2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)

[DC Al Fine]

That's a 4 point drop in one night for the NDP! What's going on? Perhaps one good night of polling being knocked off and replaced by a lousy long weekend Saturday sample?

Last night of polling was Friday, so perhaps. I can't imagine may people picking up the Friday of a long weekend.

[136or142]

Actually it seems like everyone's riding polls are "junk" these days. Both Mainstreet and did a bunch of riding polls at the every end of the BC election and just about every single one of them was wildly off.

Mainstreet's have always been junk too. Nothing new there.

Riding polls are very hard to get right for a number of reasons.

Mainstreet's polls have actually been quite accurate for the last two years or so. Unlike Forum, Mainstreet clearly figured out what was wrong with their prior methodology.

[DC Al Fine]

North Shore

Antigonish
Centred around the university town of Antigonish, this riding has one of the highest concentrations of Catholics in the country. The riding has been represented by guys with funny names for a long time including Hyland, Tando, & Moe. Although the riding is a traditional Liberal seat, the Tories and NDP have held it in recent years. Given the recent relative Tory strength in the area, this is a potential pickup for the Tories.
Liberal-Tory tossup

Guysborough-Eastern Shore-Tracadie
The largest and least dense riding in the province, Guysborough-Eastern Shore-Tracadie has been a perfect bellwether since it's creation in 1988. Economically, the riding is poor, rural and focused on resource industries. The riding has become slightly less NDP friendly as parts of Antigonish County were added to it in the last redistribution.
Lean Liberal

Pictou Centre
Centred on the small towns of New Glasgow and Stellarton, Pictou Centre is an urban riding in a largely rural area. It is dominated by Empire Company, which owns several different grocery chains across Canada, Big 8 Bottling and operates its own REIT. Because of this, the area is fairly well off. Premier Jon Hamm held this seat in the 1990's and early 2000's. Historically Tory, the NDP managed to scrape out a win here in 2009, but lost it in 2013.  Incumbent MLA Patt Dunn won comfortably in 2013, and is running again.
Safe Tory

Pictou East
An almost entirely rural riding, the lobster industry dominates Pictou East. It was a mostly Tory seat in the past, but the NDP managed a close win in 2006 followed by a massive win (they went from 36% to 63%) in 2009. The riding then swung back to its ancestral roots in 2013. The Liberals are a nonfactor in Pictou County. Incumbent MLA Tim Houston is a possible leadership contender and faces no serious challengers.
Safe Tory

Pictou West
A largely rural farming riding, Scotsburn Dairy is the largest employer here. An historically Tory riding, it has drifted NDP over the years. The Tories barely won it in 1999 and lost it again in 2003, 2006 and 2009. The seat was a surprised pickup for the Tories in 2013 as popular MLA Charlie Parker went down in defeat. Although I expect the Tories to retain the seat, it has a pretty good NDP history for rural Atlantic Canada, so I can't quite call it safe. As noted above, the Liberals won't be a factor here. 
Lean Tory

[Hatman 🍁]

Premier Jon Hamm

Let's learn the difference, shall we?



Jon Hamm



John Hamm



I can recall in the past making the lame joke that John Hamm was starring in Madmen.

[DC Al Fine]

FFS, c'mon DC, get your head in the game

[adma]

Antigonish[/i]
Centred around the university town of Antigonish, this riding has one of the highest concentrations of Catholics in the country. The riding has been represented by guys with funny names for a long time including Hyland, Tando, & Moe.

Cue the inevitable "Nova Scotia Stooges" comment.

[136or142]

Premier Jon Hamm

Let's learn the difference, shall we?



Jon Hamm



John Hamm



I can recall in the past making the lame joke that John Hamm was starring in Madmen.

There is the similar difference between the t.v host and satirist Jon Stewart (not his real name) and the 70s and 80s folk and folk rock musician John Stewart.  John Stewart is mostly known for his early 80s hit song "Gold" that was backed by several members of Fleetwood Mac (Stevie Nicks does the background singing.)  Ironically enough, the bumper music on Coast to Coast that started playing several seconds after I started this post is a song by Fleetwood Mac.

The weekday host of Coast to Coast, George Noory, would day 'there are no coincidences', but George Noory is a moron.

[Lotuslander]

I haven't made up my mind yet, but I think I will vote Liberal. McNeil isn't pushing social liberalism like federal Liberals are, and I'm happy with his fiscal policies.

Would be myself as well in NS. You are lucky that ya reside in NS. NDP "church types" on here won't hassle ya. Haha. God forbid ya resided in BC.  One poster in the BC election thread stated that he would vote "Green". Immediately the poster "Hatman" ridiculed him as "neo-liberal". FFS. Intimidation on here that I have never seen before. Anyone who knows me... also knows that I have absolutely zero tolerance for both intimidation and that ideological bullsh**t.

