2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC calls it.

[MaxQue]

Guysborough-Eastern Shore-Tracadie is a Liberal hold by 71 votes over PC.

[MaxQue]

Liberal hold in Colchester North by 439 votes. Only 6 seats left to call (3 lib, 1 PC, 2 NDP).

[Boston Bread]

Eric Grenier's prediction was reasonably close: 27-20-4

Although he was lucky in using primarily the accurate Forum poll instead of CRA, which overestimated the Liberal lead.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC/status/869539329718321152/photo/1

[MaxQue]

Cole Harbour-Portland Valley is a Liberal hold by 380 votes over PC.

[MaxQue]

NDP gain in Dartmouth North by 325 votes.

[MaxQue]

Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank is a Liberal hold, by 66 votes over PC.

[MaxQue]

Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage is an PC gain over Lib by 97 votes.

[MaxQue]

Glace Bay is an Liberal hold by 378 votes. Surprisingly close.

[MaxQue]

Liberal best: Yarmouth (68%)
Worst: Pictou West (16%)
PC best: Pictou East (74%)
Worst: Halifax Chebucto (11%)
NDP best: Halifax Needham (52%)
Worst: Yarmouth (3%)
Best Green: Dartmouth East (8%)
Worst: Pictou West (2%)

NDP hold in Dartmouth South by 178 votes over Liberals.

[MaxQue]

Atlantica Party:
Best: Cumberland South 2.2
Worst: Kings North 0.9

[Badger]

So I was reading up on Nova Scotia Black Canadians last night. Any Black Canadian MLA's getting elected? Maybe from the the Preston area?

[136or142]

So I was reading up on Nova Scotia Black Canadians last night. Any Black Canadian MLA's getting elected? Maybe from the the Preston area?

1.Tony Ince, Liberal, who defeated Darrell Dexter in Cole Harbour-Portland Valley in 2013 was reelected.

2.Claudia Chender, NDP, won in Dartmouth South that Miriam Mancini took for the NDP from the Liberals in the 2015 byelection. (Miriam Mancini decided she didn't like electoral politics.)

[DC Al Fine]

So I was reading up on Nova Scotia Black Canadians last night. Any Black Canadian MLA's getting elected? Maybe from the the Preston area?

1.Tony Ince, Liberal, who defeated Darrell Dexter in Cole Harbour-Portland Valley in 2013 was reelected.

2.Claudia Chender, NDP, won in Dartmouth South that Miriam Mancini took for the NDP from the Liberals in the 2015 byelection. (Miriam Mancini decided she didn't like electoral politics.)

To follow up on that, Preston is notorious for being a seat designed to elect black MLA's... which almost always elects a white MLA

[DC Al Fine]

Obligatory map

[Hatman 🍁]

Seeing Cape Breton so blue is really throwing me off. Looks like the Tories did better there (49%) then they even did in 2006 (43%) when their leader was from there.

[DC Al Fine]

Seeing Cape Breton so blue is really throwing me off. Looks like the Tories did better there (49%) then they even did in 2006 (43%) when their leader was from there.

Agreed, especially when you consider how well the Liberals did there federally in 2015.

[lilTommy]

While the NDP won the same number of seats from 2013, 7, it's a big shift in where those are:
Losing Queens-Shelboure, Chester-St. Margarets and Sydney-Whitney Pier (they lost during the by-election anyway)
But gained in HRM; Halifax-Chebucto, Dartmouth North and Dartmouth South (by-election gain)
Also, in-polling had them doing much better then the 21% they ended up with.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice that the NDP took back one of the CB seats anyway.

[Hatman 🍁]

[136or142]

The final vote totals suggest that all of the final polls were pretty decent though the CRA poll had the P.Cs a fair bit too low.  The most accurate would be to combine the Forum and the Mainstreet poll.

In their press release, either CRA or Mainstreet wrote that they had to choose a turnout model (obviously) and that their polling indicated that P.C voters had more enthusiasm for the election than Liberal voters did, so they wrote that the P.Cs could do better in the election than their final poll indicated. This turned out t be the case, and the lesser enthusiasm from Liberal voters I think was also reflected in the slightly lower turnout from 2013.

Interestingly, the turnout in, at least, the 2015 byelections in Cape Breton was not that much lower than the turnout in the general election.

Of course, the votes from Nova Scotians living in British Columbia won't be counted for two more weeks.

[136or142]

Regional vote breakdown.

Halifax Regional Municipality
Total votes: 154,079, 20 seats
Liberal: 63,051, 40.9%, 12 seats
P.C: 41,030, 26.6%, 3
NDP: 42,592, 27.6% 5
Greens: 7,406, 4.8% (The Greens ran a full slate in HRM)

Cape Breton
Total votes: 63,672, 8 seats
Liberal: 20,786, 32.6%, 2 seats
P.C: 31,276, 49.1% 5
NDP: 11,208, 17.6% 1

'Mainland' Nova Scotia (The rest of the province)
Total Votes: 181,013, 23 seats
Liberal: 73,704, 40.7%, 13 seats
P.C: 70,366, 38.9%, 9
NDP: 31,589, 17.5%, 1

[DC Al Fine]

Tory vote needs to get more efficient. Pictou East isn't any more won at 70% of the vote as it is at 50%

[DC Al Fine]

Here's the NDP trend (individual swings relative to provincial swing)


Nothing too unusual. The NDP collapsed in areas that they lost in 2013 and had no NDP tradition, and did well in the urban and inner suburban areas of Halifax. The only thing that's throwing me is how well they did in Digby and Annapolis counties, although that could just be a fluke (going from 10 to 15% of the vote might not be anything meaningful).

The NDP need to do well in Halifax's outer suburbs to be competitive, and those were a mixed bag.

[DC Al Fine]

And here is the Tory trend map



Main things to note: Very positive results in the northern mainland and Cape Breton. There was notable underperformance on the South Shore. In Halifax, it was largely what you would expect, with the Tories doing well in the outer suburbs and poorly in urban areas and inner suburbs.