FL-27: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen to retire from Congress

[Suburbia]

IRL's compassion for transgendered people was only matched by her zealously rabid defense of Israel.

She is a centrist Latina, in the mold of Susana Martinez. A Martinez/Ros-Lehtinen ticket would be groundbreaking for the GOP, but it never was fulfilled.

[Gass3268]

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[Hindsight was 2020]

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Oh well fun while it lasted

[TheSaint250]

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That could make the seat relatively competitive

[Young Conservative]

Well that's not good.  That district is now going to be very competitive.

Very Competitive???  No.   FL-27 voted 59-39 Clinton.    This should be one of the easiest districts in the whole country for Dems to flip without IRL,  especially with Trump in the White House.

Similar logic: "west Virginia? It voted for Romney by over 26 points! It'll never vote a democrat for governor!"

This will still be a competitive race. Aside, the Congresswoman is hardly a loss for conservatism. She's more liberal than a lot of Democrats.

[Maxwell]

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Oh well fun while it lasted

CLC was a flop during his Senate run. I'm willing to take my chances.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Lean D.

[Gass3268]

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Oh well fun while it lasted

CLC was a flop during his Senate run. I'm willing to take my chances.

Also Rubio lost this district last year.

[ajc0918]

This probably also kills Scott Fuhrman's chances of winning the primary, since this will open the floodgates for first tier Democrat candidates to jump in.

JJR's Senate seat isn't up till 2020. Hard to see why he wouldn't make the jump. Still no more than tilt D, though.

Didn't Florida recent pass a resign to run law for federal offices?

[Vosem]

IRL's compassion for transgendered people was only matched by her zealously rabid defense of Israel.

What every Congressman should strive for

And, yeah, considering this district narrowly voted for Murphy over Rubio, voted for Hillary by 20 points (rather more than the 15-point margin by which Trump won MN-1), reduced IRL to her first single-digit win in 2016 since the 1980s, is increasingly becoming other kinds of Hispanic besides Cuban, and will be fought in a Trump midterm...it's really hard to see Republicans holding this. Likely D, maybe, to take into account the strength of the Dade machine, but even they can't work miracles.

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Crist/ATG carried this seat against Scott/CLC by 7 points in the 2014 environment, which doesn't make me optimistic. But CLC has a long background in local politics here, and held down a pretty unfavorable state House seat in Miami in the 2000s-era. We could definitely do worse.

[136or142]

If there are any big fans of Ileana Ros-Lehtinen here, I remember when she first ran in the Special election that got her into the House, the then McNeil Lehrer News Hour did a fairly lengthy report on that election campaign.

I don't know if it's available, but anybody interested could search for it.

[SATW]

A sad day for the GOP and SoFLA. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is one of the greatest public servants in the history of Florida.


I wish her well in retirement and thank her for decades of amazing service.

[Virginiá]

This probably also kills Scott Fuhrman's chances of winning the primary, since this will open the floodgates for first tier Democrat candidates to jump in.

JJR's Senate seat isn't up till 2020. Hard to see why he wouldn't make the jump. Still no more than tilt D, though.

Didn't Florida recent pass a resign to run law for federal offices?

Unless it was very recent, I don't think so.

http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=0000-0099/0099/Sections/0099.012.html

Edit: Nope. I see what you mean though. Caldwell proposed, but it still hasn't made it out of committee:

https://www.myfloridahouse.gov/Sections/Bills/billsdetail.aspx?BillId=59604

[Skye]

Noooooooooo.

D+1.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

IRL's compassion for transgendered people was only matched by her zealously rabid defense of Israel.

And Cuba firsters.

[BuckeyeNut]

D+1

[ajc0918]

It will be interesting to see how FL-27 and FL-26 vote in 2018. I would not be surprised to see both flip although I always thought IRL would hold on. There's definitely a shift happening with Hispanic(Cuban) voters in South Florida.

[KingSweden]

Whoa!

Still rating this Tossup for now

[Skill and Chance]

This is basically the reverse of TN-08 or TN-06 in 2010 when Tanner and Gordon retired.  The opposite party's landslide margin at the top of the ballot eventually swamps a longstanding local political machine.  

[136or142]

This isnt' the PBS story, but it's still some decent history
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeC0ZwuB4e0

[DrScholl]

This seat is gone for Republicans.

[Vosem]

So who's going to run in this seat for the Democrats? Annette Taddeo was their candidate here in 2008, when she was crushed by IRL, and she lost the neighboring FL-26 primary in 2016 (even though she lives in this district) even though she was strongly supported by the DCCC. That's someone the Democrats have been wanting to promote for a long time, and this race would be very logical for her. Another very logical name would be state Senator Jose Javier Rodriguez, who represents most of this area in the state Senate, and narrowly knocked off the incumbent Republican by 3 points in 2016 (say what you will about Trump's success nationwide, or even in Florida, the predicted Democratic wave did hit here). IRL's 2016 opponent, who came fairly close, Scott Fuhrman, is already running, but he was a first-time candidate in 2016 and he's not Hispanic, so he's not likely to be a primary winner.

Any other obvious possibilities?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This has gone from likely R to tilt D all of a sudden. Overall this is a lean D district, and the only reason that the GOP holds it is because you have a moderate Cuban-American woman representing it. I would say it is lean D in 2018, but as people have said, the GOP is still a relevant fighting force in Miami, and I don't think they will let this one go without a fight. Still, nearly everything else is going for the democrats here, so I will have to rate it as a slight tilt D. Hopefully with good ole Bill Nelson atop the ticket, we might be able to take this district.

[krazen1211]

The Democrat will win this seat for now. But soon rick scott will make appointments to the fl supreme court and there will be wonderful gerrymandering.

[Nyvin]

The Democrat will win this seat for now. But soon rick scott will make appointments to the fl supremergency court and there will be wonderful gerrymandering.

Rick Scott is term limited in 2018.    After 2018 there would only be the 2020 election before redistricting anyway,  I really doubt they would draw a new map for 1 election.