Another ON NDP "church type" known as "adma" has absolutely no clue about BC politics. Yet continues to harangue me. Quite comical actually. Completely familiar with that "NDP church type" - anything anti-NDP is akin to blasphemy/heresy.

Moreover, this "adma" fella is not only into ignorant "trolling" but also into psychotic internet stalking. Never have experienced same in my entire life. Even my female spouse & li'l sis (well respected among their peers) have never seen anything akin to this "adma" fella on the 'net. Not only a complete and utter flake but quite "Creepy" as well.

Just a heads up.

[Hatman 🍁]

oh look guys, he's discovered that other provinces exist!

[DL]

The latest numbers from CRA are interesting:

Since this poll is a 5-day roll, it was a bit odd for the NDP to drop from 28% to 24% yesterday - especially when there was no corresponding change on "best premier"...but yesterday's poll covered May 15-19 which suggests that May 14 that was dropped was likely a very good day for the NDP and that May 19 was a very bad day...today's poll is from field work conducted May 16-20 and it has the Liberals down 2 points back to 40% and the PCs and NDP each picking up a point to 32% and 25% respectively.

What I find interesting is what's happening in the "best premier" numbers which can be a leading indicator for vote intention and which are now based on a field period that is about half before and half after the leader's debate on Thursday night. Keep in mind that all party leaders are lower on this measure than their parties are on vote intention because CRA doesn't allocate "undecided" the way they do with the vote question. MacNeil has drifted down to 30%, Burrill has continued his upwards climb to 23% (he was 17% as recently as a week ago) and Baillie is at a relatively low of 21%.

This suggests to me that Gary Burrill of the NDP did very well for himself in the leaders debate and that Baillie of the PCs is drifting down.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/nsvotes/1466845-daily-poll-may-22-burrill-pulls-ahead-of-baillie-in-personal-popularity-both-still-b

[DC Al Fine]

Cape Breton AKA God's Country
Cape Breton Island is the second largest region in Nova Scotia after Halifax. The entire island is poor. Cape Breton County, in the north eastern corner of the island is a decaying rust belt area, while the other three counties, Inverness, Richmond and Victoria are typical of rural poverty, but they are some of the most beautiful parts of the world in my (biased) opinion. The entire island has a peculiar accent which I can only describe Newfoundland-lite. Politics is extremely local here, even more so than the rest of Nova Scotia.

Cape Breton Centre
Cape Breton Centre is coal country. The town of New Waterford dominates this riding. The mines have closed, and the riding is impoverished, and the few non-poors seem to be unionized government workers. The NDP barely held on here in 2013 before losing the seat in a byelection. Normally I'd expect the new Liberal MLA to retain the seat, but the Liberals have faltered somewhat, and this is one of the very few parts of Atlantic Canada with a tribal NDP vote.
Lean NDP

Cape Breton-Richmond
Consists of the mostly Acadian Richmond county and southern Cape Breton County, this riding has mostly primary industries except for Point Tupper, which is centred around power generation for Nova Scotia Power. The riding tends to be culturally divided with Anglos voting Tory and Acadians voting Liberal. Michel Samson is the popular Liberal MLA and should hold the seat.
Safe Liberal

Glace Bay
Consists entirely of the Town of Glace Bay. Another depressed mining community, it has a fairly devout Catholic population and has tended to vote Liberal although the NDP won it several times. Former NDP leader Jeremy Akerman held the seat throughout the 1970's. Geooff MacLellan, a Liberal won over 80% of the vote in 2013 and is running again. 'Nuff said
Safe Liberal

Inverness
This rural riding has the Cape Breton Highlands and the Cabot Trail. It's seriously beautiful in the summer and tourism is a huge employer here. Inverness has an Acadian population around Cheticamp and what's left of Nova Scotia's Gaelic community. Allan MacMaster was in danger here in 2013, but now that he's won two elections and had time to put down roots, I think he should be pretty safe.
Safe Tory

Northside-Westmount
An urban riding centred around the Towns of North Sydney and Sydney Mines. There are some depressed mining areas but most of Cape Breton's moneyed folks live here as well. Current Sydney mayor Cecil Clarke represented this seat for the Tories for a long time, and the current MLA held off a strong Liberal challenge
Lean Tory

Sydney-Whitney Pier
The core of industrial Cape Breton, Sydney-Whitney Pier is a former steel town. Whitney Pier is is quite multi-cultural hosting a variety of Eastern Europeans. Similar to Cape Breton Centre, the NDP barely held on to this seat in 2013, before losing it in a by-election. Although it has some tribal NDP areas, it is somewhat more Liberal leaning than Cape Breton Centre, due to it also hosting some of the better off parts of industrial Cape Breton. I have no idea how this one will end.
Liberal-NDP tossup.

Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg
Consists of the middle class suburb of Sydney River with the heavily touristy areas of the Mira and Lousibourg. Louisbourg is an interesting historical site built when the French still owned Nova Scotia. The Tories aren't well liked here, but local Tory MLA Alfie MacLeod sure is.
Lean Tory

Victoria-The Lakes
A rural area with settlements centred around the Bras d'Or lakes. It has a large Mikmaq population and some Acadians as well. The economy is based around tourism with some mining. This race features a rematch between incumbent Liberal Pam Eyking, wife of Sydney-Victoria MP Mark Eyking, and former Tory MLA Keith Bain. The Eykings have deep roots in the community but, but Bain was also popular as MLA and the Tories are polling above their 2013 result
Liberal-Tory tossup

[DC Al Fine]

The latest numbers from CRA are interesting:

Since this poll is a 5-day roll, it was a bit odd for the NDP to drop from 28% to 24% yesterday - especially when there was no corresponding change on "best premier"...but yesterday's poll covered May 15-19 which suggests that May 14 that was dropped was likely a very good day for the NDP and that May 19 was a very bad day...today's poll is from field work conducted May 16-20 and it has the Liberals down 2 points back to 40% and the PCs and NDP each picking up a point to 32% and 25% respectively.

What I find interesting is what's happening in the "best premier" numbers which can be a leading indicator for vote intention and which are now based on a field period that is about half before and half after the leader's debate on Thursday night. Keep in mind that all party leaders are lower on this measure than their parties are on vote intention because CRA doesn't allocate "undecided" the way they do with the vote question. MacNeil has drifted down to 30%, Burrill has continued his upwards climb to 23% (he was 17% as recently as a week ago) and Baillie is at a relatively low of 21%.

This suggests to me that Gary Burrill of the NDP did very well for himself in the leaders debate and that Baillie of the PCs is drifting down.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/nsvotes/1466845-daily-poll-may-22-burrill-pulls-ahead-of-baillie-in-personal-popularity-both-still-b

Possibly, but to looking at the graph, it just looks like bouncing around the margin of error for the past couple of weeks to my eyes.

[DC Al Fine]

Green leader Thomas Trappenberg is doing a targeted campaign, attempting to replicate BC, NB and PEI Green success.

I drive through Trappenberg's target riding (Clayton Park West) on my way to work every day. They are certainly targeting the seat. Their sign game is the best I've ever seen out of a Green campaign. On the other hand, I seriously doubt the Greens will win a seat because:

a) The party is poorly organized. They are running nowhere near a full slate after only putting out 15 candidates or so in 2013. I doubt they can pull the resources necessary for a targeted approach.

b) Clayton Park West isn't a good choice for a Green target. Halifax doesn't really have any ideal Green type seats, but Clayton Park West isn't that great a choice even among the slim pickings Halifax has to offer. It's too rich, has too many immigrants, and has very few bobos. I get that the seat is open, and that some of the seats with better demographics (e.g. Halifax Needham, Chebucto, or Citadel) have incumbent MLA's, but I'm still surprised they didn't pick Dartmouth South. It has no incumbent, and much of the riding is considered hipster central.

[DL]

Possibly, but to looking at the graph, it just looks like bouncing around the margin of error for the past couple of weeks to my eyes.

You can say that for the party support numbers, but on "best Premier" chart, Burrill has been on a pretty clear upwards trajectory

[Hatman 🍁]

Green leader Thomas Trappenberg is doing a targeted campaign, attempting to replicate BC, NB and PEI Green success.

I drive through Trappenberg's target riding (Clayton Park West) on my way to work every day. They are certainly targeting the seat. Their sign game is the best I've ever seen out of a Green campaign. On the other hand, I seriously doubt the Greens will win a seat because:

a) The party is poorly organized. They are running nowhere near a full slate after only putting out 15 candidates or so in 2013. I doubt they can pull the resources necessary for a targeted approach.

b) Clayton Park West isn't a good choice for a Green target. Halifax doesn't really have any ideal Green type seats, but Clayton Park West isn't that great a choice even among the slim pickings Halifax has to offer. It's too rich, has too many immigrants, and has very few bobos. I get that the seat is open, and that some of the seats with better demographics (e.g. Halifax Needham, Chebucto, or Citadel) have incumbent MLA's, but I'm still surprised they didn't pick Dartmouth South. It has no incumbent, and much of the riding is considered hipster central.

Judging by the federal results, the best areas for the Greens (albeit not by much) do appear to be in the Clayton Park area.

