2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)
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Author Topic: 2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)  (Read 17990 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #175 on: May 30, 2017, 07:07:28 PM »
Any reason why the Tories have the most called seats so far?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #176 on: May 30, 2017, 07:08:18 PM »
Quote from: MAINEiac4434 on May 30, 2017, 07:02:34 PM
Grits SORT OF HOLD Hants-West.

Traditionally a Tory stronghold, Hants-West's incumbent MP Chuck Porter was elected as a Tory in 2013, but crossed the floor to the Liberals in 2014. It stays with Porter.

EDIT: Burrill has also taken the lead in Halifax-Chebucto.

EDIT 2: Victoria-The Lakes and Pictou East both called for the Tories.

EDIT 3: As is Clochester-Musquodoboit Valley.

Victoria--The Lakes is a gain, for the record. The wife of the federal MP is defeated.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #177 on: May 30, 2017, 07:08:34 PM »
Quote from: RogueBeaver on May 30, 2017, 07:07:28 PM
Any reason why the Tories have the most called seats so far?

They explained on the CBC TV.  Tories have large leads in ridings they're winning in.  This explains why they lead in the popular vote but trail in the seat count.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #178 on: May 30, 2017, 07:09:09 PM »
Quote from: RogueBeaver on May 30, 2017, 07:07:28 PM
Any reason why the Tories have the most called seats so far?

Some of their incumbents are racking enormous majorities. Hence their popular vote lead, too.
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MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #179 on: May 30, 2017, 07:10:29 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2017, 07:12:08 PM by MAINEiac4434 »
Quote from: DC Al Fine on May 30, 2017, 07:05:41 PM
Disgraced former councillor Brad Johns is up in Sackville-Beaverbank, and the Tories are up in Cape Breton-Richmond. Both VERY surprising.
The anti BJ (lol) vote is being split between the Grit and the Dip.

EDIT: Cowell and Maguire sent back.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #180 on: May 30, 2017, 07:10:54 PM »
Quote from: MaxQue on May 30, 2017, 07:09:09 PM
Quote from: RogueBeaver on May 30, 2017, 07:07:28 PM
Any reason why the Tories have the most called seats so far?

Some of their incumbents are racking enormous majorities. Hence their popular vote lead, too.

Hopefully the Liberal incumbent vote comes in. It's weird to see a borderline majority while the Tories are up in the popular vote.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #181 on: May 30, 2017, 07:14:33 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2017, 07:16:50 PM by MAINEiac4434 »
Despite looking good for the Tories early on, Bedford is held for the Grits.

EDIT: As is Annapolis (the Premier's seat) and Clare-Digby.

EDIT 2: Tories GAIN Queens-Shelburne from NDP.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #182 on: May 30, 2017, 07:16:43 PM »
Quote from: MAINEiac4434 on May 30, 2017, 07:14:33 PM
Despite looking good for the Tories early on, Bedford is held for the Grits.

EDIT: As is Annapolis (the Premier's seat) and Clare-Digby.

Preston-Dartmouth, too.
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Njall
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« Reply #183 on: May 30, 2017, 07:18:59 PM »
Chester-St. Margaret's keeps going back and forth between the Liberals and NDP, but there are only 9 more polls left there.
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MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #184 on: May 30, 2017, 07:19:27 PM »
Quote from: MaxQue on May 30, 2017, 07:16:43 PM
Quote from: MAINEiac4434 on May 30, 2017, 07:14:33 PM
Despite looking good for the Tories early on, Bedford is held for the Grits.

EDIT: As is Annapolis (the Premier's seat) and Clare-Digby.

