2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)

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Mainstreet: http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-lead-campaign-begins/

Province wide Decided/Leaning:
Liberal - 42%
PC - 29%
NDP - 25%

HRM
Liberal - 39%
NDP - 31%
PC - 29%

The Halifax numbers are a huge regional trend if true. The last time the Tories did so well, they were in government, not a distant second.

Keep in mind though Premier McNeil is from the Annapolis Valley Region (6 ridings, with the Liberals holding five) and many people in the Nova Scotia regions seem to like voting for a party with a leader from their region.  I would  remind you that in the normally Liberal Cape Breton when Rodney MacDonald was P.C Leader in 2006 and went on to win a minority government, the P.Cs gained two seats in the Cape Breton region (of the then 9 ridings. That only gave the P.Cs four ridings on Cape Breton, but historically, Cape Breton had been a wasteland for them, in 1999, for instance, Rodney MacDonald was the only P.C elected on Cape Breton.)

Presently the Liberals hold 5 of 8 Cape Breton ridings, and if they hold the 5 seats in Annapolis, they should be well on their way to getting reelected with a majority government.

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I find this interesting, but not sure what to make of it. Outside of NDP leader Gary Burrill himself (who doesn't really have a choice but to run) not a single NDP MLA defeated in 2013 is running in this election.

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Prediction: the Liberals form government again, with the Tories as official opposition. The NDP is almost level with the Tories on raw votes, but FPTP screws them over and they end up with like four seats.

The NDP's 26% in this election (if that's what they end up with) would almost certainly be much more concentrated than the 26% they received in the last election.  There are people here who know Nova Scotia better than I do, but I'd guess the NDP support will be mostly concentrated in Central Halifax, Dartmouth/Cole Harbour and maybe Pictou County/Central Nova.

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A brand new poll by Forum Research suggests it's very close:

Liberals 37%
PCs 35%
NDP 25%

And they have Halifax a three way dead heat!

Forum polls are junk polls.

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Actually it seems like everyone's riding polls are "junk" these days. Both Mainstreet and did a bunch of riding polls at the every end of the BC election and just about every single one of them was wildly off.

Mainstreet's have always been junk too. Nothing new there.

Riding polls are very hard to get right for a number of reasons.

Mainstreet's polls have actually been quite accurate for the last two years or so. Unlike Forum, Mainstreet clearly figured out what was wrong with their prior methodology.

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Premier Jon Hamm

Let's learn the difference, shall we?



Jon Hamm



John Hamm



I can recall in the past making the lame joke that John Hamm was starring in Madmen.

There is the similar difference between the t.v host and satirist Jon Stewart (not his real name) and the 70s and 80s folk and folk rock musician John Stewart.  John Stewart is mostly known for his early 80s hit song "Gold" that was backed by several members of Fleetwood Mac (Stevie Nicks does the background singing.)  Ironically enough, the bumper music on Coast to Coast that started playing several seconds after I started this post is a song by Fleetwood Mac.

The weekday host of Coast to Coast, George Noory, would day 'there are no coincidences', but George Noory is a moron.

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Burrill is canvassing in his own seat two days before the election. Make if that what you will.

Isn't there an incumbent Liberal in the riding?

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Burrill is canvassing in his own seat two days before the election. Make if that what you will.

Isn't there an incumbent Liberal in the riding?

Yes, but he's had a scandal and the riding is a very, very good match for Burrill's style of Dipper. It should have been an easy pickup in my opinion.

I was a bit confused because the only MLA with a major scandal I knew about was Andrew Younger.  Stroink's scandal sounds like the sort of thing to me that the media and a few 'social justice warriors' play up but the vast majority of the public couldn't care less about.

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Anybody know of any radio stations that will be broadcasting the election coverage? Maybe the CBC.

Edit, here: http://www.cbc.ca/listen/live/radio1/halifax

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZM6nVtJr5G4 livestream of CBC Nova Scotia live coverage

Thanks.  I didn't know youtube did live steaming.  They really do have the internet on computers now.

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First riding, NDP lead.

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Dropped NDP candidate Bill McEwen has 7 votes from the first poll reporting.

