Would the above poster win your congressional district in presidential election?

[NOVA Green]

Hmmm.....

Currently residing in OR CD-04, which is the heart of Southern Oregon Timber Country and Mill Communities, although you do have Metro Eugene-Springfield, which is a mixture of a traditional Mill community, combined with a large Liberal University area contingent, as well as working-class Democratic places like West Eugene and Springfield.

I suspect that if DeFazio retires, Democratic voters in the CD would likely want to select a candidate with some "local roots", since this district might well turn into a tossup or slight Dem lean in a Post-Defazio era.

I don't think Arch would necessarily run so well if he were to chose going the 'Pub primary route.

My suggestion would be that Arch relocate to the Eugene area in the very near future and get heavily involved in Lane County Democratic Politics, since this is the building block for any successful candidate to not only win the primaries, but also consolidate support prior to the General Election.

Additionally, it wouldn't hurt to bone up on Timber Politics, in order to be able to speak to the wider electorate and show that one can successfully navigate the minefield of "Jobs & Environmental Issues".

It doesn't hurt to run as an economic protectionist out here, since rural communities dependent upon logging, millworkers in the Seneca Mill and elsewhere, not to mention environmentalists in overwhelmingly Democratic Precincts in Inner West and South Eugene, all agree that our logs and recycled paper shouldn't be shipped over to Mills in China, only to be reimported to the PacNW in the form of sawdust and recycled TP.

Nothing wrong with pushing for a $15/Hr Minimum Wage, talking about taking on the Big Drug companies, "Single Payer", and all that in a district with an increasingly aging population especially in the most Republican precincts and cities within the district.

Can Arch successfully represent himself as a local resident, talk "bread and butter economics"?

I have absolute confidence that Arch could win OR CD-04 in 2020, assuming DeFazio retires, but better to move from Wisconsin to Oregon sooner rather than later....

Also, Wisconsin/Oregon compare and contrasts should go over pretty well, considering that logging country in Oregon was initially settled from Scandinavian loggers from MN/WI and upstate MI.

Doesn't hurt to remind Oregonians in this district about all of that, not to mention Dairy Farming (WI/OR overlaps), and all of the great things like Citizen's Initiatives the Progressive Movement.

Arch--- if you come out here I would happily work as a campaign adviser, Nym's right down the road in CD-04 West of Eugene, and we can all go on a road trip and I'll show you both all around the district....

[NOVA Green]

Ooops... posted about Arch in OR CD-04, not realizing other posters had jumped in before.

My comments and invite still stand however....

[Bidenworth2020]

thanks for the detail!

I live in MD 06 as of recently, and I think you would do well! MD-06 Contains the panhandle of MD, and most of MoCo.  They are very rich here, but Kennedy dems, so I would say 60-40

I will give you the same offer

[West_Midlander]

pm73: Nope, NC-2 here

[fhtagn]

If he runs as a dem, pretty easily.

[West_Midlander]

As the Dem nominee, a fhtagn landslide could permit it. (probably a 8+% lead nationally)

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

A potato with a (D) next to it would win in my CD.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

If you run as a Democrat, you would be a perfect fit for Louisville.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

If you run as a Democrat, you would be a perfect fit for Louisville.

Louisville is a beautiful city. Smaller in size relative to other so called "destination cities," but there's a ton to do in the Louisville area and the topography in the surrounding region is gorgeous. Plus, every time I've visited, the people have been almost impossibly polite, friendly and helpful.

Skip.

[Bidenworth2020]

as a dem, oh yeah

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No

[Bidenworth2020]

as a dem ofc

[Lord Admirale]

Nope

[Lachi]

No, although it would be quite close, as even though my electorate is almost all rural, it is a very moderate one, and it would be 2 centralists against each other. the fact that you are an indy would be your downfall, as the only indys that get elected here are progressive. You would win my state district, however

[Bidenworth2020]

off

[The Govanah Jake]

Unless your running against a Moderate figure then your secure for a 49-53% victory.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Decent chance against 45, but against anyone else, probably not.

[_]

Yes very easily (Good fit for IL-3)

[RFayette]

No chance, but would've been a great fit 30 years ago

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very good fit for TX-03, so yes.

[The Govanah Jake]

As a Democrat it's probally a tossup

[TDAS04]

No.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

For sure.

[_]

No, purely because she's trans. (IL-3)

[MAINEiac4434]

No, purely because he's a Republican (would do pretty well, though, because he's rather moderate).