2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)

[Hatman 🍁]

Why is Glace Bay so liberal?

It's not. People vote for the candidate in Cape Breton more than the party.

[Hatman 🍁]

These are great, DC. Keep it up!

Of course, riding names are one of those nerdy things that interest me. The riding has been called "Halifax Needham" (Chebucto too) since the 60s, so I guess they'll never bother to change it.

Halifax Citadel-Sable Island is ridiculously named, since there isn't even a polling booth on Sable Island (and in fact the 2016 census shows a population of 0, going to update this on Wikipedia). Reminds me of the new name of the Leeds-Grenville riding which was named "Leeds-Grenville-Rideau Lakes and the Thousand Islands" for tourist reasons. *throws up*

[Hatman 🍁]

Starting to look like the 1998 election now in terms of polling, except with the Liberals doing better and the NDP doing worse. But I suspect the vote patterns will be similar, if everything holds.

[Hatman 🍁]

the race is stabilizing. Last two CRA polls show:

(Change from last election)
Lib: 42 (-4)
PC: 30 (+4)
NDP: 25 (-2)

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's CRA poll:

Liberal: 42%
Tory: 28%
NDP: 26%

Now it looks like it will be a race for who will be official opposition. Considering that the PC leader has already led his party through an election and has been leader of the opposition for the last four years...I'm surprised that the PCs are this close to falling back into third place behind the NDP led by a neophyte like Burrell

Remember, last election the NDP actually finished 2nd in the popular vote, but third in seat totals, so those numbers aren't that promising.

[Hatman 🍁]

And my wife has just told me it's time to take her to the hospital to have the baby. Have fun watching the debate guys.

Congrats.

If you're looking for good Tory names, may I suggest:

(girls)
Reagan
Margaret
Ronalee
Kim
Elizabeth

(boys)
Stephen
Ronald
Donald
George
David (Jr?)

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum's riding polls are junk, but not necessarily their provincial polls (though, they are often suspect). JP's concern over the Green crosstabs in Cape Breton being one example of this - though I doubt very many polling companies would geocode their questions so that only ridings that are running Green candidates would have that option listed.

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually it seems like everyone's riding polls are "junk" these days. Both Mainstreet and did a bunch of riding polls at the every end of the BC election and just about every single one of them was wildly off.

Mainstreet's have always been junk too. Nothing new there.

Riding polls are very hard to get right for a number of reasons.

[Hatman 🍁]

A brand new poll by Forum Research suggests it's very close:

Liberals 37%
PCs 35%
NDP 25%

And they have Halifax a three way dead heat!

Forum polls are junk polls.

They can't even get the names of the cross tab regions right. They included the Annapolis Valley as part of 'South Shore', which is like calling Ottawa part of Northern Ontario, and they also called the rural northern mainland of the province 'North End' which is a neighborhood in Halifax.

I'm pretty sure I've seen Ottawa grouped with Northern Ontario before 🤢

I think with provincial crosstabs, you have no choice to put the south shore and Annapolis Valley together, but you shouldn't call it just the south shore.

[Hatman 🍁]

That's a 4 point drop in one night for the NDP! What's going on? Perhaps one good night of polling being knocked off and replaced by a lousy long weekend Saturday sample?

[Hatman 🍁]

Premier Jon Hamm

Let's learn the difference, shall we?



Jon Hamm



John Hamm



I can recall in the past making the lame joke that John Hamm was starring in Madmen.

[Hatman 🍁]

oh look guys, he's discovered that other provinces exist!

[Hatman 🍁]

Green leader Thomas Trappenberg is doing a targeted campaign, attempting to replicate BC, NB and PEI Green success.

I drive through Trappenberg's target riding (Clayton Park West) on my way to work every day. They are certainly targeting the seat. Their sign game is the best I've ever seen out of a Green campaign. On the other hand, I seriously doubt the Greens will win a seat because:

a) The party is poorly organized. They are running nowhere near a full slate after only putting out 15 candidates or so in 2013. I doubt they can pull the resources necessary for a targeted approach.

b) Clayton Park West isn't a good choice for a Green target. Halifax doesn't really have any ideal Green type seats, but Clayton Park West isn't that great a choice even among the slim pickings Halifax has to offer. It's too rich, has too many immigrants, and has very few bobos. I get that the seat is open, and that some of the seats with better demographics (e.g. Halifax Needham, Chebucto, or Citadel) have incumbent MLA's, but I'm still surprised they didn't pick Dartmouth South. It has no incumbent, and much of the riding is considered hipster central.

Judging by the federal results, the best areas for the Greens (albeit not by much) do appear to be in the Clayton Park area.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are Acadian pockets across the province (read DC's excellent riding synopses). They tend to vote Liberal, but support other parties if they have popular incumbents.

[Hatman 🍁]

Judging by the poll by poll results, Blacks in Preston don't appear to vote NDP. Looks like they've voted Liberal the last couple of elections, though there are NDP pockets in the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Judging by the poll by poll results, Blacks in Preston don't appear to vote NDP. Looks like they've voted Liberal the last couple of elections, though there are NDP pockets in the riding.

Yes and no.

You're right that Preston is not nearly as pro-NDP as I said it is, but you're also vastly overestimating the size of Preston. Take a look at the 2013 poll by poll map for Preston on 506's website Do you see the three NDP polls that voted 70%+ NDP? That's North Preston. There's another three or four polls to the south that voted the same as the riding at large. That's East Preston. Everything to the east and west of that is white exurbs.

That's why Preston was always the biggest joke of the special seats and had such a hard time electing black MLA's. Nova Scotia Acadians aren't nearly as spread out as blacks are, and the main majority black area is pretty small.

Right. I find the area fascinating... what's the difference between North and East Preston? They seem to vote differently. In 2009 it appears North Preston voted Tory? Weird. And the NDP candidate was in single digits. One of the few areas in the province that swung NDP, and by a huge amount it seems. I guess they are a voting bloc that votes more for the candidate than party.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, NDP support has collapsed in Halifax, but not in the rest of the province? Not sure if buy that.

[Hatman 🍁]

One of us ... one of us ... one of us ...

He's supporting them because they're the most right wing party in the election.

(Actually, that might explain why the PCs are doing better than expected in Halifax?)

[Hatman 🍁]

Hoping for a PC-NDP coalition

[Hatman 🍁]

Tory vote efficiency is buggering them.

Burrill elected.

Woohoo!

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals have one pickup, Chester-St. Margaret's, not declared yet.

Not anymore.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP hold in Truro-Something-Something Else-Again

It's interesting to see the NDP carve out rural fiefdoms like the Tories and Liberals.

Does Truro count as rural??

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals are now ahead in Sydney-Whitney Pier

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hatman 🍁]

I know, but I'm sad to see another dipper lose. How did the Liberals win Chester-St. Margaret's anyways? It was a 3-way race last time, and they haven't won the seat since the 1990s. It should've gone PC if not NDP.