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Burrill down in Chebucto

I was trying to remember why this sounded familiar to me.

Down goes Burrill! Down Goes Burrill! (Down goes Frazier!, Down goes Frazier!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZEIMQ42-oU

I thought it was Frazier-Ali, not Frazier-Foreman.

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Hoping for a PC-NDP coalition

PC-NDP-Green

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P.Cs are kicking butt all over Cape Breton.

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Error in reporting on CBC TV
Lenore Zann 2,018
P.C 70
Liberal 59

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These are the competitive New Democrats
1.Denise Peterson-Rafuse
2.Liam Crouse
3.Lenore Zann
4.Joanne Hussey
5.David Wheeler
6.Gary Burrill
7.Glen Walton
8.Lisa Roberts
9.Trish Keeping
10.Dennis Kutchera
11.Dave Wilson
12.Trevor Sanipass (just one poll though)
13.Nancy Jakeman
14.Andre Cain
15.Susan Leblanc
16.Claudia Chender
17.Tammy Martin
18.Madonna Doucette
18.Devin Ashley

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Any reason why the Tories have the most called seats so far?

They explained on the CBC TV.  Tories have large leads in ridings they're winning in.  This explains why they lead in the popular vote but trail in the seat count.

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These are the competitive New Democrats
1.Denise Peterson-Rafuse
2.Liam Crouse
2.Lenore Zann
3.Joanne Hussey
4.David Wheeler
5.Gary Burrill
6.Glen Walton
7.Lisa Roberts
9.Trish Keeping
10.Dennis Kutchera
8.Dave Wilson
9.Trevor Sanipass (just one poll though)
10.Nancy Jakeman
11.Andre Cain
12.Susan Leblanc
13.Claudia Chender
14.Tammy Martin
15.Madonna Doucette
16.Devin Ashley
17.Marc Breaugh (Added)

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These are the competitive New Democrats
1.Denise Peterson-Rafuse
2.Liam Crouse
2.Lenore Zann
3.Joanne Hussey
4.David Wheeler
5.Gary Burrill
6.Glen Walton
7.Lisa Roberts
9.Trish Keeping
10.Dennis Kutchera
8.Dave Wilson
9.Trevor Sanipass
10.Nancy Jakeman
9.Andre Cain
10.Susan Leblanc
11.Claudia Chender
12.Tammy Martin
13.Madonna Doucette
14.Devin Ashley
Marc Breaugh

This should be the final list of competitive New Democrats.  So, all in Halifax Metro, except for a couple 'legacy MLAs' and two in industrial Cape Breton.

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Tories really overperforming in Cape Breton, underperforming in the rural mainland.

Underperforming mainly in Anapolis Valley I think.

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Tories really overperforming in Cape Breton, underperforming in the rural mainland.

Underperforming mainly in Anapolis Valley I think.

It's down everywhere. CTV estimates 39% in Metro Halifax.

Tory support or vote turnout?

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These are the NDP candidates who are likely to end up receiving 25-30% of the vote.  
1.Henderson Paris
2.John Davis
3.Linda Moxsom-Skinner
4.Rana Zaman
5.Nancy Jakeman
6.Shelley Fashan
7.Devin Ashley
8.Trish Keeping
9.Stephen Schneider
10.Marc Breaugh
11.Shawn McNamara
12.Dennis Kutchera
13.Moraig McGillveray

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So I guess it's safe to say that the Grits underperformed their polling numbers.

Looks like NDP also under-performed their poll numbers.  I guess it did not impact their seat count as much since LIB also under-performed.  

Oh good grief.  The final Forum poll looks like it will be most accurate.

Liberal: 38%
P.C: 35
NDP 23

It's like I've always said, Forum polls are the (cough)best(cough) polls.

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Apparently a large amount of advanced polls are still to be counted, so that would explain why turnout is so low right now and could move the Liberals to a narrow majority government.

Liberals could still win these ridings
1.Cape Breton-Richmond
2.Chester-St. Margaret's
3.Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage
4.Guysborough-Eastern Shore-Tracadie
5.Sydney-Whitney Pier
6.Waveley-Fall River-Beaver Bank