[DC Al Fine]

Possibly, but to looking at the graph, it just looks like bouncing around the margin of error for the past couple of weeks to my eyes.

You can say that for the party support numbers, but on "best Premier" chart, Burrill has been on a pretty clear upwards trajectory

Is that some sort of leading indicator?

Green leader Thomas Trappenberg is doing a targeted campaign, attempting to replicate BC, NB and PEI Green success.

I drive through Trappenberg's target riding (Clayton Park West) on my way to work every day. They are certainly targeting the seat. Their sign game is the best I've ever seen out of a Green campaign. On the other hand, I seriously doubt the Greens will win a seat because:

a) The party is poorly organized. They are running nowhere near a full slate after only putting out 15 candidates or so in 2013. I doubt they can pull the resources necessary for a targeted approach.

b) Clayton Park West isn't a good choice for a Green target. Halifax doesn't really have any ideal Green type seats, but Clayton Park West isn't that great a choice even among the slim pickings Halifax has to offer. It's too rich, has too many immigrants, and has very few bobos. I get that the seat is open, and that some of the seats with better demographics (e.g. Halifax Needham, Chebucto, or Citadel) have incumbent MLA's, but I'm still surprised they didn't pick Dartmouth South. It has no incumbent, and much of the riding is considered hipster central.

Judging by the federal results, the best areas for the Greens (albeit not by much) do appear to be in the Clayton Park area.

You're right. I hadn't thought of that.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm going to make a prediction thread in a couple of days. I won't bother taking predictions for popular vote and seat winners since those are foregone conclusions. Any suggestions for ridings to predict/you find interesting?

[DC Al Fine]

Daily CRA poll stable

Liberal: 40%
Tory: 31%
NDP: 25%

[the506]

The federal Green candidate there in 2015 was Richard Zurawski, a well known TV and radio meteorologist in the Maritimes. Wonder if the name recognition bumped his numbers up a bit.

Looking at the poll results though, he didn't do particularly better in CP or Fairview than the usual Green-friendly areas like downtown Halifax or east end Dartmouth.

[Krago]

The federal Green candidate there in 2015 was Richard Zurawski, a well known TV and radio meteorologist in the Maritimes. Wonder if the name recognition bumped his numbers up a bit.

Looking at the poll results though, he didn't do particularly better in CP or Fairview than the usual Green-friendly areas like downtown Halifax or east end Dartmouth.

I remember an Windsor NDP friend in 1987 touting Mr. Zurawski as an Ontario provincial candidate against Bill Wrye in Windsor-Sandwich.  If he had stuck around, he could have been a cabinet minister!

[adma]

I haven't made up my mind yet, but I think I will vote Liberal. McNeil isn't pushing social liberalism like federal Liberals are, and I'm happy with his fiscal policies.

Would be myself as well in NS. You are lucky that ya reside in NS. NDP "church types" on here won't hassle ya. Haha.

Actually, the reason why they don't hassle DC Al Fine, RogueBeaver and other such "board Cons" is that said board-Cons act civilly and don't engage in sophomoric-blowhard ad hominem slurs against your dreaded, uh, NDP "church types".  Ergo, no hassle--Voltairean respect is earned.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

***Full stop.  Freeze frame.***

Yes, I know that what I'm about to say is probably familiar to the thread-migrating-egalitarian Canadian participants in this forum.  But you're *constantly* offering this party line that only *you* know BC politics because you live there and breathe it and are not looking at things through granola-coloured NDP-church glasses.  However, in the BC election prediction thread, you predicted this:

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Instead, it turned out to be a Lib-NDP near-tie in share and seats.

This, folks, is the person who chides people for having "absolutely no clue about BC politics".  And looky here; he, the self-proclaimed expert, flopped in his prediction.  ***He blew his self-styled credibility.***

And he's not acknowledging it.  Instead he's ignoring it, like it never happened, and he's doubling down on his NDP-Church insults, just like a Trump follower reacts to being proven wrong by liberally lobbing "Libtard" insults.

(And given how the NDP's lately seen power in NS and remains a viable electoral force, don't think that the so-called NDP Churchers wouldn't be interested or present in this thread, either.)

[DC Al Fine]

Very little change today

Liberal: 40%
Tory: 32%
NDP: 25%

[Terry the Fat Shark]

JS Can you guys stop fighting on every thread/post you come across? This is Nova Scotia not British Columbia

[DC Al Fine]

JS Can you guys stop fighting on every thread/post you come across? This is Nova Scotia not British Columbia

[Zanas]

Is there a significant number of Francophones in NS ? Do they call it Nova Scotia or Nouvelle-Écosse ? And do they tend to vote in some discernible pattern ?