwick]

Look at the 2009 NJ gubernatorial map to see what it would take (note: yuge margins among college-educated Whites).
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=34&year=2009&f=0&off=5&elect=0

It's curious Trump actually did better than Christie in Salem and Cumberland counties.

[Kingpoleon]

Dark Red: >60% R
Red: >50% R
Light Red: >40% R
Dark Blue: >60% D
Blue: >50% D
Light Blue: >40% D

This is the 1997 gubernatorial map, in which the Republicans won by 1.05%, the narrowest Republican win statewide recently. 1993 was won by 1.04%, looks quite a bit different, but the way the counties voted in that election would make less sense than this one does.

[LabourJersey]

I think you guys might be missing the obvious--the state is only 57% non-hispanic White. When you have a robust population of AAs, Hispanics, and Asians, and a national Republican party that openly antagonizes them, the Democrats are going to win barring a landslide.

The main reason the state Republicans have been so successful is mostly because the state Democratic party is extraordinarily bad at forming coalitions in governing, mostly since the political landscape is run by county bosses who so often put their own petty rivalries ahead of the good of the state. If NJ had a typical Democratic organization, it would not lose so many gubernatorial elections.

[Suburbia]

I guess it is difficult now, since Guadagno and Hugin lost by double digits despite running mediocre campaigns.

I guess probably the 1997, 2009, and 2013 maps.  1985-style is not likely to happen, but it could if that Republican appeals to Hispanics.

[pppolitics]

Republican Party becomes an urban party

[completely dead account]

The GOP in NJ needs to be moderate, and the DNC candidate may need a large scandal. If Bob Menendez can still win in NJ even after being indicted, it'll be tough to bring someone down.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

If they model themselves after Clifford P. Case or Millicent Fenwick and run for Governor not the Senate.

[Pericles]

Menendez vs Hugin in a red wave environment may have been enough to do the trick, though a better candidate than Hugin may be necessary too.

[RINO Tom]

Republican Party becomes an urban party

Have they really ever been?  I'd argue never in their history, and they have one New Jersey before.

To answer the OP, not until Republicans are getting the same margins with White college grads and affluent Whites that Romney did but ALSO with minorities.  AKA, probably decades from now.

[mvd10]

Trump margins with the WWC (parts of NJ have some Trumpy tendencies), Romney margins with suburban college-educated whites and also a stronger showing with minorities. Probably only will happen if a popular culturally conservative (but secular) Republican president in the 2030s faces a gaffe-prone extremely progressive Democrat who only appeals to SF-style white progressives. And even then it's probably not going to happen, at that stage CT, RI, and Maine at large would be much better bets.

[darklordoftech]

By dropping the anti-hispanic dog whistles.

[Tekken_Guy]

They don’t until the national party abandons Trumpism. Even getting that 1997 map looks virtually impossible. Bergen is gone for the GOP and Somerset probably is too. And Passaic and Union aren’t voting Dem by such tiny margins.

[blacknwhiterose]

If Illinois could elect a Republican, New Jersey can do it.  Bruce Rauner won Illinois gubernatorial election in '14 by running as a reformer, took moderate positions on government spending, opposition to property tax raises, pro-business, did not talk about social issues.  Of course Pat Quinn was a lame duck, so it would probably require a similar candidate and similar circumstances for a Republican to win Jersey.

[RINO Tom]

If Illinois could elect a Republican, New Jersey can do it.  Bruce Rauner won Illinois gubernatorial election in '14 by running as a reformer, took moderate positions on government spending, opposition to property tax raises, pro-business, did not talk about social issues.  Of course Pat Quinn was a lame duck, so it would probably require a similar candidate and similar circumstances for a Republican to win Jersey.

I guess I assumed this was about federal elections, but yes: NJ will almost certainly elect a Republican governor some time in the next two decades in a similar situation to Maryland or Massachusetts.

[blacknwhiterose]

If Illinois could elect a Republican, New Jersey can do it.  Bruce Rauner won Illinois gubernatorial election in '14 by running as a reformer, took moderate positions on government spending, opposition to property tax raises, pro-business, did not talk about social issues.  Of course Pat Quinn was a lame duck, so it would probably require a similar candidate and similar circumstances for a Republican to win Jersey.

I guess I assumed this was about federal elections, but yes: NJ will almost certainly elect a Republican governor some time in the next two decades in a similar situation to Maryland or Massachusetts.

Oh I see.  On the Presidential level, I don't see a GOP candidate winning New Jersey in the current alignment of the two parties.