FL-27: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen to retire from Congress

[TheSaint250]

FL-25 only barely voted for Trump and that was because of the Collier County portion which is more Republican than Miami-Dade County. More likely than not it will be contested, since Democrats have a limited offense list to play from.

Take a bare Trump win and add Diaz-Balart performing at least 10 points better among hispanics and that district looks a lot less contestable.

Yeah, FL-25 is not going blue any time soon.
The presidential numbers make it contestable in a midterm election. You have to play a lot of places to win.

[Donerail]

FL-25 only barely voted for Trump and that was because of the Collier County portion which is more Republican than Miami-Dade County. More likely than not it will be contested, since Democrats have a limited offense list to play from.

Take a bare Trump win and add Diaz-Balart performing at least 10 points better among hispanics and that district looks a lot less contestable.

If the Democrats can't even contest a district Trump won by not even 2 points then what the heck are they supposed to do?

Put their money into FL-26 and FL-27?

[Pericles]

Yes! One step closer to a Democratic House majority!

[Figueira]

Not contesting FL-25 would be incredibly stupid. Fortunately the DCCC isn't that stupid, because they have it on their list of targets.

[Kingpoleon]

Goodbye FF. Maybe Rodrigo Lehtinehen will run.

[ajc0918]

Dems currently hold 11 seats in Florida versus 16 for the GOP.

What are the odds they can get a majority of Florida seats? It would require them to flip FL-27 (IRL), FL-26 (Curbelo), and one of either FL-25 (Diaz Balart) or FL-18 (Mast). Thoughts?

[Figueira]

Seems unlikely, but possible. Are there any other R seats that could flip or are those the only ones?

[BuckeyeNut]

27, 26, 25 doesn't seem out of the question.

[publicunofficial]

Seems unlikely, but possible. Are there any other R seats that could flip or are those the only ones?

The next closest seats would be FL-06, FL-12, FL-16, and FL-03. All of those are pretty damn unlikely.

[Donerail]

JJR is in.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

JJR is in.

Glorious news!

[Donerail]

Seems unlikely, but possible. Are there any other R seats that could flip or are those the only ones?

The next closest seats would be FL-06, FL-12, FL-16, and FL-03. All of those are pretty damn unlikely.

Eh, I think FL-16 and FL-03 are just about as much on the table as a seat like FL-18 (though of course 25-26-27 is the easiest path). Dems have been competitive in FL-18 b/c it contained St. Lucie, which provided a lot of Dem votes, but St. Lucie went heavily for Trump (a 10-point swing). This is a nice microcosm of a broader Democratic problem with working-class whites that simply isn't being compensated for with shifts in, say, solid-GOP Martin County or the Republican-leaning northern suburbs of Palm Beach. The 3rd is probably harder to pull off, especially in a midterm year given the extent to which the Dem base relies on young voters, but I'd think the 16th is about on par with the 18th in terms of pickup odds.

[ajc0918]

Seems unlikely, but possible. Are there any other R seats that could flip or are those the only ones?

The next closest seats would be FL-06, FL-12, FL-16, and FL-03. All of those are pretty damn unlikely.

Eh, I think FL-16 and FL-03 are just about as much on the table as a seat like FL-18 (though of course 25-26-27 is the easiest path). Dems have been competitive in FL-18 b/c it contained St. Lucie, which provided a lot of Dem votes, but St. Lucie went heavily for Trump (a 10-point swing). This is a nice microcosm of a broader Democratic problem with working-class whites that simply isn't being compensated for with shifts in, say, solid-GOP Martin County or the Republican-leaning northern suburbs of Palm Beach. The 3rd is probably harder to pull off, especially in a midterm year given the extent to which the Dem base relies on young voters, but I'd think the 16th is about on par with the 18th in terms of pickup odds.

A little off topic but it will be interesting to see how FL-16 looks like after 2020, after 2010 it lost  a lot of its rural voters and with the growth in Manatee and South Hillsborough I would expect any new rendition of this district to be more democratic. Of course the GOP will be creative I'm sure but the growth in this district seems to favor Democrats as suburbs like Brandon/Riverview have become pretty solid for Dems.

[Hindsight was 2020]

JJR is in.

Damn man the dems are getting their star recruits to run in big seats it's like 2006 all over again

[Adam Griffin]

Call me crazy, but I think 15 & 26 are the most vulnerable when balancing fundamentals. 16, 18 and 25 come in behind that, followed by 3, 6 & 12.

[KingSweden]

JJR is in.

This is now Lean D, IMO

[The Other Castro]

The overall rating for House control in 2018 is quickly becoming, if not already, a Tossup.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

JJR seems decent enough I guess. I never cared for IRL anyway.

[Donerail]

Call me crazy, but I think 15 & 26 are the most vulnerable when balancing fundamentals. 16, 18 and 25 come in behind that, followed by 3, 6 & 12.

15 is tricky because it should be winnable but there just isn't any base or any sort of local Democratic operation. The Democrats haven't won a State House race in any part of Polk County in my lifetime, and the district contains the more conservative western half of the county (the eastern half is closer to Orlando and has been growing steadily more blue, but the western half has resisted any change). Hillsborough has been better, but there have still been precious few Democratic wins in Tampa's eastern burbs.

[The Other Castro]

Republican State Sens. René García and Anitere Flores both pass on running for this seat.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2017/05/two-republicans-say-no-to-running-for-ros-lehtinens-seat.html

[MAINEiac4434]

Republican State Sens. René García and Anitere Flores both pass on running for this seat.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2017/05/two-republicans-say-no-to-running-for-ros-lehtinens-seat.html

Damn.

[Nyvin]

Republican State Sens. René García and Anitere Flores both pass on running for this seat.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2017/05/two-republicans-say-no-to-running-for-ros-lehtinens-seat.html

Flores was probably their best candidate to run....I wonder who they go to now?   

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican State Sens. René García and Anitere Flores both pass on running for this seat.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2017/05/two-republicans-say-no-to-running-for-ros-lehtinens-seat.html

Flores was probably their best candidate to run....I wonder who they go to now?   

Probably the guy who is already in: Miami-Dade Commissioner Bruno Barreiro

[Donerail]

Republican State Sens. René García and Anitere Flores both pass on running for this seat.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2017/05/two-republicans-say-no-to-running-for-ros-lehtinens-seat.html

Flores was probably their best candidate to run....I wonder who they go to now?   

Probably the guy who is already in: Miami-Dade Commissioner Bruno Barreiro

Unlikely—Barreiro is not a household name, and the RPOF will at least put up a fight for this seat. If I were chair I'd want Raquel Regalado, who is rumored to be eyeing the seat. López-Cantera and Jeanette Núñez are the other names I've heard in connection with the race—any of the three could probably push out Barreiro.

It's also worth noting that the seat includes the home of one John Ellis Bush. Just saying.

[Gass3268]

Republican State Sens. René García and Anitere Flores both pass on running for this seat.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2017/05/two-republicans-say-no-to-running-for-ros-lehtinens-seat.html

Flores was probably their best candidate to run....I wonder who they go to now?   

Probably the guy who is already in: Miami-Dade Commissioner Bruno Barreiro

Unlikely—Barreiro is not a household name, and the RPOF will at least put up a fight for this seat. If I were chair I'd want Raquel Regalado, who is rumored to be eyeing the seat. López-Cantera and Jeanette Núñez are the other names I've heard in connection with the race—any of the three could probably push out Barreiro. Jose Felix Diaz could also do it, though conventional wisdom says he prefers SD-40 and the US Attorney job (not necessarily in that order).

It's also worth noting that the seat includes the home of one John Ellis Bush. Just saying.

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