Preston-Dartmouth, too.
Yeah. It's looking like the Grits will have anywhere from 23 to 26 seats with the NDP having as many as 10.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #185 on: May 30, 2017, 07:19:39 PM »
These are the competitive New Democrats
1.Denise Peterson-Rafuse
2.Liam Crouse
2.Lenore Zann
3.Joanne Hussey
4.David Wheeler
5.Gary Burrill
6.Glen Walton
7.Lisa Roberts
9.Trish Keeping
10.Dennis Kutchera
8.Dave Wilson
9.Trevor Sanipass (just one poll though)
10.Nancy Jakeman
11.Andre Cain
12.Susan Leblanc
13.Claudia Chender
14.Tammy Martin
15.Madonna Doucette
16.Devin Ashley
17.Marc Breaugh (Added)
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MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #186 on: May 30, 2017, 07:24:35 PM »
Weirdly, Baillie's seat hasn't been called yet.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #187 on: May 30, 2017, 07:25:04 PM »
NDP seems to be outperforming expectations. Also, popular vote is tied.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #188 on: May 30, 2017, 07:26:06 PM »
Liberals took the lead in popular vote.
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MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #189 on: May 30, 2017, 07:28:45 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2017, 07:31:19 PM by MAINEiac4434 »
Sackville-Cobiquard becomes the first NDP called seat.

At the same time, Grits hold Lunenburg West and the Tories hold Kings North & Cumberland North.

EDIT: NDP hold Halifax-Needham.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #190 on: May 30, 2017, 07:29:13 PM »
PC gain on LIB in Cumberland North.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #191 on: May 30, 2017, 07:34:35 PM »
Quote from: Adam T on May 30, 2017, 07:19:39 PM
These are the competitive New Democrats
1.Denise Peterson-Rafuse
2.Liam Crouse
2.Lenore Zann
3.Joanne Hussey
4.David Wheeler
5.Gary Burrill
6.Glen Walton
7.Lisa Roberts
9.Trish Keeping
10.Dennis Kutchera
8.Dave Wilson
9.Trevor Sanipass
10.Nancy Jakeman
9.Andre Cain
10.Susan Leblanc
11.Claudia Chender
12.Tammy Martin
13.Madonna Doucette
14.Devin Ashley
Marc Breaugh

This should be the final list of competitive New Democrats.  So, all in Halifax Metro, except for a couple 'legacy MLAs' and two in industrial Cape Breton.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #192 on: May 30, 2017, 07:35:07 PM »
Tories really overperforming in Cape Breton, underperforming in the rural mainland.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #193 on: May 30, 2017, 07:35:36 PM »
CTV & CBC call a Grit win.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #194 on: May 30, 2017, 07:35:45 PM »
Turnout is garbage, around 43%
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Njall
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« Reply #195 on: May 30, 2017, 07:37:15 PM »

What is the turnout in a NS provincial election, typically?
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #196 on: May 30, 2017, 07:37:36 PM »
Quote from: DC Al Fine on May 30, 2017, 07:35:07 PM
Tories really overperforming in Cape Breton, underperforming in the rural mainland.

Underperforming mainly in Anapolis Valley I think.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #197 on: May 30, 2017, 07:38:33 PM »
Quote from: Adam T on May 30, 2017, 07:37:36 PM
Quote from: DC Al Fine on May 30, 2017, 07:35:07 PM
Tories really overperforming in Cape Breton, underperforming in the rural mainland.

Underperforming mainly in Anapolis Valley I think.

It's down everywhere. CTV estimates 39% in Metro Halifax.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #198 on: May 30, 2017, 07:41:50 PM »
Quote from: DC Al Fine on May 30, 2017, 07:38:33 PM
Quote from: Adam T on May 30, 2017, 07:37:36 PM
Quote from: DC Al Fine on May 30, 2017, 07:35:07 PM
Tories really overperforming in Cape Breton, underperforming in the rural mainland.

Underperforming mainly in Anapolis Valley I think.

It's down everywhere. CTV estimates 39% in Metro Halifax.

Tory support or vote turnout?
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #199 on: May 30, 2017, 07:42:12 PM »
NDP gains back Cape Breton Centre, lost in a by-election to the Grits.
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