Do people who think Le Pen can "because Trump" understand math?
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  Do people who think Le Pen can "because Trump" understand math?
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Question: Do people who think Le Pen can "because Trump" understand math?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 26

Author Topic: Do people who think Le Pen can "because Trump" understand math?  (Read 834 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« on: April 30, 2017, 06:52:21 PM »

Clearly no. Trump wasn't down 20 points. Le Pen winning would be equivalent to Trump winning Massachusetts, not winning at all (and he didn't win the popular vote anyway, which is what counts in France, so...)
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mieastwick
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« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2017, 07:21:37 PM »

Obama won Indiana, so this isn't too hard given the right circumstances.
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SWE
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« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2017, 07:23:29 PM »

You can use this logic to justify predicting literally anything.

"I don't think the grass will turn blue while the sky turns green"

"LOL JUST LIKE TRUMP WAS SUPPOSED TO LOSE LMAO CHECKMATE*
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SWE
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« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2017, 07:25:04 PM »

Obama won Indiana, so this isn't too hard given the right circumstances.
And? Polls of Indiana leading up to the election had Obama and McCain about tied, so I'm not sure what you're getting at?
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mieastwick
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« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2017, 07:58:49 PM »

Obama won Indiana, so this isn't too hard given the right circumstances.
And? Polls of Indiana leading up to the election had Obama and McCain about tied, so I'm not sure what you're getting at?
Polls can change in response to new events.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2017, 08:08:31 PM »

Obama won Indiana, so this isn't too hard given the right circumstances.
And? Polls of Indiana leading up to the election had Obama and McCain about tied, so I'm not sure what you're getting at?
Polls can change in response to new events.

True, but I think the affect ISIS terrorist attacks have on the French electorate has been maxed out at this point given all of the events that have unfolded there.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2017, 09:12:24 AM »

Obama won Indiana, so this isn't too hard given the right circumstances.
And? Polls of Indiana leading up to the election had Obama and McCain about tied, so I'm not sure what you're getting at?
Polls can change in response to new events.

What is going to cause a 20 point swing in one week?
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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2017, 09:18:52 AM »

Obama won Indiana, so this isn't too hard given the right circumstances.
And? Polls of Indiana leading up to the election had Obama and McCain about tied, so I'm not sure what you're getting at?
Polls can change in response to new events.

What is going to cause a 20 point swing in one week?

A major terrorist attack.
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Vosem
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« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2017, 12:34:55 PM »

Obama won Indiana, so this isn't too hard given the right circumstances.
And? Polls of Indiana leading up to the election had Obama and McCain about tied, so I'm not sure what you're getting at?
Polls can change in response to new events.

What is going to cause a 20 point swing in one week?

A major terrorist attack.

I mean, the only clear-cut example of one of these causing a large swing is Spain 2004, and that caused a 7-point swing to the left...

But even that was due to the right stepping in it and their PM-candidate conspiratorially declaring that it was perpetrated by Basque separatists instead of (as it clearly was) Islamists, rather than due to the attack itself. Without some very stupid mistake like that, terrorist attacks that happen during a campaign don't swing elections.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2017, 01:24:28 PM »

Could Le Pen win? Absolutely. Is it likely? No. Would a Le Pen win be comparable to Trump's win? Not really.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2017, 03:20:15 PM »

LePen was never going to win under any scenario. I wouldn't say these people don't understand math, they just don't understand Europe.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2017, 03:49:28 PM »

Of course not, but I'm starting to believe that she will significantly beat expectations and poll closer to 45% than to 40.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2017, 04:35:24 PM »

There's a very significant difference between American electoral system and French one. If the latter had a popular vote system with a runoff, Trump wouldn't have won.

I can Le Pen coming closer than predicted now, but there's no palatable comparison.
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